F4 Covid Backlog and aging out

[gulkhan 18]

Hello, 

 

I have a question, the F4 visas already take too long to process and now with covid backlog, what happens if a child is close to aging out? Is NVC or USCIS helping with this issue?  

 

Back story, i have a friend who filed for his brother (Pakistan)  and his brother has a child that is now 13 years old. The petition was filed back in 2015 and got approved after 4 months now waiting in line. looking at the backlog and visa bulletin they are now processing 2007 cases in F4. 

 

Thank you! 

[Boiler 45,445]

You are a bit premature, F4 might be another 10 years might be less, 4 months was really quick so he needs to be 21 and 4 months old or younger when the PD becomes current which I would think is unlikely but not impossible.

 

Hopefully any  COVID issues have been cleared well before then.

[gulkhan 18]

31 minutes ago, Boiler said:

You are a bit premature, F4 might be another 10 years might be less, 4 months was really quick so he needs to be 21 and 4 months old or younger when the PD becomes current which I would think is unlikely but not impossible.

 

Hopefully any  COVID issues have been cleared well before then.

Do you think in future the NVC will consider the long backlog because of covid when calculating his age for CSPA? 

[Boiler 45,445]

The long and getting longer wait for a PD is because of the number of people applying.

[Pinkrlion 2,715]

It is not uncommon for derivative children to age out and not immigrate with family. Be prepared for that to happen as there are no laws to prevent it. 

[gulkhan 18]

1 hour ago, Pinkrlion said:

It is not uncommon for derivative children to age out and not immigrate with family. Be prepared for that to happen as there are no laws to prevent it. 

I know but if not for covid related backlog they would have got it on time based on previous timeline, because of covid its almost three years behind. 

 

What im saying will NVC or USCIS consider these backlog? 

[Crazy Cat 41,811]

4 minutes ago, gulkhan said:

I know but if not for covid related backlog they would have got it on time based on previous timeline, because of covid its almost three years behind. 

 

What im saying will NVC or USCIS consider these backlog? 

Covid didn't alter the number of visas available.  The long wait is due to number of people applying vs number of visas allowed per year for that category.   Petition approvals are fast.  Visa number availability is very, very slow.

Edited January 30, 2023 by Crazy Cat

[jan22 3,049]

18 hours ago, gulkhan said:

I know but if not for covid related backlog they would have got it on time based on previous timeline, because of covid its almost three years behind. 

 

What im saying will NVC or USCIS consider these backlog? 

No.  There is no provision of the law to take anything other than the annual numerical limit, set by Congress, into account.

 

I'm not sure what you meant by "...if not for covid related backlog they would have got it on time based on previous timeline...".  The PD advancement is not "...almost three years behind".  When the petition was filed in 2015, the Priority Date (PD) being processed was in early 2002 (e.g., in February 2015 the current PD was 15 Apr 2002).  The earliest time for their PD to be current would have been predicted to be in 2028, more likely 2029 to 2030.  It has been rare for the F4 PD to advance more than 7 or 8 months per year.  Take a look at the approximate advancement per year during  past 12 years, using the February PD as an example:

• 2010 was 15 Nov 1999
• 2011 was 01 Jan 2000, approx. 1.5 months advancement
• 2012 was 08 Sep 2000, approx. 9.25 months
• 2013 was 15 Apr 2001, approx. 7.25 months
• 2014 was 22 Oct 2001, approx. 6.25 months
• 2015 was 15 Apr 2002, approx. 5.75 months
• 2016 was 08 Jun 2003, approx. 12.75 months
• 2017 was 08 Feb 2004, approx. 8 months
• 2018 was 22 Jul 2004, approx. 5.5 months
• 2019 was 22 Jun 2005, approx. 11 months
• 2020 was 01 Jul 2006, approx. 12.5 months
• 2021 was 15 Oct 2006, approx. 3.5 months
• 2022 is  22 Mar 2007, approx. 5.25 months

The average advancement over the 9 pre-COVID years was slightly less than 7.5 (7.47) months per year.  The average advancement in the past 3 years (Feb 2020 to Feb 2022) was approaching an average of 7.1 (7.08) months per year -- certainly not "three years behind" and a difference which could just as easily be explained by an Increased number of applicants as by COVID delays.  As more and more F4 petitions are submitted, the wait time is more likely to increase for those filing now, as Crazy Cat pointed out, since the annual numerical limit is unlikely to change.

[gulkhan 18]

2 hours ago, jan22 said:

No.  There is no provision of the law to take anything other than the annual numerical limit, set by Congress, into account.

 

I'm not sure what you meant by "...if not for covid related backlog they would have got it on time based on previous timeline...".  The PD advancement is not "...almost three years behind".  When the petition was filed in 2015, the Priority Date (PD) being processed was in early 2002 (e.g., in February 2015 the current PD was 15 Apr 2002).  The earliest time for their PD to be current would have been predicted to be in 2028, more likely 2029 to 2030.  It has been rare for the F4 PD to advance more than 7 or 8 months per year.  Take a look at the approximate advancement per year during  past 12 years, using the February PD as an example:

• 2010 was 15 Nov 1999
• 2011 was 01 Jan 2000, approx. 1.5 months advancement
• 2012 was 08 Sep 2000, approx. 9.25 months
• 2013 was 15 Apr 2001, approx. 7.25 months
• 2014 was 22 Oct 2001, approx. 6.25 months
• 2015 was 15 Apr 2002, approx. 5.75 months
• 2016 was 08 Jun 2003, approx. 12.75 months
• 2017 was 08 Feb 2004, approx. 8 months
• 2018 was 22 Jul 2004, approx. 5.5 months
• 2019 was 22 Jun 2005, approx. 11 months
• 2020 was 01 Jul 2006, approx. 12.5 months
• 2021 was 15 Oct 2006, approx. 3.5 months
• 2022 is  22 Mar 2007, approx. 5.25 months

The average advancement over the 9 pre-COVID years was slightly less than 7.5 (7.47) months per year.  The average advancement in the past 3 years (Feb 2020 to Feb 2022) was approaching an average of 7.1 (7.08) months per year -- certainly not "three years behind" and a difference which could just as easily be explained by an Increased number of applicants as by COVID delays.  As more and more F4 petitions are submitted, the wait time is more likely to increase for those filing now, as Crazy Cat pointed out, since the annual numerical limit is unlikely to change.

Thank you, make sense now.  i thought since they are still in 2007 for the last few months was because of covid related backlog. I hope they get it there faster.

 

I am surprised by looking at other F4 cases takes time to approve. My friend's case got approved within a few months. So they cant even use CSPA. Oh well i hope there is no need for it and they all move to US together. 

[powerpuff 6,680]

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