Number of cases processed hit new high!

[Naterson 129]

3 minutes ago, Quimat said:

Okay that makes more sense. Yes it absolutely does seem contradictory  and this is why nobody knows what to think anymore 🤦🏾‍♀️

Agreed, and I made a clarifying edit to my post that the 50% one is for the fiscal year, so only from October until the end of January. The (currently) longer 6 month period will take longer to catch up as rates improve.

Edited February 10, 2023 by Naterson

[Anna Hessler 119]

23 hours ago, New Romantics said:

Was this just updated or did I miss it? https://egov.uscis.gov/processing-times/historic-pt

Please remember that the processing time on this site includes expedites. Which is why the average is 14. Someone asked this question during one of those live Q&A things USCIS did a while back and they said it includes expedites.

Edited February 10, 2023 by Anna Hessler
Edit

[Anna Hessler 119]

4 minutes ago, Anna Hessler said:

Please remember that the processing time on this site includes expedites. Which is why the average is 14. Someone asked this question during one of those live Q&A things USCIS did a while back and they said it includes expedites.

Although, USCIS changes their mind and contradicts themselves all the time 🤣 so maybe it doesn't! Who knows with them anymore. 

[Naterson 129]

1 minute ago, Anna Hessler said:

Although, USCIS changes their mind and contradicts themselves all the time 🤣 so maybe it doesn't! Who knows with them anymore. 

 

Does https://egov.uscis.gov/processing-times/ not include expedites?

They've got so many places to look at information and it's all so nuanced...

Maybe it's all a smoke and mirrors show so nobody knows what is really going on and as a result nobody can keep them truly accountable (/s).

[Nikobe 129]

11 hours ago, Anna Hessler said:

Please remember that the processing time on this site includes expedites. Which is why the average is 14. Someone asked this question during one of those live Q&A things USCIS did a while back and they said it includes expedites.

Why would the USCIS processing times exclude expedites in the first place? They are approvals, too. 🤷

[Lynxyonok 316]

On 2/10/2023 at 6:38 PM, Naterson said:

 

Does https://egov.uscis.gov/processing-times/ not include expedites?

They've got so many places to look at information and it's all so nuanced...

Maybe it's all a smoke and mirrors show so nobody knows what is really going on and as a result nobody can keep them truly accountable (/s).

It includes all cases closed, for any reason (expedite or not). However, we still don't know if an RFE stops the clock on a case.

[Oregonian97 48]

Any info on the final count for this week? The spreadsheets still show "counting"

[Quimat 154]

4 minutes ago, Oregonian97 said:

Any info on the final count for this week? The spreadsheets still show "counting"

There was a note made off to the side that says they will have a final count on Monday due to USCIS website maintenance. 

[Oregonian97 48]

Is anyone else's case status "unavailable at this time" ? On the USCIS website. 

[AndiB 677]

6 hours ago, Oregonian97 said:

Is anyone else's case status "unavailable at this time" ? On the USCIS website. 

It's normal. Their website seems to be weird lately. Look at 'case history' and it should be accurate

[ChiuA 108]

Honestly at this point it feels like USCIS is a mess, and they are just trying to catch up and increase their times, while they aren't even sure how to do so lol...I do have been wondering tho obv my appointment says march when we get out NOA2 next year 2024...how accurcate is visa journey actually? Is VJ at this point maybe more accurcate than USCIS?  Timeline wise I mean haha. It honestly feels like this community here knows a lot xD Wish some of yall would actually work at USCIS  Maybe we could see positive changes then 

[AndiB 677]

2 minutes ago, ChiuA said:

Honestly at this point it feels like USCIS is a mess, and they are just trying to catch up and increase their times, while they aren't even sure how to do so lol...I do have been wondering tho obv my appointment says march when we get out NOA2 next year 2024...how accurcate is visa journey actually? Is VJ at this point maybe more accurcate than USCIS?  Timeline wise I mean haha. It honestly feels like this community here knows a lot xD Wish some of yall would actually work at USCIS  Maybe we could see positive changes then 

People seem to have different takes from the data so not saying mine is right but personally they do seem to be speeding up but only for maybe 50% of cases? So the last 50% ends up in the tail, so maybe still 15-16months or longer if in the last 200 of a month. I imagine they're racing ahead like this to keep their numbers down as the front of the approvals wave is getting shorter and shorter but the end of it is getting further (wider spread of approvals) but even that end will start falling under 15.5months (except for the small % that seem to just get left). 

 

I'm not sure how they share a caseload but generally the spread of approvals across a month seems fairly consistent, at least for the start so ie there will be approx as many approvals for first half of a month as at the end. Something in the way they hand over cases means some fall behind and we have no idea why but for the majority, times are improving slowly. It's just unfortunate there's kind of a wider window of approvals now making it less predictable. They seem to start shifting when 50% + and then even more so at when  80%+ of a month is done.

 

Visjourney timeline is hit or miss, my friend who went through k1 recently said it was useless to her and based on *current* projections my NOA2 is anywhere from Dec 2023 to Jan 2024 (or later if unlucky) but visa journey says end of Jan. Visa journey I believe bases it off user entries and may take a little while for the speed up to show up. I don't think visa journey is a bad marker but I wouldn't rely on it alone. 

[New Romantics 188]

2 hours ago, AndiB said:

People seem to have different takes from the data so not saying mine is right but personally they do seem to be speeding up but only for maybe 50% of cases? So the last 50% ends up in the tail, so maybe still 15-16months or longer if in the last 200 of a month. I imagine they're racing ahead like this to keep their numbers down as the front of the approvals wave is getting shorter and shorter but the end of it is getting further (wider spread of approvals) but even that end will start falling under 15.5months (except for the small % that seem to just get left). 

 

I'm not sure how they share a caseload but generally the spread of approvals across a month seems fairly consistent, at least for the start so ie there will be approx as many approvals for first half of a month as at the end. Something in the way they hand over cases means some fall behind and we have no idea why but for the majority, times are improving slowly. It's just unfortunate there's kind of a wider window of approvals now making it less predictable. They seem to start shifting when 50% + and then even more so at when  80%+ of a month is done.

 

Visjourney timeline is hit or miss, my friend who went through k1 recently said it was useless to her and based on *current* projections my NOA2 is anywhere from Dec 2023 to Jan 2024 (or later if unlucky) but visa journey says end of Jan. Visa journey I believe bases it off user entries and may take a little while for the speed up to show up. I don't think visa journey is a bad marker but I wouldn't rely on it alone. 

Yeah, the difference is that VJ and USCSI base their projections on past cases whereas your calculation for example is in real time about how they are doing in the last few weeks or so. The improvement is easier to see then 

[ChiuA 108]

2 hours ago, AndiB said:

People seem to have different takes from the data so not saying mine is right but personally they do seem to be speeding up but only for maybe 50% of cases? So the last 50% ends up in the tail, so maybe still 15-16months or longer if in the last 200 of a month. I imagine they're racing ahead like this to keep their numbers down as the front of the approvals wave is getting shorter and shorter but the end of it is getting further (wider spread of approvals) but even that end will start falling under 15.5months (except for the small % that seem to just get left). 

 

I'm not sure how they share a caseload but generally the spread of approvals across a month seems fairly consistent, at least for the start so ie there will be approx as many approvals for first half of a month as at the end. Something in the way they hand over cases means some fall behind and we have no idea why but for the majority, times are improving slowly. It's just unfortunate there's kind of a wider window of approvals now making it less predictable. They seem to start shifting when 50% + and then even more so at when  80%+ of a month is done.

 

Visjourney timeline is hit or miss, my friend who went through k1 recently said it was useless to her and based on *current* projections my NOA2 is anywhere from Dec 2023 to Jan 2024 (or later if unlucky) but visa journey says end of Jan. Visa journey I believe bases it off user entries and may take a little while for the speed up to show up. I don't think visa journey is a bad marker but I wouldn't rely on it alone. 

I see thank you so much! All this is sometimes truly confusing haha. Srsly you all should apply lol, everyone here giving me more insight tbh than the actual USCIS website  All jokes aside I am assuming you are also october then? (I think I also do remember seeing it somewhere) So we got this  

[AndiB 677]

3 hours ago, ChiuA said:

I see thank you so much! All this is sometimes truly confusing haha. Srsly you all should apply lol, everyone here giving me more insight tbh than the actual USCIS website  All jokes aside I am assuming you are also october then? (I think I also do remember seeing it somewhere) So we got this  

I am! I'm honestly stressing a bit as our NOA2 seems to be less and less predictable. I have a *lot* do to prior to visa and I'm a serial procrastinator so I feel it's going to catch me off guard unless it's very late 🤣
If I'm inthe first wave of approvals it'll be 50% excitement 50% blind panic cause I prepared for the worst

3 hours ago, New Romantics said:

Yeah, the difference is that VJ and USCSI base their projections on past cases whereas your calculation for example is in real time about how they are doing in the last few weeks or so. The improvement is easier to see then 

true true

 

I guess a lot of people read it as up to date estimates but it is averaged over x time while USCIS is rapidly changing week by week so the estimates can quickly be out of date. Currently they aren't but we'll see how they shift compared to USCIS