Confused about timelines, how to make a guess?

[VirginiaYasin 0]

Hi all, i'm confused about estimating how long the process for K1 takes for my foreign fiance?

 

I know for each application, first step is USCIS, then NVC and consulate. I know things can change however is it possible to AT LEAST guess a number?

Right now, USCIS website says: Nebraska takes 5 months,  California takes 16months, Vermont takes 9months. 

Also some people says USCIS thinks this will reduce to 6 months soon. (They are reducing backlogs)

I hear some people arrive USA after 1 year.

 

I know nobody can say it for sure but as an estimate, can someone please help me guess how long it takes from day 1 to arriving to USA in general? (if applying today)

Country is Turkey.

 

Without knowing this, I am having hard time deciding K1 or CR1 thank you again.

[Boiler 45,476]

Most K1s go through California

 

Say 18 months as an average but add on a bit for Turkey as it is backlogged 

[Teabtea 1]

Your case will be processed in California service center and right now it takes about 12-13 moths. If you apply today, you will most likely have your NOA2 in less than 9-10 months. However, there are still always cases that get left behind (people waiting more than 16 months) and, if you make any mistakes, you could get an RFE which prolongs the process. After NOA2, you have to wait for NVC which currently takes about 90 days (often more). Medical and embassies have different wait times depending on location, so that is weeks to months of extra waiting. It will probably take AT LEAST 12-13 months if you apply today to get to the US. 

 

If you can't decide between K1 and CR1, choose CR1! With CR1 you can plan a wedding and get married wherever you want, then, when you get the visa and enter the US you can travel and work. With K1 you won't be able to work or leave the US for a while and planning a wedding is going to be a pain.

[Mike E 11,739]

33 minutes ago, VirginiaYasin said:

Hi all, i'm confused about estimating how long the process for K1 takes for my foreign fiance?

 

I know for each application, first step is USCIS, then NVC and consulate. I know things can change however is it possible to AT LEAST guess a number?

Right now, USCIS website says: Nebraska takes 5 months,  California takes 16months, Vermont takes 9months. 

Also some people says USCIS thinks this will reduce to 6 months soon. (They are reducing backlogs)

I hear some people arrive USA after 1 year.

 

I know nobody can say it for sure but as an estimate, can someone please help me guess how long it takes from day 1 to arriving to USA in general? (if applying today)

Country is Turkey.

 

Without knowing this, I am having hard time deciding K1 or CR1 thank you again.

K-1 https://www.visajourney.com/timeline/stats.php?history=90

 

CR-1 https://www.visajourney.com/timeline/irstats.php?history=90
 

CR-1 is faster

[Crazy Cat 41,842]

35 minutes ago, VirginiaYasin said:

Without knowing this, I am having hard time deciding K1 or CR1 thank you again.

 

Every couple has their own priorities, and each couple must decide which visa is better for their situation.

K-1 
  More expensive than CR-1
  Requires Adjustment of Status after marriage (expensive and requires a lot of paperwork)
  Spouse can not leave the US until she/he receives approved Advance Parole (approx 6-8 months) 
  Spouse can not work until she/he receives EAD (approx 6-8 months) 
  Some people have had problems with driver licenses, Social Security cards, leases, bank account during this period 
  Spouse will not receive Green Card for many months after Adjustment of Status is filed.
  A K-1 might be a better choice when 18-21 year old children are immigrating also
  In some situations, marriage can affect certain Home country benefits, making a K-1 a better choice 
  A denied K-1 is sent back to USCIS to expire
  K-1 entrant cannot file for citizenship until after having Green Card for 3 years.

CR-1
  Less expensive than K-1 
  No Adjustment of Status(I-485, I-131, I-765) required. 
  Spouse can immediately travel outside the US 
  Spouse is authorized to work immediately upon arrival. 
  Spouse receives Social Security Card and Green Card within 2 or 3 weeks after entering the US 
  Opening a bank account, getting a driver's license, etc. are very easily accomplished with GC, SS card, and passport.
  Spouse has legal permanent Resident status IMMEDIATELY upon entry to US.
  The clock for citizenship filing starts immediately upon entry to the US.
   

 

*****This topic has been moved to What Visa Do I Need?

[Crazy Cat 41,842]

14 minutes ago, Teabtea said:

Your case will be processed in California service center and right now it takes about 12-13 moths. If you apply today, you will most likely have your NOA2 in less than 9-10 months. However, there are still always cases that get left behind (people waiting more than 16 months) and, if you make any mistakes, you could get an RFE which prolongs the process. After NOA2, you have to wait for NVC which currently takes about 90 days (often more). Medical and embassies have different wait times depending on location, so that is weeks to months of extra waiting. It will probably take AT LEAST 12-13 months if you apply today to get to the US. 

 

If you can't decide between K1 and CR1, choose CR1! With CR1 you can plan a wedding and get married wherever you want, then, when you get the visa and enter the US you can travel and work. With K1 you won't be able to work or leave the US for a while and planning a wedding is going to be a pain.

The average K-1 (from NOA1 to Interview) is 625 days according to the VJ analysis tool which is driven by member data.  I strongly concur with your advice concerning a CR-1.  It is much superior, imho.

Edited July 7, 2023 by Crazy Cat

[VirginiaYasin 0]

20 minutes ago, Boiler said:

Most K1s go through California

 

Say 18 months as an average but add on a bit for Turkey as it is backlogged 

thank you very much. can you please teach how to estimate this for CR1 as well?

 

also please answer if you can: do you not believe USCIS takes now 6-12 months to process K1 now? I know it changes for everyone, and it depends but how come some people only took 1 year if california takes 18months only USCIS part? thanks again.

9 minutes ago, Crazy Cat said:

The average K-1 (from NOA1 to Interview) is 625 days according to the VJ analysis tool which is driven by member data.  I strongly concur with your advice concerning a CR-1.  It is much superior, imho.

can you share that tool and how to use it? thanks.

[VirginiaYasin 0]

16 minutes ago, Mike E said:

K-1 https://www.visajourney.com/timeline/stats.php?history=90

 

CR-1 https://www.visajourney.com/timeline/irstats.php?history=90
 

CR-1 is faster

thank you, 

 

can you please help me understand what i asked above? do you not believe USCIS takes now 6-12 months to process K1 now? I know it changes for everyone, and it depends but how come some people only took 1 year if california takes 18months only USCIS part? thanks again.

[Crazy Cat 41,842]

1 minute ago, VirginiaYasin said:

 

can you share that tool and how to use it? thanks.

USCIS Immigration Processing Times - VisaJourney

[Boiler 45,476]

CR1 takes about the same may as well wait for IR1

[Mike E 11,739]

22 minutes ago, VirginiaYasin said:

do you not believe USCIS takes now 6-12 months to process K1 now?

I do not believe it.

 

Even USCIS says 80 percent of I-129Fs are processed in 16.5 months.

 

 

[igoyougoduke 1,656]

2 hours ago, VirginiaYasin said:

Hi all, i'm confused about estimating how long the process for K1 takes for my foreign fiance?

 

I know for each application, first step is USCIS, then NVC and consulate. I know things can change however is it possible to AT LEAST guess a number?

Right now, USCIS website says: Nebraska takes 5 months,  California takes 16months, Vermont takes 9months. 

Also some people says USCIS thinks this will reduce to 6 months soon. (They are reducing backlogs)

I hear some people arrive USA after 1 year.

 

I know nobody can say it for sure but as an estimate, can someone please help me guess how long it takes from day 1 to arriving to USA in general? (if applying today)

Country is Turkey.

 

Without knowing this, I am having hard time deciding K1 or CR1 thank you again.

 your question that is personal to your case has no answer. While some one might get approved in 3 months while others wait for 3 years. 

 

There is absolutely no way to tell how much time an individual case can take. all every one is providing is an estimate .

 

What USCIS provides is an estimate of time for 80% of cases. Do you know your case in that 80% is like asking what number will hit the lottery 

[TexasRafael 134]

You cannot guess and all those numbers about the processing centers themselves are not reliable.  I say plan on at least 2 years if all goes well before your fiancee arrives in the US.

[Redro 4,611]

5 hours ago, VirginiaYasin said:

Hi all, i'm confused about estimating how long the process for K1 takes for my foreign fiance?

 

I know for each application, first step is USCIS, then NVC and consulate. I know things can change however is it possible to AT LEAST guess a number?

Right now, USCIS website says: Nebraska takes 5 months,  California takes 16months, Vermont takes 9months. 

Also some people says USCIS thinks this will reduce to 6 months soon. (They are reducing backlogs)

I hear some people arrive USA after 1 year.

 

I know nobody can say it for sure but as an estimate, can someone please help me guess how long it takes from day 1 to arriving to USA in general? (if applying today)

Country is Turkey.

 

Without knowing this, I am having hard time deciding K1 or CR1 thank you again.

You won’t be able to know how long the CR1 will take because

1.) You can’t choose your service center 

and 

2.) even if your NOA1 indicates your are at Vermont… you might be transferred to California or Nebraska while you wait… 

The best advice I can give is to plan on 12 months. If the petition is approved before that EXCELLENT. If it isn’t you can hope for a long time waiting so your partner arrives on IR1 as opposed to CR1 and you save a lot of money and heartache as you skip the ROC phase in the US. 

[VirginiaYasin 0]

2 hours ago, Redro said:

You won’t be able to know how long the CR1 will take because

1.) You can’t choose your service center 

and 

2.) even if your NOA1 indicates your are at Vermont… you might be transferred to California or Nebraska while you wait… 

The best advice I can give is to plan on 12 months. If the petition is approved before that EXCELLENT. If it isn’t you can hope for a long time waiting so your partner arrives on IR1 as opposed to CR1 and you save a lot of money and heartache as you skip the ROC phase in the US. 

thank you and i understand you completly. you are right.

12 months is actually not bad, but please help me understand: each service center on uscis processing time shows over 15months, so how is it 12 months total?

do you think if i prepare myself for 18 months, it is correct?