K1 vs CR1

[AndiB 677]

2 hours ago, Mike E said:

Repeating the argument with the same data does not make the argument.

 

Just because cases from X days ago are being processed does not mean cases from X+1 days ago or X-1 days ago are not being processed.

 

I am more interested in and see as more  meaningful, the average wait of those who recently  had interviews. Even when I change the 90 at the end of the URLs to 30 days, CR-1 is still faster (566 days for K-1 vs 543 days for CR-1).

 

Every K-1 beneficiary and petitioner says that. Then reality hits. And  this website and others  have daily complaints / questions about 

 

* being bored at home

* home sick

* can they work remotely in the U.S. without work authorization

* I-751 is taking too long

* my extension letter expired and I did not get an unrestricted SS card. How do I work?

 

Next year you can add to the list:

* I-485 costs too much

* what do you mean I-131 and I-765 are not free

* I-751 costs too much

* I got a 96 month extension letter

 

I did a what-if analysis on whether my wife and I should have done CR-1 instead of K-1, and CR-1 won hands down, despite having approval times for I-129F, I-485, I-751 that people filing today can only dream of.  And the what-if assumed that we would drag out the CR-1 process so that my wife entered the U.S. on our 2 year wedding anniversary.  
 

 

And yet the trend line that keeps getting posted as proof that K-1 is faster is also a trend line showing K-1 processing times going up. 

 

Nonetheless, I concede that K-1’s real trend line is better than CR-1’s for now. Whether it overtakes CR-1 and gets to 350 days in 12 months I doubt (because no data is being presented to support that argument).

 

Regardless our K-1 case was about 330 days (less than 350) and as noted in my what-if analysis, 330 days was a juice not worth the squeeze.

 

I always prioritize the interests of the beneficiary. K-1 is not in the best interests of the beneficiary and if there

are K-2s under age 18, not in their interests either.

 

 

I can't link to outside of vj sources but you can also know by following when they start a new month, they start a new month every 3weeks, ie they're speeding up by a week every month so RIGHT now the timelines are similar but projected K1 is faster. 

 

Obviously this can change but same can be said for cr1. I just want people to acknowledge the k1 is speeding up and likely to be faster than cr1 when somebody asks which is faster 

They didn't ask which is better...obv they should be informed of pros and cons but the k1 is almost certainly faster for new filers

[TBoneTX 45,288]

One post has been removed upon its author's request.

 

Another post, by one experienced member to another experienced member, has been removed because of untoward accusations of an "attack."

 

More posts, by a newer member in response to experienced members, have been removed because of needling/badgering.

 

Post respectfully, or refrain from posting.

 

VJ Moderation

[Redro 4,611]

3 hours ago, AndiB said:

I can't link to outside of vj sources but you can also know by following when they start a new month, they start a new month every 3weeks, ie they're speeding up by a week every month so RIGHT now the timelines are similar but projected K1 is faster. 

 

Obviously this can change but same can be said for cr1. I just want people to acknowledge the k1 is speeding up and likely to be faster than cr1 when somebody asks which is faster 

They didn't ask which is better...obv they should be informed of pros and cons but the k1 is almost certainly faster for new filers

But "faster" on average. 

 

K1 has more "certainty"  when it comes to USCIS stage- it is the same for all petitions because they mostly all go through California (unless there are petitioner issues and it goes through Vermont). 

 

Processing times for spousal visas are all over the place. 

 

1.) 5 service centers and you cannot choose your service center and many times you don't always know which service center you are at (sometimes you only     find out after NOA2)

2.) NVC times fluctuate 32 days (early 2021) to 90 days (late 2021/early 2022) to 15 days (present day)

3.) Time from DQ to interview by country varies from 6 weeks to 2 years.

 

If we are going to compare which is faster using averages. We really should be comparing times by country to see if switching from K1 to spousal is faster. 

 

The UK average from start to finish is: 481 days (spousal) vs 583 (K1)

The Nigeria average is :  834 days (spousal) vs 635 (K1)

 

As OP is from the Philippines: 461 days (spousal) vs 632 days (K1)

 

*I used the last 10 NOA1 to Interview timelines for each country, 

 

K1 has the advantage of skipping the NVC stage (only the consulate reviews the paperwork) and the ability to schedule your own interview. 

 

Proponents of K1 should give suggestions about why they value K1 and the advantages over CR1.  Believe it or not @Crazy Cat has amended his list in the past It really isn't just "his" list.  

 

 

 

 

Edited July 23, 2023 by Redro

[Boiler 45,505]

It should be easy enough to make a decision tree, but some of the factors would need to be weighted. One of the common issues I have seen is not surprisingly people change their minds as to what is important, I think ability to work is the most common one.

 

I agree K1 has a higher risk from a Beneficiaries perspective but  even that can vary from some to a lot.

[SalishSea 17,829]

8 hours ago, Vashezzo said:

People are so quick here to push for the CR-1 visa over the K-1. I don't understand it.

According to the VJ trends pages, K-1 is currently about 2 months faster than CR-1. Does the OP here, who is already 4 months into the process, really want to start over?

 

This average also hides the immense country-dependence of the CR-1, something that I rarely see mentioned on this forum by the CR-1 advocates.

I analyzed the timelines pages to get a sense of how much beneficiary country matters for each visa type, my methods are below:

·       For K-1, I pulled the “Avg. Days btw consulate received and Interview” times for each country,

·       for CR-1 I pulled the “Avg. Days btw NOA2 and Interview”

·       To account for the difference in data presentation, I then added 98 days to each K-1 number for NOA2->NVC-> Consulate received status.

·       This gets me an NOA2->Interview time that’s directly comparable to the CR-1 number.

Now that I have post-NOA2 numbers for K-1 vs CR-1, I’ll trim the most extreme outliers and find the difference between 3^rd quickest country and 3^rd slowest country.

·       For K-1, there’s a 148 day spread (263 in Vietnam, vs 115 in Chile).

·       For CR-1 there’s a 558 day spread (644 in Ethiopia vs 86 in Chile).

WOW. That spread is huge, beneficiary country matters a ton for CR-1, but not  as much for K-1.

 

But wait you say – what matters is the difference in wait time between K-1 and CR-1 for any particular individual, not the spread within each visa.  Well, I crunched the numbers on that too.

·       Using the timeline data from before, I added 43 days to the K-1 values to account for the current difference in NOA2 times (388 days vs ~345 days)

·       Then, for any countries that had entries in both the K-1 and CR-1 timelines, I subtracted their average NOA1->Interview times to get a “K-1 vs CR-1 wait time differential”

 

·       I’ve summarized the results in the table below

Time Difference Percentage of Filers 31-100 days faster for CR-1 12.6% 1-30 days faster for CR-1 13.5%     1-30 days faster for K-1 16.7% 31-90 days faster for K-1 22.8% 91-180 days faster for K-1 9.0% 181-360 days faster for K-1 15.9% 361-650 days faster for K-1 9.5%

 

If you were choosing between K-1 and CR-1, wouldn’t you really want to know if you were in the 25% of filers where K-1 is 6 months to 2 years faster? Even if you need to wait 5 months for EAD (the current average time), you’d still be able to start working in the US quicker on a K-1 visa than on a CR-1.

For emphasis, over 25% of filers would be able to get American jobs FASTER by filing for a K-1 vs a CR-1. This also affects the cost difference between the visas - in many cases, the wage difference working in the US vs. the fiancee’s home country would make up for the extra adjustment of status costs within a month or two. For filers in those countries, a K-1 is strictly superior to a CR-1. You get to unite faster. You end up with more money in your pockets. AND your fiancée gets a long vacation off work while getting used to their new life. The only reason they would ever want to file CR-1 is if they somehow want to spend the first few years of their marriage physically apart. That’s not something I’d ever want for myself - but I guess for some, long distance marriage could be a lifestyle choice?

 

Anyway, on the other extreme, the maximum time gain for a CR-1 for any country was about 100 days. Any K-1 filer who decides to switch to CR-1 would be delaying their approval unless they can get married, travel to their fiancee’s country, and file an I-130 all within 100 days of their I-129f NOA1. The cost of travel (and the sunk cost of the I-129f petition) counts against the cost savings of a CR-1, so overall swapping visa types is unlikely to save much time or money for the filers, and in many cases will take longer or cost MORE than sticking with K-1.

 

Lastly, if we move past the empirical aspects of each visa, there are also personal/emotional aspects. Not everyone feels ready to immediately enter in to the financial/legal/religious (if applicable) commitments and obligations that marriage entails. Some people despise the idea of being in a lost distance marriage. Advising someone to get married just so they can petition for an (often not actually) “better” visa has always seemed to me like it discounts the human aspect of the relationship. On a personal level, when my fiancée and I started to discuss moving and visas, her questions were “how can I be with you the fastest”, not “what’s the quickest way to get a green card” or “I want to start earning US wages ASAP”. For us, a K-1 was the best visa. It’s the same for many, many other couples as well.

You must not have been around during the height of Covid, when actual spouses of US citizens were prioritized over unrelated fiances at consulates worldwide.  I did a K-1 in 2018.  Processing times were relatively fast.  Seeing what happened during Covid convinced me that CR-1 is superior.

[TBoneTX 45,288]

A hijack post and replies to it have been split from this thread into a new topic in the Student & Exchange Visitor Visas forum.