Number of cases processed hit new high!

[AndiB 677]

Sure there will be a post tomorrow in the weekly count thread but apparently I can't math...this week was better than last! Look forward to Anna's post to confirm because being ill + dyslexia I don't trust me until I see somebody else's numbers 🤣
I got about 1120 processed (but I incl withdrawals) and 800 from backlog!

[New Romantics 188]

1 minute ago, AndiB said:

Sure there will be a post tomorrow in the weekly count thread but apparently I can't math...this week was better than last! Look forward to Anna's post to confirm because being ill + dyslexia I don't trust me until I see somebody else's numbers 🤣
I got about 1120 processed (but I incl withdrawals) and 800 from backlog!

I can't math either but I got 900. Let's hope for our sake I'm right and you're wrong 🤣🤣

[AndiB 677]

Also also admin at VJ fb checked out the spreadsheets, think he'd have compared the old spreadsheet that has mostly died but looks like generally we underestimate!

 

My assumption is because we only look at their main processing window, they also process others (like expedites etc) which may not show up in our numbers.

 

EDIT: Actually thinking on it, may be because odl spreadsheet didn't consider RFEs processed whereas USCIS did?

Edited February 4, 2023 by AndiB

[Oregonian97 48]

35 minutes ago, AndiB said:

Also also admin at VJ fb checked out the spreadsheets, think he'd have compared the old spreadsheet that has mostly died but looks like generally we underestimate!

 

My assumption is because we only look at their main processing window, they also process others (like expedites etc) which may not show up in our numbers.

 

EDIT: Actually thinking on it, may be because odl spreadsheet didn't consider RFEs processed whereas USCIS did?

The reason is actually straight forward. In the quarterly report, about 33% of applications get rejected, but we know the trackers show approval % of 90+. This is because there is a good chunk of applications that get rejected right at the start. These are not shown in our data tracking, but it's captured in USCIS's quarterly data. If you takeout 75% of the rejected number and add to the "approved" numbers, should come out about right.

 

So unfortunately we are not underestimating. 

Edited February 4, 2023 by Oregonian97

[New Romantics 188]

9 minutes ago, Oregonian97 said:

The reason is actually straight forward. In the quarterly report, about 33% of applications get rejected, but we know the trackers show approval % of 90+. This is because there is a good chunk of applications that get rejected right at the start. These are not shown in our data tracking, but it's captured in USCIS's quarterly data. If you takeout 75% of the rejected number and add to the "approved" numbers, should come out about right.

 

So unfortunately we are not underestimating. 

Could you explain this a bit better? I'm having a hard time understanding it. Thank you

[AndiB 677]

2 minutes ago, New Romantics said:

Could you explain this a bit better? I'm having a hard time understanding it. Thank you

you can maybe see it in the bar chart in, basically there's a % rejected at start (unsigned form/missing cash etc I think) and also seems approvals etc done ahead of time too, prob expedites 

 

[Oregonian97 48]

1 minute ago, New Romantics said:

Could you explain this a bit better? I'm having a hard time understanding it. Thank you

My understanding (and I might be wrong), is that there are a good chunk of people that don't get to NOA1. They get rejected right at the start for not meeting requirements, or not providing a check, whatever it is. Those cases don't get a case number and thus can't be tracked. USCIS still reports those cases as rejected. We never see them in case tracker cause they never make it there. These don't have an impact on backlog either.

[Quimat 154]

Correct me if I’m wrong, but RFE’s do play a role in backlog, no? Would this further delay any improvement in timeline because they have to wait for a response from the petitioner and then take the time to re-review the documentation? I’m curious because I know a woman that ended up with a total of an 18 month wait from NAO1 to NAO2 because it took about 2 months for her to hear back from submitting the required documents from her RFE. On the other hand I’ve seen someone with a 13.9 month wait from NAO1 to NAO2 with no RFE. 

Edited February 4, 2023 by Quimat

[New Romantics 188]

5 minutes ago, Oregonian97 said:

My understanding (and I might be wrong), is that there are a good chunk of people that don't get to NOA1. They get rejected right at the start for not meeting requirements, or not providing a check, whatever it is. Those cases don't get a case number and thus can't be tracked. USCIS still reports those cases as rejected. We never see them in case tracker cause they never make it there. These don't have an impact on backlog either.

Ohh I see that makes perfect sense. Thank you for the explanation ☺️ 

[Oregonian97 48]

2 minutes ago, Quimat said:

Correct me if I’m wrong, but RFE’s do play a role in backlog, no? Would this further delay any improvement in timeline because they have to wait for a response from the petitioner and then take the time to re-review the documentation? I’m curious because I know a woman that ended up with a total of an 18 month wait from NAO1 to NAO2 because it took about 2 months for her to hear back from submitting the required documents from her RFE. On the other hand I’ve seen someone with a 13.9 month wait from NAO1 to NAO2 with no RFE. 

It indirectly affects the backlog in that it will make case processing slower since USCSI officers spend time on RFE's. As far as the ACTUAL backlog number, no impact since it doesn't reduce pending case count. I see RFE numbers merely just numbers showing how many cases got delayed. 

[AndiB 677]

2 minutes ago, Quimat said:

Correct me if I’m wrong, but RFE’s do play a role in backlog, no? Would this further delay any improvement in timeline because they have to wait for a response from the petitioner and then take the time to re-review the documentation? I’m curious because I know a woman that ended up with a total of an 18 month wait from NAO1 to NAO2 because it took about 2 months for her to hear back from submitting the required documents from her RFE. On the other hand I’ve seen someone with a 13.9 month wait from NAO1 to NAO2 with no RFE. 

If you mean the official estimate? RFEs count as 'adjudicated' I believe so will count towards improving the timeline but it doesn't remove them from backlog until they're approved/denied so yes for processing times, no for cutting into backlog

[Quimat 154]

1 minute ago, AndiB said:

If you mean the official estimate? RFEs count as 'adjudicated' I believe so will count towards improving the timeline but it doesn't remove them from backlog until they're approved/denied so yes for processing times, no for cutting into backlog

Yes this is what I meant. Thanks for explaining! 😊

[FromMexico W/Love 244]

Does anyone have an idea of what the current backlog might be? I don't think I have seen that number recently. 

[Anna Hessler 119]

Hi! Sorry for being MIA for a few days. I got a project dumped on me that I need to focus on for a little bit. But I can still do the weekly update.

 

We are currently at 1010 for the week for July-December. This includes approved, denied and RFE. For those of you who are asking about the backlog being reduced, the answer is no. The backlog is not being reduced and the times will not decrease as of right now. 286 of those are RFEs. RFEs do not reduce the backlog because those cases still need to be touched again, they are not closed cases. Theres only 714 approvals and denials - which do eliminate a case from the backlog. Since they get about ~850 submissions a week (minus about 30 for the ones that are automatically rejected, leaving us with 820) we would need 820 approvals/denials a week. Even with this increased speed, we don't have that.

 

So yes, they are working faster. But the backlog is not going down and the times are not reducing. We need more approvals and less RFEs for that to happen.

[Anna Hessler 119]

Is there a rule on posting links? I cant remember. There is one guy on YouTube that I actually trust. His numbers look accurate. Its called Jan. 22, 2023 Update: USCIS I-129F K1 Fiancé Visa Processing Wait Times if you want to look it up.