Number of cases processed hit new high!

[FromMexico W/Love 244]

Just now, Obllak said:

First we were thinking to remove "ghost cases", but at the same time we don't want to alter USCIS data we are presenting, so we decided to work on a specific personalized graph that will take this into the consideration. We are tracking this trend now for few days and will continue to do for at least a month, to be more confident on a number before we publish it. 

But yes, there are "plenty" of statuses whose status were changed more than 15 months ago (for instance: a person that filed in January 2021 received RFE in August 2021 and from that point on the case status was not changed). To me it seems like USCIS never received RFER, but I am wondering at the same time why USCIS didn't come back to these cases and change their status to "denied". So far, for us it is a mystery what exactly is happening with those (so far we haven't seen any activity, so we do consider them "ghost cases").

 

Okay awesome! Yeah that makes sense. Like you're saying if someone received an RFE 8 months ago then it is almost like the case doesn't exist anymore. If those cases are truly "ghost cases" than that has a significant impact on our projected timelines ~1 month. 

[New Romantics 188]

Since you're here, what does the pending category show us under total cases? Is it different than case received?

[Obllak[BANNED] 186]

Just now, New Romantics said:

Seems to me those are cases where they either broke up or they got married and filed a 130. they should have withdrawn but never did. interesting

Yes, good point! But since there is a time limit to reply to RFE, I don't understand why they don't automatically change these cases to "denied" after that time passes.

[FromMexico W/Love 244]

 

4 minutes ago, New Romantics said:

Where did you get the 4k number from? I looked at obllaks spreadsheet and it seems that there are only double digits for everyone month from jan to july. Am I missing something?

Just jan-jul 2021 is 4k+ cases. 

[New Romantics 188]

Just now, Obllak said:

Yes, good point! But since there is a time limit to reply to RFE, I don't understand why they don't automatically change these cases to "denied" after that time passes.

Probably too busy to care honestly. I guess a small number of applicants each month ends up just letting the case die 

[Obllak[BANNED] 186]

1 minute ago, FromMexico W/Love said:

 

Okay awesome! Yeah that makes sense. Like you're saying if someone received an RFE 8 months ago then it is almost like the case doesn't exist anymore. If those cases are truly "ghost cases" than that has a significant impact on our projected timelines ~1 month. 

yes, definitely decreases the time!

[FromMexico W/Love 244]

Just now, New Romantics said:

Probably too busy to care honestly. I guess a small number of applicants each month ends up just letting the case die 

Those few cases have really added up though haha

[Obllak[BANNED] 186]

2 minutes ago, New Romantics said:

Since you're here, what does the pending category show us under total cases? Is it different than case received?

"Pending cases" are cases that has been touched, but didn't yet reach the terminal decision. For example, expedition received/denied, transferred, document mailed, case reopened etc. 

[New Romantics 188]

1 minute ago, Obllak said:

"Pending cases" are cases that has been touched, but didn't yet reach the terminal decision. For example, expedition received/denied, transferred, document mailed, case reopened etc. 

Ohh ok good to know!

[Gary Rich 284]

Just now, New Romantics said:

Seems to me those are cases where they either broke up or they got married and filed a 130. they should have withdrawn but never did. interesting

No one really knows that for sure! But what I can say is that, we all know each case is different some are easier than others.. No matter how much you crunch the numbers. The only one who would know

the process is an adjudicator. I'm an Dec 2021 filer some people I know who file after me got approved. The whole thing is a waiting game. A person would have a better chance of hitting the lottery than trying

to figure USCIS.

[New Romantics 188]

5 minutes ago, FromMexico W/Love said:

 

Just jan-jul 2021 is 4k+ cases. 

Wait, looking at this again. Should we not interpret it as 1506 being the final number up to July? That's what I thought this means

[Obllak[BANNED] 186]

Just now, New Romantics said:

Wait, looking at this again. Should we not interpret it as 1506 being the final number up to July? That's what I thought this means

You are right, it is cumulative  

[Bh_sarah 942]

2 minutes ago, New Romantics said:

Wait, looking at this again. Should we not interpret it as 1506 being the final number up to July? That's what I thought this means

Yep, that's how I read it too. It adds up each month, so July has a 1506 backlog because of the previous months pending/untouched being added. 

Edited March 2, 2023 by Bh_sarah

[FromMexico W/Love 244]

Aww schuks it's cumulative hahaha oh well 1500 is still a good number lol 

[AndiB 677]

10 minutes ago, New Romantics said:

Seems to me those are cases where they either broke up or they got married and filed a 130. they should have withdrawn but never did. interesting

Could also be people not meeting 2yr meeting req if they're RFEs for instance as @Obllaksaid.. I've seen quite a lot of people surprised that COVID was not accepted as a reason to ignore the 2yr rule. USCIS will send an RFE to give you a chance to prove you met the req. People may have given up realising they didn't have the evidence needed. I have no idea how long they hold a document for. I've seen 'held for 180 days' pop up with no idea what it refers too. Maybe that's the window before it's dumped? Maybe they're just not going back to confirm they need deletion as they're overworked so not a priority? 

 

USCIS remains a mystery