Number of cases processed hit new high!

[ChiuA 108]

Idk though tbh why they set such an unrealistic goal for themselves...6 months? That is not possible with that back log. Unless they will start mid year randomly working on cases to boost their numbers and ignoring some of the backlog ones (which would be absolutely shocking and almost rude honestly...) I do not get why they set themselves a goal of 6 months by end of 2023. Honestly 10-11 months seems more realistic with their current speed than anything else. I really cannot wait for some updates about this. What their *goal* now is. 

[AndiB 677]

2 minutes ago, Quimat said:

This is why I post my concerns in this group because you all are so amazing about helping me find clarity in a situation I’m confused about! I don’t mean to sound like a Debbie Downer, I just wasn’t quite understanding what was happening. Even though we filed in November 2022, I’m recently trying to pay more attention to numbers and it’s so confusing lol! But wow yes, from 200 a week to now 800 a week is an AMAZING improvement! I need to continue to be more optimistic so thank you for helping me look at the bright side of this! ❤️

I filed end of Oct and I was in tears at my bf's place because processing times kept increasing and I started following the data around then. In mid Oct we were looking at 24months+ until NOA2 for an Oct filer. I can totally understand how seeing no improvement is disheartening but to give context we were looking at processing estimates on USCIS website (so official) creeping up 0.5-1months EVERY month in 2022. We kept watching the goal get further and further away. We're now at a point where the goal at least seems to be staying constant which isn't great but it's better than the increases we were seeing. I'm really hopeful we'll see a decrease and it does hurt to see it constant so I think it's okay to feel upset about it.

 

I follow https://www.youtube.com/@uscisanalysis who gives monthly updates on projections of how long you'll be waiting for NOA2 based on the data he's looking at and always under the assumption USCIS makes *zero* changes. His last one is before we really saw these improvements so will still say about 18months for Oct 2022 but hoping his next video shows it down to 15/16. He also just gives a good overview of how USCIS is doing week on week and how things have changed.
Even looking at I think his last 4 you'll see Oct 2022 go from 24months to 18 months. The improvements are there (for us late 2022 filers), it's just not obvious without knowing the history ❤️

[New Romantics 188]

I just put in my NOA1 date out of curiosity to see when I could submit an out of normal processing times request and the date has been pushed back another 10 days. Anyone else have the same thing happen? The processing time is still the same though 🤔

[AndiB 677]

1 hour ago, New Romantics said:

I just put in my NOA1 date out of curiosity to see when I could submit an out of normal processing times request and the date has been pushed back another 10 days. Anyone else have the same thing happen? The processing time is still the same though 🤔

mine is still the same I think

[Ngillet 267]

9 hours ago, AndiB said:

I filed end of Oct and I was in tears at my bf's place because processing times kept increasing and I started following the data around then. In mid Oct we were looking at 24months+ until NOA2 for an Oct filer. I can totally understand how seeing no improvement is disheartening but to give context we were looking at processing estimates on USCIS website (so official) creeping up 0.5-1months EVERY month in 2022. We kept watching the goal get further and further away. We're now at a point where the goal at least seems to be staying constant which isn't great but it's better than the increases we were seeing. I'm really hopeful we'll see a decrease and it does hurt to see it constant so I think it's okay to feel upset about it.

 

I follow https://www.youtube.com/@uscisanalysis who gives monthly updates on projections of how long you'll be waiting for NOA2 based on the data he's looking at and always under the assumption USCIS makes *zero* changes. His last one is before we really saw these improvements so will still say about 18months for Oct 2022 but hoping his next video shows it down to 15/16. He also just gives a good overview of how USCIS is doing week on week and how things have changed.
Even looking at I think his last 4 you'll see Oct 2022 go from 24months to 18 months. The improvements are there (for us late 2022 filers), it's just not obvious without knowing the history ❤️

Thanks for the youtube link. Great info!!! 

[Lynxyonok 316]

2 hours ago, New Romantics said:

I just put in my NOA1 date out of curiosity to see when I could submit an out of normal processing times request and the date has been pushed back another 10 days. Anyone else have the same thing happen? The processing time is still the same though 🤔

The date for an out of normal processing time request is a precursor to what the official processing time is going to show a few weeks later.

 

The two are hard to translate as one relies on 80% of cases processed within posted times while the other one is 130% of cycle processing time. However, their trends are overall similar.

10 hours ago, ChiuA said:

Idk though tbh why they set such an unrealistic goal for themselves...6 months? That is not possible with that back log. Unless they will start mid year randomly working on cases to boost their numbers and ignoring some of the backlog ones (which would be absolutely shocking and almost rude honestly...) I do not get why they set themselves a goal of 6 months by end of 2023. Honestly 10-11 months seems more realistic with their current speed than anything else. I really cannot wait for some updates about this. What their *goal* now is. 

That goal is gone.

 

The current priority is adjustment of status of those already in the country.

[Lynxyonok 316]

On 2/5/2023 at 3:18 PM, New Romantics said:

You're right actually. I noticed it too. Sometimes the numbers are way off. Like 2-3k. It can't just be people withdrawing their petitions.

Withdrawals are holding at about 2 - 2.5% right now.

 

RFEs for aged petitions are quite high, though.

 

First-wave cases are presently facing a 1:4 chance of a RFE, whereas those going on 16+ months, 1:2.

[Lynxyonok 316]

On 2/4/2023 at 9:14 AM, Anna Hessler said:

If you want more good processing speed news, my husband got his EAD approved in 29 days. 🤣

 

Yup, that's their current focus: those already in the country.

 

Great for those who got on the bus.

 

Not so for those who just missed it

[wav_m 84]

4 hours ago, New Romantics said:

I just put in my NOA1 date out of curiosity to see when I could submit an out of normal processing times request and the date has been pushed back another 10 days. Anyone else have the same thing happen? The processing time is still the same though 🤔

Yeah, mine has shifted by 10 days too. Not great!

[ChiuA 108]

10 hours ago, Lynxyonok said:

The date for an out of normal processing time request is a precursor to what the official processing time is going to show a few weeks later.

 

The two are hard to translate as one relies on 80% of cases processed within posted times while the other one is 130% of cycle processing time. However, their trends are overall similar.

That goal is gone.

 

The current priority is adjustment of status of those already in the country.

Honestly, I think the highest they can aim for rn would be like 1-2months reduce...lol...nice attempt of them I guess but realistically speaking, impossible lol. So I assume we should get an update in 4weekish~ about the new times I think?

[AndiB 677]

For some reason can't quote...

I don't know if we'll see an update on uscis for a lil while, they average over 6 months and although we are seeing people getting 14 months, there's still a lot getting 15-16 so may average out to 15.5. We maaayyy see it drop to 15 officially in coming month but wouldn't expect much more

[New Romantics 188]

3 minutes ago, AndiB said:

For some reason can't quote...

I don't know if we'll see an update on uscis for a lil while, they average over 6 months and although we are seeing people getting 14 months, there's still a lot getting 15-16 so may average out to 15.5. We maaayyy see it drop to 15 officially in coming month but wouldn't expect much more

I can see it increasing before it decreases. Purely because if it took 15 months for people who had 30k in front of them, it should naturally take more than that for people who have 50k lets say. 50k is a 66% increase over 30k in backlog. So they have to work a lot more just to keep the later filers at the same number, no? I think they would have to probably get to about 900/week just to keep us at 15.5 months without any increase whatsover. Which is almost what they are doing. And that is assuming we (October 2022 filers) had 55k in front of us (which I have my doubts about)

[Quimat 154]

The moderator in one of the groups I am in said that USCIS data shows that as of September the back log was at 55,425. I wonder how much that has changed.

[AndiB 677]

I dunno why I lost quote privileges atm... Stupid mobile

I think you're right in that at the moment their current speed is basically enough to hold us steady at 15.5 with maayybbee enough to decrease to 14-14.5 in coming months because I think they're dipping into backlog a little bit (we seem to have unaccounted for approvals/denials/rejections).

I'm on 5hrs sleep and math is beyond me on backlog for current filers v us.

[AndiB 677]

5 minutes ago, Quimat said:

The moderator in one of the groups I am in said that USCIS data shows that as of September the back log was at 55,425. I wonder how much that has changed.

That's the number quoted in their report but he's also pointed out in a prior post that their own reports don't match from quarter to quarter, like I think no. processed didn't match reduction in backlog so it's difficult to be sure. We *think* it's about 40k for oct 2022 filers right now but it's really informed guesses at this pt