K1 processing time up to 16.5 months at California center

[New Romantics 188]

 

https://egov.uscis.gov/processing-times/

[GinoNiña 182]

This is bad news! 
Im sure lots of pc savvy filers here are able to find out the reason behind this. 
VJ moderates, what do you think what happened?

[AndiB 677]

Think it's the wide spread of focus. I don't think they've hit 80% on Nov which is now at 16-16.5 months waiting. We also only started processing enough to hit backlog in feb I think??

So potentially wait time was creeping very slowly until that point and eventually we'll see it start to come down. USCIS using 80% over 6 months means it'll probably take a couple months to see it come back down. 

 

Still seems odd compared to data we see though

[Sammy_2496 116]

Ugh  and i-130 wait times have went up too… well, minus Vermont Centre from what i have seen.

Edited March 23, 2023 by Sammy_2496

[Crazy Cat 41,814]

1 hour ago, GinoNiña said:

what do you think what happened?

Still Not enough staff to handle the in-bound cases.  Residual effect of the pandemic? 

[myohmyohmy 15]

This really doesn't mean much so I wouldn't worry.  That 16.5 month is based on the last 6 months applications that were processes/approved/denied, but it's NOT an average.  Say 16.5 months ago, we will say November 2021, 1,000 people applied and no one has applied since.  80% of those cases, 800, were processed within 16.5 months of submittal.  799 could have been processed in December 2021, 1 in February 2023  and that's 80% within 16.5 months.  Or 799 could be processed in February 2023 and 1 in December 2021, that's 80% within 16.5 months.  It doesn't mean much as it's not an average.  

[GinoNiña 182]

If you notice this estimate processing time is very vague. There is no specific date to it. 

 

 

 

 

[Crazy Cat 41,814]

3 minutes ago, myohmyohmy said:

This really doesn't mean much so I wouldn't worry.  That 16.5 month is based on the last 6 months applications that were processes/approved/denied, but it's NOT an average.  Say 16.5 months ago, we will say November 2021, 1,000 people applied and no one has applied since.  80% of those cases, 800, were processed within 16.5 months of submittal.  799 could have been processed in December 2021, 1 in February 2023  and that's 80% within 16.5 months.  Or 799 could be processed in February 2023 and 1 in December 2021, that's 80% within 16.5 months.  It doesn't mean much as it's not an average.  

VJ statistics show average of 14.8 months at California (based totally on VJ member input).  That is down about a month since 1st of the year.

Edited March 23, 2023 by Crazy Cat

[GinoNiña 182]

8 minutes ago, Crazy Cat said:

Still Not enough staff to handle the in-bound cases.  Residual effect of the pandemic? 

Then why only now they changed the processing time? There is no consistency in their part

[Crazy Cat 41,814]

2 minutes ago, GinoNiña said:

Then why only now they changed the processing time? There is no consistency in their part

That is a theme across the entire immigration process, sadly. I think their time estimates have been rising for some time.

[GinoNiña 182]

2 minutes ago, Crazy Cat said:

VJ statistics show average of 14.8 months at California (based totally on VJ member input).  That is down about a month since 1st of the year.

Personally, I would rely more in vj statistics than Uscis. Vj uses real time members inputs. 
unless Uscis has done something that they’re not supposed to be doing, like processing illegal aliens. 

[myohmyohmy 15]

5 minutes ago, GinoNiña said:

Then why only now they changed the processing time? There is no consistency in their part

The processing time may or may not have increased, the 16.5 is not an average, it's 80% of cases decided within 16.5 months.  79% could be approved day 1, 1% 16.5 months later and that's 80% in 16.5 months.  

[New Romantics 188]

19 minutes ago, myohmyohmy said:

This really doesn't mean much so I wouldn't worry.  That 16.5 month is based on the last 6 months applications that were processes/approved/denied, but it's NOT an average.  Say 16.5 months ago, we will say November 2021, 1,000 people applied and no one has applied since.  80% of those cases, 800, were processed within 16.5 months of submittal.  799 could have been processed in December 2021, 1 in February 2023  and that's 80% within 16.5 months.  Or 799 could be processed in February 2023 and 1 in December 2021, that's 80% within 16.5 months.  It doesn't mean much as it's not an average.  

I think this is the most accurate take. The 80% isn't as great of a stat as we think it is. It doesn't tell us much because we don't know how fast 65% or 75% or even 79% etc gets processed. Only 80%

[GinoNiña 182]

Try to check out daily lawfull web. This would clear this up. In this graph, you see a flat line for many months and then at about last few months, the line goes vertical. 

[GinoNiña 182]

This is my official take from me..it’s the algorithms they used.