Number of cases processed hit new high!

[AndiB 677]

1 minute ago, New Romantics said:

So far I have seen the updates in the September and July threads for yesterday and that alone totals to 80 for Tuesday. That's pretty dang good, no? Excited to see the rest this week.

The bulk should be in October too which I haven't seen numbers for so will be interesting 

[New Romantics 188]

Just now, AndiB said:

The bulk should be in October too which I haven't seen numbers for so will be interesting 

And November!! Fingers crossed this is another great week. We just have to sit tight and wait

[AndiB 677]

1 hour ago, New Romantics said:

And November!! Fingers crossed this is another great week. We just have to sit tight and wait

Good news! I looked at July, Sept and Oct threads (aug and nov seem to be missing this week) and we got
Tues: 80+
Wed: 226+!!!!

Someone can double check cause I had a hellish hellish morning so my brain is fried and may have misread things. If I'm right tho we're on track for a high week again, maybe not 800 with monday being a holiday but still 🤩

Edited January 19, 2023 by AndiB

[New Romantics 188]

5 minutes ago, AndiB said:

Good news! I looked at July, Sept and Oct threads (aug and nov seem to be missing this week) and we got
Tues: 80+
Wed: 226+!!!!

Someone can double check cause I had a hellish hellish morning so my brain is fried and may have misread things. If I'm right tho we're on track for a high week again, maybe not 800 with monday being a holiday but still 🤩

I was just looking at this myself and I think your numbers are correct. This is great news!! Excited to see what the total will be by Saturday 🎉

[gooblue 50]

7 hours ago, New Romantics said:

I was just looking at this myself and I think your numbers are correct. This is great news!! Excited to see what the total will be by Saturday 🎉

Yea and imagine if monday had not been a holiday!

And for that matter adding the totals of August and November would make it even higher🥳

Edited January 19, 2023 by gooblue

[GinoNiña 182]

On 1/15/2023 at 4:46 PM, Lynxyonok said:

 

A'ight.

I'm estimating there are presently 23,448 cases between yours and the first wave as of this moment. The latest cases approved were from November 4th, the lowest-numbered November 5th case is 2290014955. I stopped doing precise case counts after my own NOA1, but based on April 2022 and March 2022 having set new records (3503 and 3803 outstanding cases), it's healthy to assume about 3,000 cases between us.

 

So, 23,448.

 

- 7,033 processed in Q4 22

- 7,230 processed in Q3 22

- 6,524 processed in Q2 22

 

The remainder is 2,661. I don't want to use Q1 22 as that was abnormally low, so I will be optimistic and use Q4 22 again. 2,661 is 37% of Q4 22, or 34 days.

 

So, from this moment you are 10 months and 3 days away, or November 18th, 2023.

 

I do not follow your calculations/explanations  but thanks for making predictions. hoping your not mudding the water or giving us false hope....

[AndiB 677]

Am I reading the aug filers right? They had 80 on Wed?! So are we now at over 300 on JUST wednesday?? (still haven't seen nov numbers and think Jul-Oct has 306 cases processed wed alone). Will caution, Tuesday/Wed always seems to be the peak so thurs and fri may see it slow down but think that's over 400 in two days!!!

[GinoNiña 182]

it doesnt make sense. in k1 Timelines page shows November is the latest who got noa2.

[Lynxyonok 316]

48 minutes ago, AndiB said:

Am I reading the aug filers right? They had 80 on Wed?! So are we now at over 300 on JUST wednesday?? (still haven't seen nov numbers and think Jul-Oct has 306 cases processed wed alone). Will caution, Tuesday/Wed always seems to be the peak so thurs and fri may see it slow down but think that's over 400 in two days!!!

I still stand by my point that underlings work around the clock while bosses only approve decisions during business hours.

 

Until I see a week with >600 cases (pro tip: there hasn't been one in a year+) I will remain skeptical over individual daily spikes.

[Lynxyonok 316]

49 minutes ago, GinoNiña said:

I do not follow your calculations/explanations  but thanks for making predictions. hoping your not mudding the water or giving us false hope....

I am estimating the first wave's chance.

 

I should clarify perhaps that there's always an 8-week lag, should one's case just not be simple or lucky enough.

[Lynxyonok 316]

33 minutes ago, GinoNiña said:

it doesnt make sense. in k1 Timelines page shows November is the latest who got noa2.

The approval trough is 12 weeks wide. This week people from August, September, October, November were touched.

 

And some only got served with RFEs.

[Naterson 129]

2 hours ago, Lynxyonok said:

Until I see a week with >600 cases (pro tip: there hasn't been one in a year+) I will remain skeptical over individual daily spikes.

I don't do the numbers myself, so take this with a grain of salt, but if what was shown at the beginning of this thread is true it happened last week. Have the numbers been verified?

[AndiB 677]

2 hours ago, Naterson said:

I don't do the numbers myself, so take this with a grain of salt, but if what was shown at the beginning of this thread is true it happened last week. Have the numbers been verified?

Yes, last week was 700-800 depending if you incl RFE or not. We've also had a few weeks 600-700 before Christmas 

[asleepydoctor 7]

9 hours ago, AndiB said:

Am I reading the aug filers right? They had 80 on Wed?! So are we now at over 300 on JUST wednesday?? (still haven't seen nov numbers and think Jul-Oct has 306 cases processed wed alone). Will caution, Tuesday/Wed always seems to be the peak so thurs and fri may see it slow down but think that's over 400 in two days!!!

how do you guys find this info? I'm trying to keep an eye out for the turnover of cases right now but im not sure where or what to look at?

Also even though it seems that cases are being processed at a good rate right now, the timeline given to me by VJ keeps increasing everyday, anyone know why?

[AndiB 677]

1 minute ago, asleepydoctor said:

how do you guys find this info? I'm trying to keep an eye out for the turnover of cases right now but im not sure where or what to look at?

Also even though it seems that cases are being processed at a good rate right now, the timeline given to me by VJ keeps increasing everyday, anyone know why?

I look at the Oct filers etc forum posts here, people usually post a daily summary of how many cases were updated (approved, denied, rfe etc). I also look at https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/u/0/d/15hiSOTm85W1CG6c0jzQ8B7lXLo1JEwsWKr3zIszC2Zg/htmlview# but this updates slower and I don't think includes rfes. Which makes sense as an rfe doesn't remove it from the backlog.

Your number is going up because it's based on visajourney users timelines averaged over last 30days or something so that's what they're *currently* processing at. For times to go down they need to process over 800 a week, every week. It will also take awhile for an increase in processing to have an effect on our estimates. It's not instant.  Also if they're only removing 10-100 out of the backlog every week that's honestly not a lot and won't have a drastic affect on time estimates. It's good news because it means times won't keep going up in the future and will eventually come down but it's not going to happen tomorrow. Their increase in processing is mostly seen by fact the USCIS processing hasn't increased and is unlikely to. It used to go up at least 0.5months every month.