Current Backlog Estimate

[mw & rg k1 636]

7 minutes ago, Cokes said:

I'm still trying to be really hopeful and optimistic about the possibility USCIS working towards 6 months cycle time goal for FY23, but the current status is just not looking great. Hope everything ends up working out for us Dec 2022 filers....

That would be nice ... when I filed by K1 back in Dec 2021, the expected time for the NOA2 was ~7 Months ... we saw that grow to 15.5 Months and is risking growing again.
They did say even back then that there was a goal of 6 Months .. and if anything it had gotten worse (not better) ... was pleasently suprised to see an increase in activity from 300-600 cases a week to ~1k / week but maintaining cautious optomism.

 

Serious consideration (especially with the pending fee increase for the 485 (AOS), Work Permit, and Travel Permission ...
GO TO YOURs, Get a UTAH wedding and document it, then file for a CR-1 as soon as humanly possible. (if you are sure about them)

 

If you did that asap ... you probably get to citizenship faster than I will (by 2 years or so)

 

 

Edited February 7, 2023 by mw & rg k1

[Cokes 7]

6 minutes ago, mw & rg k1 said:

Happy to reach out once your message get through the system to me.  The graph I presented is a direct (visual) translation of the quarterly forms issued by USCIS since 2013.
(along with source data addresses)....  As for the backlog burndown, I don't know of anyone else doing that exactly.  My script (looking only at 2021 cases) was custom built and uses a custom data record to keep track.  If (and I know it is if) you have coding skills, I can share some of the lessons learned and some psudo code to let you build your own.  It is something that is not refined and not easily maintained (since the USCIS site does tend to crash from time to time)

 

Omg that'd be super awesome. I code poorly but I could get my fiancé to help me on this, and perhaps we can try to build it.

[Ok-Mix 117]

TBH I'd be over the moon if we can get to 12 months by this coming December!

 

🤩

[Cokes 7]

12 minutes ago, mw & rg k1 said:

That would be nice ... when I filed by K1 back in Dec 2021, the expected time for the NOA2 was ~7 Months ... we saw that grow to 15.5 Months and is risking growing again.
They did say even back then that there was a goal of 6 Months .. and if anything it had gotten worse (not better) ... was pleasently suprised to see an increase in activity from 300-600 cases a week to ~1k / week but maintaining cautious optomism.

 

Serious consideration (especially with the pending fee increase for the 485 (AOS), Work Permit, and Travel Permission ...
GO TO YOURs, Get a UTAH wedding and document it, then file for a CR-1 as soon as humanly possible. (if you are sure about them)

 

If you did that asap ... you probably get to citizenship faster than I will (by 2 years or so)

 

 

Yah... We have considered the possibility of withdrawal, getting married in my home country and then file i-130. This seem to make the most sense for citizenship and cost.

 

But then again our main priority is to be able to close the gap, since it's already been processed for 2 months, we're not sure if CR-1 approval date would be earlier than K1 if we were to withdraw our I-129f.

Wish I have known this before we submitted our I-129f. Probably could have went with i-130 instead.

[Naterson 129]

7 minutes ago, Cokes said:

Yah... We have considered the possibility of withdrawal, getting married in my home country and then file i-130. This seem to make the most sense for citizenship and cost.

 

But then again our main priority is to be able to close the gap, since it's already been processed for 2 months, we're not sure if CR-1 approval date would be earlier than K1 if we were to withdraw our I-129f.

Wish I have known this before we submitted our I-129f. Probably could have went with i-130 instead.

The advantage of a Utah wedding is that they have it set up so that as long as you find someone to officiate from Utah you can be anywhere and get married via video conference. That would circumvent the time waiting for a foreign wedding to get registered and that process here. 

 

I was always told to get to the US it's faster k-1, but greencard is faster cr-1.

[mw & rg k1 636]

6 minutes ago, Naterson said:

The advantage of a Utah wedding is that they have it set up so that as long as you find someone to officiate from Utah you can be anywhere and get married via video conference. That would circumvent the time waiting for a foreign wedding to get registered and that process here. 

 

I was always told to get to the US it's faster k-1, but greencard is faster cr-1.

it used to be faster ... and you would have to check local consulate processing times ... but in Brazil, CR-1 (when I filed) was longer than k-1 but there are cases now being approved with full green card before I even have NOA2.  then we have to wait again even after she gets here.

[Naterson 129]

9 minutes ago, mw & rg k1 said:

it used to be faster ... and you would have to check local consulate processing times ... but in Brazil, CR-1 (when I filed) was longer than k-1 but there are cases now being approved with full green card before I even have NOA2.  then we have to wait again even after she gets here.

Yeah, I'm sure it's not the same, it's been a long time since I was looking at the difference. I didn't bother checking if it had changed before submitting for k-1.