Number of cases processed hit new high!

[Quimat 154]

6 hours ago, AndiB said:

Yeah fb is hella negative, I kinda get it but it's not a fun atmosphere. I think it's okay to be cautiously hopeful, things are finally moving in the right direction. Just have to hope you're in the first 50% what it gets a little depressing

I ended up snoozing one of the groups for 30 days. It’s just too much for me. I know anything is possible on this journey but I’d rather keep my thoughts positive. I appreciate this site because you all actually talk numbers. This process sucks, but information like this makes it so much better. 

[Quimat 154]

6 hours ago, AndiB said:

I see youre a Nov 2022 filer @Quimat

You have to remember a lot of 2021 filers filed when it was 6-9 months and saw it increase to 15.5months so have been waiting 6-9months longer than they expected so they're used to being disappointed. I think we'll end up just under a yr for our NOA2 but will take a month+ to get a good idea of trend. 

I didn’t even consider thinking about that. Good point! I’m just going to keep stalking this forum hoping to continue to see good news lol 🤞. 

[Lynxyonok 316]

26 minutes ago, Mr.So said:

Hi Guys, If I filed my case in mid of April 2022, and at the rate they are going now, when should I see an approval? Thank you all.

September.

[wav_m 84]

1 hour ago, Lynxyonok said:

I would too! If only because it would be first for USCIS

Instead, my timeline fell back by a week in the last week. 🤡

 

Either we're celebrating a dead-cat bounce or VJ algorithms (based on everyone faithfully updating their timelines) are off.

Mine's slipped back a bit, too – but I am really hoping I'm right to trust the data people are actually mining from USCIS over a self-reported function on a forum. A really helpful self-reported function, don't get me wrong! But I want to believe that the raw data is telling a more reliable story.

[MarJhi 964]

It's great to be optimistic and I certainly hope you all can get from NOA1 to NOA2  faster than the 15.5 months ours took. That being said, I think a lot of people are setting themselves up for some disappointment by thinking it's going to get much quicker than the 15.5 months anytime soon. There seems to be a lot of speculation about what the approval time could be rather that what they currently are. If it goes quicker than that,  then great, but until you see new approvals coming in under the 15 month time frame I would try be patient. 

 

Edited February 1, 2023 by MarJhi

[AndiB 677]

27 minutes ago, MarJhi said:

It's great to be optimistic and I certainly hope you all can get from NOA1 to NOA2  faster than the 15.5 months ours took. That being said, I think a lot of people are setting themselves up for some disappointment by thinking it's going to get much quicker than the 15.5 months anytime soon. There seems to be a lot of speculation about what the approval time could be rather that what they currently are. If it goes quicker than that,  then great, but until you see new approvals coming in under the 15 month time frame I would try be patient. 

 

A bunch of November filers have been getting theirs last week or two which is 14 months, they're closing in on December now.

 

The issue is they're still busy in Oct (15-15.5months) and a lil in sept (16 months). 

 

We're not 100% clear it'll be faster but we're analysising the data, it's not difficult to take backlog and divide by number they remove from backlog everyday to get an estimate on how long it'll take from now assuming pace doesn't increase/decrease. Atm I'm sitting somewhere at 12-13months for NOA2 but based on their newsletters we expect it to keep increasing pace. We just can't be sure or how fast it'll increase which is why we always say we need to wait and see. No one is adament it'll be a lot faster, just that's what the data CURRENTLY points to. If it changes, then we'd discuss that too. Best we can do is share current and everyone is free to make their assumptions 🤷‍♀️

 

My field is literally data analysis so I'm not making it up but I also can't really be sure of anything months in future when uscis changes rapidly from week to week. The fact they are increasing and they have a VERY optimistic goal of 6 months by October makes me think they plan to keep increasing pace. I don't think they'll reach their goals but we know they're aiming for a dramatic decrease in wait times which means big changes. Remember this time last year it was like 250/week it's now 250/day

[AndiB 677]

3 hours ago, wav_m said:

Mine's slipped back a bit, too – but I am really hoping I'm right to trust the data people are actually mining from USCIS over a self-reported function on a forum. A really helpful self-reported function, don't get me wrong! But I want to believe that the raw data is telling a more reliable story.

The VJ and USCIS both use averages over a certain time period. This increase is only this month so it'll take awhile to show up on VJ and USCIS. VJ will also depend on who self reports, there are people at 15.5-16.5 months getting theirs atm and even some waiting longer. There's also quite a decent number of November getting theirs but this will be anywhere from 14-15 months so not a drastic decrease. 

 

We're discussing more long term trends, it won't suddenly drop to like 12 months or less for jan/feb filers because they're only just starting to increase to under 15 months. As I say, we'll have a better idea in a month or so how it's looking

[MarJhi 964]

1 hour ago, AndiB said:

A bunch of November filers have been getting theirs last week or two which is 14 months, they're closing in on December now.

 

The issue is they're still busy in Oct (15-15.5months) and a lil in sept (16 months). 

 

We're not 100% clear it'll be faster but we're analysising the data, it's not difficult to take backlog and divide by number they remove from backlog everyday to get an estimate on how long it'll take from now assuming pace doesn't increase/decrease. Atm I'm sitting somewhere at 12-13months for NOA2 but based on their newsletters we expect it to keep increasing pace. We just can't be sure or how fast it'll increase which is why we always say we need to wait and see. No one is adament it'll be a lot faster, just that's what the data CURRENTLY points to. If it changes, then we'd discuss that too. Best we can do is share current and everyone is free to make their assumptions 🤷‍♀️

 

My field is literally data analysis so I'm not making it up but I also can't really be sure of anything months in future when uscis changes rapidly from week to week. The fact they are increasing and they have a VERY optimistic goal of 6 months by October makes me think they plan to keep increasing pace. I don't think they'll reach their goals but we know they're aiming for a dramatic decrease in wait times which means big changes. Remember this time last year it was like 250/week it's now 250/day

I never focused on how many cases were done per week or per day, I chose to focus on VJ members who report their wait times from NOA1 to NOA2. 

 

I would only get excited if I saw the wait time decrease from 15 months to 14, 13 and so on. I would rather be surprised to have it done quicker than expected instead of being disappointed because I was being overly optimistic. It can hurt people to make them think it's coming sooner that it is. 

[AndiB 677]

9 minutes ago, MarJhi said:

I never focused on how many cases were done per week or per day, I chose to focus on VJ members who report their wait times from NOA1 to NOA2. 

 

I would only get excited if I saw the wait time decrease from 15 months to 14, 13 and so on. I would rather be surprised to have it done quicker than expected instead of being disappointed because I was being overly optimistic. It can hurt people to make them think it's coming sooner that it is. 

That's fair, as I say everyone is free to use what data they want and make their own assumptions. My friend went through K1 and didn't find the VJ estimate at all accurate so I'm using it only as a general guide and prefer to follow what's actually happening at uscis. 

 

Personally them speeding up a lot could catch me and fiance completely unprepared so I'm actually hoping they don't accelerate too much but data is implying they might 💀

 

I just share numbers and try to give some info, after that it's personal interpretation cause lord knows none of us can be sure

[New Romantics 188]

2 hours ago, MarJhi said:

It's great to be optimistic and I certainly hope you all can get from NOA1 to NOA2  faster than the 15.5 months ours took. That being said, I think a lot of people are setting themselves up for some disappointment by thinking it's going to get much quicker than the 15.5 months anytime soon. There seems to be a lot of speculation about what the approval time could be rather that what they currently are. If it goes quicker than that,  then great, but until you see new approvals coming in under the 15 month time frame I would try be patient. 

 

Speaking for myself, I'm fully prepared to wait the full 15.5 months start to finish for NOA2. However, getting excited over improvements is also important for morale. Caution is obviously advised, but that's different than not allowing yourself some excitement over good news. That's just my 2 cents.

[AndiB 677]

Sadly today's numbers are about half of ydays, 130 (mon 282) processed. Already at 300+ removed from backlog for the week though

[New Romantics 188]

Anyone else noticed that the processing time didn't change? Still 15.5 months. That's pretty good news still. It hasn't increased in a couple of months

[AndiB 677]

Just now, New Romantics said:

Anyone else noticed that the processing time didn't change? Still 15.5 months. That's pretty good news still. It hasn't increased in a couple of months

Agreed. Honestly even if it only stays at 15 months I'll be happy. We were looking at 2yrs when we applied 😭

[New Romantics 188]

Just now, AndiB said:

Agreed. Honestly even if it only stays at 15 months I'll be happy. We were looking at 2yrs when we applied 😭

Yes!! This is what I'm thinking too. Even if it were to stay like this at least I know that as soon as I'm out of normal times I will submit an inquiry. When I first applied in October and the time kept going up I was terrified I would only get my NOA2 in September of 2024 or something

[FromMexico W/Love 244]

Having worked for multiple federal agencies, to include the DOS, for over a decade here are my two cents on the backlog timeline and why we probably see a decrease in the backlog this FY. The backlog before COVID was significantly lower, hovering around ~20k and processing around ~16k/cases a quarter which put them firmly in the processing goal of ~4-6/months for I-129f. A timeline of processing I-129f paperwork in ~6/months can routinely be chalked up to, "that is how long it takes us to process these cases, without letting fraudulent cases enter the US" without raising serious red flags about an agencies management and leadership because the amount of US citizens impacted by that processing timeline is very small. However, when the timeline extends like it did in FY2022 you now have 55k+ US citizens becoming impacted by nearly 2+ year wait times, and if the trend they were on continued we would be flirting with a 100k+ backlog. Now that is where it becomes a serious problem for USCIS, especially when the average citizen doesn't even know your agency exists (which is good for the agency).

 

If the backlog were to increase or even stay the same, you are looking at getting a significant increase in congressional inquires and other issues (watchdogs, internal audits, etc.) that USCIS doesn't want nor need, especially over what are routinely pretty cut and dry I-129f cases. Heck with even cases that might seem "fraudulent" to the common eye, the US government usually can't stop them because "love" and other benchmarks for relationships cannot be applied to marriage or fiancé relationships (i.e. a US citizen having married multiple foreign spouses, a significant age gap, 90-day fiancé stuff lol). There is a saying with DOS consular officers who interview K-1/CR-1 cases that goes "love isn't in the FAM " (foreign affairs manual). The FAM is what drives the decision making process that DOS officers use, and I guarantee that there is an equivalent on the USCIS side, and they just chalk it up to, "oh well" on some cases. 

 

Just some guy's two cents having worked in the machine that is the US federal government.