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Filed: K-1 Visa Country: Germany
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Posted

I really can't wait for the update lol...so many things I feel like we can't know 100% only they can TT ... I do believe we won't increase to 16months as well maybe even go down to 13.5 months but honestly...that's about it, I don't see it lower than that sadly :( Unless they suddnely hire like 100 more employees and they all start pushing like 40 cases a day as well xD

Posted
5 hours ago, meladee said:

I compiled the quarterly data since 2017 in case anyone finds it useful: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/e/2PACX-1vQ-2DBEBeBMZ041TRFhsguzUmuMNHjfHE9IPrE8AgH_F_xuFPxEeUMXk8PVTpyhcLjBZQ6yXD8MD7gD/pubhtml

  • Obviously this only goes up to September, so doesn't factor in recent improvements.
  • I mainly pulled this to see what their max was before COVID, which was 1,226/week.

 

To answer the official Approved + Denied values are different than the legendary 2021 spreadsheet, I suspect that it's primarily because this spreadsheet is only tracking the activity of cases that were opened in 2021.

  • The 2022 cases that were withdrawn, expedited & approved, or immediately rejected (because they had the wrong fee or were improperly filed) would be captured in the offical processing numbers, but not the 2021 sheet.
  • Likewise, any 2020 cases that had extended processing times would be in the official data, but not the 2021 sheet.

According to this, they have managed about 21k a quarter in the past. I think if they allocated resources they could do that again https://www.uscis.gov/sites/default/files/document/data/AllForms-Q42013.pdf

Posted
Just now, FromMexico W/Love said:

I like it!! I think I am going to pull all the numbers going back as far as I can because I am bored and see if I can find anything like the period of time we are experiencing with I-129f backlogs and how quickly they cleared it. It is interesting that in 2013 there was a ~35k backlog. 

Yes, please do! That would be great to take a look at. It could provide us with some info about how things might move in the future 

 

Posted

image.thumb.png.51becf625a7b641b93e2a92b1815a6a5.png

image.thumb.png.9066feb2f2282ed9ca42afce1a0a4a9b.png

image.thumb.png.65c6191123dc98d55cb4f78126266d4d.png

 

I just pulled this data from the USCIS Fiscal Year reporting forms from FY2012 until FY2022. This is the worst backlog on record for USCIS in the past decade, but there are some positive indications from previous backlogs in 2013 and 2018 that could help shed some light on our situation and how USCIS might handle this. 

 

 

 

 

Posted
4 minutes ago, FromMexico W/Love said:

image.thumb.png.51becf625a7b641b93e2a92b1815a6a5.png

image.thumb.png.9066feb2f2282ed9ca42afce1a0a4a9b.png

image.thumb.png.65c6191123dc98d55cb4f78126266d4d.png

 

I just pulled this data from the USCIS Fiscal Year reporting forms from FY2012 until FY2022. This is the worst backlog on record for USCIS in the past decade, but there are some positive indications from previous backlogs in 2013 and 2018 that could help shed some light on our situation and how USCIS might handle this. 

 

 

 

 

Wow thank you for putting this together!! This really shows just how bad it's been. Hopefully with some concentrated effort on their part and some good processing times of about 1000-1300 / week they can reduce it to the goal they set for themselves.

Posted
21 hours ago, New Romantics said:

Wow thank you for putting this together!! This really shows just how bad it's been. Hopefully with some concentrated effort on their part and some good processing times of about 1000-1300 / week they can reduce it to the goal they set for themselves.

What's weird is when you look at the quarterly data, the numbers don't add up. Like take the (received- completed) for a certain quarter, and add that to the last pending backlog number from the previous quarter, and it does NOT equal the same as that quarter's backlog. Something funky in how they are calculating it......

Filed: K-1 Visa Country: United Kingdom
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Posted
3 minutes ago, Oregonian97 said:

What's weird is when you look at the quarterly data, the numbers don't add up. Like take the (received- completed) for a certain quarter, and add that to the last pending backlog number from the previous quarter, and it does NOT equal the same as that quarter's backlog. Something funky in how they are calculating it......

You have to include the number of denials + approvals. Then it makes sense, denials make up a fair number by being cases that are almost immediately denied of the bat. 

Posted (edited)
3 minutes ago, Matthew Tarrant said:

You have to include the number of denials + approvals. Then it makes sense, denials make up a fair number by being cases that are almost immediately denied of the bat. 

I included the approved + denied as part of my "completed" number. Still doesnt add up

Edited by Oregonian97
Posted
5 minutes ago, Oregonian97 said:

What's weird is when you look at the quarterly data, the numbers don't add up. Like take the (received- completed) for a certain quarter, and add that to the last pending backlog number from the previous quarter, and it does NOT equal the same as that quarter's backlog. Something funky in how they are calculating it......

You're right actually. I noticed it too. Sometimes the numbers are way off. Like 2-3k. It can't just be people withdrawing their petitions.

 
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