Number of cases processed hit new high!

[Quimat 154]

2 minutes ago, meladee said:

I understand having the gut reaction of "why are these people so negative?!" but anyone who has filed after ~June 2022 is coming from a place of privilege, where we've mostly seen the processing rates increase & processing times decrease, and are likely to get approved within the window we expected. I honestly cannot imagine having started this process with the expectation of 8-9-10 months and then actually experiencing 14-15-16 months instead. They aren't being negative because they want to poop on everyone's parade, they believe they're being reasitic because it happened to them. What they would have given to not have those months of disappointment and frustration! I am empathetic to their lived experience and understand why they have the point of view they do.

If you read what I said earlier, I empathize with those that have gone through that, I could not imagine filing expecting one timeline and then continuously being pushed back, it’s awful and it sucks. That’s not an excuse, however, to go out of ones way to spread negativity on numerous posts. There is a way to be realistic without being negative. There are people that did wait a long time, received their NOA2 and are STILL spreading that negativity.  I never want to be the person to discourage others, especially newer filers.  It certainly won’t speed my timeline up. Sometimes it’s not what is said but the way in which it is said. 

 

53 minutes ago, AndiB said:

yh I also worry about people pushing cr1 because it'll take the same time. At the moment it about equal or k1 is faster and k1 will get faster.  cr1 def has a lot of advantages so I can see why it's recommended esp if there's only a couple months diff in approval but yh I feel it's a lil false advertising at this point.

I do see where the CR1 does have advantages as far as saving money in the long run and the beneficiary being able to work when they land on American soil. I think either choice is amazing depending on one’s situation. For me, the K1 is best. I’m an RN and I have kids so traveling back and forth to Africa is harder on me at the moment. I agree with the false advertisement though lol 

[meladee 160]

38 minutes ago, Quimat said:

Sometimes it’s not what is said but the way in which it is said. 

That's fair -- if they're actually being rude, that's different. But if they're giving advice based on their actual lived experience, then they can't help that their exerperience was negative.

[AndiB 677]

1 hour ago, meladee said:

I understand having the gut reaction of "why are these people so negative?!" but anyone who has filed after ~June 2022 is coming from a place of privilege, where we've mostly seen the processing rates increase & processing times decrease, and are likely to get approved within the window we expected. I honestly cannot imagine having started this process with the expectation of 8-9-10 months and then actually experiencing 14-15-16 months instead. They aren't being negative because they want to poop on everyone's parade, they believe they're being reasitic because it happened to them. What they would have given to not have those months of disappointment and frustration! I am empathetic to their lived experience and understand why they have the point of view they do.

agree with Qui, we fully understand and even said it's understandable to be bitter or wary of the process but they shouldn't say it'll be 19months or two yrs as *fact*. They can say current times and warn it could change, I always try to say the times could be better or worse but chances are good that they'll improve (outside of a massive change, like COVID was). I don't think it's fair to give negative timelines or say wait times won't improve because that's how it was for them. People are trying to make the best decision for them and if they're told K1 is slower or same as spousal when there's a decent chance K1 will soon be faster again, they may regret their choice.
My biggest priority was fastest time to close gap, I would be so very upset if I applied for spousal and saw K1 be months faster. Spousal can also vary from country to country, some have long waitlists which can make it 2-3yrs+ but no one says this when comparing k1 to cr1. No one says there's a chance K1 may be faster than CR1 for new filers. 

Saying 'hey timeline is x but it may improve or it may be like mine where it extended by 8months' is fair. You can warn people it may not be as quick as they expect etc without telling them 'you'll be waiting 2yrs for a visa', because that is likely false. The timeline increase happened because of COVID and not to jinx it, but that shouldn't happen again so the likelihood of timelines dramatically increasing like it did for 2020-2022 filers is super unlikely so acting like it will happen because it did once, is not fair to new filers. People waiting 19months has never been a common timeline for k1. It is a negative bias and not fact. 

It's in the same way as positive as I am about improvements, I wouldn't say wait time is 12/13 months just because some get theirs that early because it's not accurate as most get theirs later (14-16)

[AndiB 677]

I see vermont suddenly started having data for k1 again on VJ. Think it's cause of the odd transfer we've seen or? 👀

EDIT: loollll looked it up, seems ot be generated off one entry on VJ 🤭

Edited May 14, 2023 by AndiB

[Obllak[BANNED] 186]

5 hours ago, meladee said:

I understand having the gut reaction of "why are these people so negative?!" but anyone who has filed after ~June 2022 is coming from a place of privilege, where we've mostly seen the processing rates increase & processing times decrease, and are likely to get approved within the window we expected. I honestly cannot imagine having started this process with the expectation of 8-9-10 months and then actually experiencing 14-15-16 months instead. They aren't being negative because they want to poop on everyone's parade, they believe they're being reasitic because it happened to them. What they would have given to not have those months of disappointment and frustration! I am empathetic to their lived experience and understand why they have the point of view they do.

And this is the "problem" of "Processing Times" of official USCIS page, when so many people think they are reflecting the future processing time, while it is showing just historical processing time. They were not being told it will take 8-9-10 months, they were just told that in the past (before this times were published), 80% of cases took 8-9-10 months to be processed. It has nothing to the with the future trend.

Edited May 14, 2023 by Obllak

[Bh_sarah 942]

I try not to think about immigration things during the weekend but I noticed 2 late approvals in my range Friday so here I am.

Just reflecting on the negativity talk. I don't understand where the 19 month advice is coming from. Maybe they don't know Obllak's spreadsheet and are making a progression that processing times will only get bigger and bigger like they did last year. (Just saw her chiming in now while I was writing this! haha) But I would also be careful because people create false hopes really quickly. And even though we are indeed seeing a huge, record increase in overall processing (around 1200 closed per week is HUGE and awesome for everyone who filed recently), there are still people waiting even more than 16.5 months. I just saw a straight approval from November 2021, 554 days for NOA2, and it broke my heart. And if gets even worse when you see this person was approved just on the brink of being able to open an inquiry (it's 18 months now to open an inquiry).

Depending on what's your case, it's easy to become optimistic or terribly pessimist. So best to be realist and show all the precise data we have, say that things are getting better and the processing times are reflective of the 6 prior months and not the future, and also explain that not all petitions of a month are approved at the same time, there is a change you will have wait 2-3 months than the rest out of pure bad luck. I feel it's crazy how much misinformation is getting spread on social media and WhatsApp groups about the this process, and I also understand USCIS is partly at fault for not being transparent at all.

I also don't agree with pushing CR1 for everyone. I understand all its benefits and costs, but getting married first would delay my process even more, and it would be hard for me to stay married to someone and apart for 2 years. It may be silly and some people have no issue with it, but doesn't work out for me and for my views on marriage. And I don't agree either with the whole marriage by proxy approach I'm seeing being recommended here as the ultimate solution for everyone. Sometimes K1 is really the best approach, even if not as "advantageous".

[AndiB 677]

4 minutes ago, Bh_sarah said:

I try not to think about immigration things during the weekend but I noticed 2 late approvals in my range Friday so here I am.

Just reflecting on the negativity talk. I don't understand where the 19 month advice is coming from. Maybe they don't know Obllak's spreadsheet and are making a progression that processing times will only get bigger and bigger like they did last year. (Just saw her chiming in now while I was writing this! haha) But I would also be careful because people create false hopes really quickly. And even though we are indeed seeing a huge, record increase in overall processing (around 1200 closed per week is HUGE and awesome for everyone who filed recently), there are still people waiting even more than 16.5 months. I just saw a straight approval from November 2021, 554 days for NOA2, and it broke my heart. And if gets even worse when you see this person was approved just on the brink of being able to open an inquiry (it's 18 months now to open an inquiry).

Depending on what's your case, it's easy to become optimistic or terribly pessimist. So best to be realist and show all the precise data we have, say that things are getting better and the processing times are reflective of the 6 prior months and not the future, and also explain that not all petitions of a month are approved at the same time, there is a change you will have wait 2-3 months than the rest out of pure bad luck. I feel it's crazy how much misinformation is getting spread on social media and WhatsApp groups about the this process, and I also understand USCIS is partly at fault for not being transparent at all.

I also don't agree with pushing CR1 for everyone. I understand all its benefits and costs, but getting married first would delay my process even more, and it would be hard for me to stay married to someone and apart for 2 years. It may be silly and some people have no issue with it, but doesn't work out for me and for my views on marriage. And I don't agree either with the whole marriage by proxy approach I'm seeing being recommended here as the ultimate solution for everyone. Sometimes K1 is really the best approach, even if not as "advantageous".

agreed! I always try and be honest that there's a good chance it'll improve and currently some are getting approvals at 13 months but most are 14-15 but there are also those getting it 16months+.

I think context is important and most just give their expectation (really fast, middle or really slow) when it could be any

Double agree on marriage visa, people arguing it's better and not accepting someone prefering the k1. It was also the best option for me due to timelines and views on marriage. It def on paper is better to get CR1 but everyone has different needs and views that may affect what's best for *them*

[AndiB 677]

19 minutes ago, Obllak said:

And this is the "problem" of "Processing Times" of official USCIS page, when so many people think they are reflecting the future processing time, while it is showing just historical processing time. They were not being told it will take 8-9-10 months, they were just told that in the past (before this times were published), 80% of cases took 8-9-10 months to be processed. It has nothing to the with the future trend.

yeah everyone losing their minds about it going up to 16.5 and proof that it was only getting worse and improvements were a lie etc. It was exhausting but I do understand it's been getting worse for so long and so drastically for people, they expect it at this pt

[Bh_sarah 942]

13 minutes ago, AndiB said:

agreed! I always try and be honest that there's a good chance it'll improve and currently some are getting approvals at 13 months but most are 14-15 but there are also those getting it 16months+.

I think context is important and most just give their expectation (really fast, middle or really slow) when it could be any

Double agree on marriage visa, people arguing it's better and not accepting someone prefering the k1. It was also the best option for me due to timelines and views on marriage. It def on paper is better to get CR1 but everyone has different needs and views that may affect what's best for *them*

Absolutely. When I filed, I had nothing to base myself on when it came to processing times. Nothing apart from the official USCIS processing times, that was 8 months but also was explained to me as 8-10 months so I didn't have high hopes. I had nowhere to look at, nothing else to think about timelines increasing or decreasing. I didn't even know VJ (a big mistake, I confess). Now it's wonderful we have the data we have from Obllak and many other scanners to see where they are working right now. Maybe people are unaware of the "alternative" data, but that doesn't give them the right to tell an exact date to anyone (I feel no one can tell an exact approval date to anyone).

And yep, I also try a realist and open approach to people deciding on which visa. CR1 right now with K1 taking almost the same looks great on paper. But when you consider personal feelings, the whole getting married and consummating the marriage process, and all the other consequences of marriage and to a bona fide relationship (taxes, joint accounts, change of documents, etc.) – even more complicated with dependants – it *needs* research and deep consideration. It's just not "get married and go for a spousal visa so you don't need to go through AOS" and "can't get together to get married now? just marry online!"... Nothing is that simple. I made a whole spreadsheet with the options I had at the time and spousal visa (with an actual, small wedding with family) would delay my filing in about 4-5 months. I know I would be suffering even more now if I was legally married, but that depends on the individual views.

Edited May 14, 2023 by Bh_sarah

[Vulpis 26]

2 hours ago, Bh_sarah said:

But when you consider personal feelings, the whole getting married and consummating the marriage process, and all the other consequences of marriage and to a bona fide relationship (taxes, joint accounts, change of documents, etc.)

Biggest reason why we didn’t opt for the CR1. Saying do the logical thing and get married and just stay apart EZ is easier said than done. It’s wouldn’t be fun to go through the motions of getting married with the big wedding and all, and then split apart for potentially more than a year. 

[AK65 12]

On 5/12/2023 at 11:59 PM, Obllak said:

We are planning to do the data for I-130 after we launch the website for I-129F

That would be really great!!. Thanks.

[Bh_sarah 942]

15 hours ago, Vulpis said:

Biggest reason why we didn’t opt for the CR1. Saying do the logical thing and get married and just stay apart EZ is easier said than done. It’s wouldn’t be fun to go through the motions of getting married with the big wedding and all, and then split apart for potentially more than a year. 

Oh, definitely. I understand it doesn't matter to some people, but I'd be suffering more. I even have issues thinking we might need a quick city hall, just-sign-the-papers wedding to get ahead of AOS when I get there. It just doesn't feel right. And I am not talking about big weddings either. I feel it should have more significance than a written agreement.

Somehow waiting to get married and start my married life for 2 years is better than waiting to start actually living my married life for 2 years, if that makes sense.

[wav_m 84]

1 hour ago, Bh_sarah said:

Oh, definitely. I understand it doesn't matter to some people, but I'd be suffering more. I even have issues thinking we might need a quick city hall, just-sign-the-papers wedding to get ahead of AOS when I get there. It just doesn't feel right. And I am not talking about big weddings either. I feel it should have more significance than a written agreement.

Somehow waiting to get married and start my married life for 2 years is better than waiting to start actually living my married life for 2 years, if that makes sense.

I feel absolutely the same way – I don't think I'm very sentimental about weddings themselves, but I do know for sure that I'd be ten times more miserable if we were married and living apart. It just doesn't feel like the way I want our marriage to start out.

[Bh_sarah 942]

2 minutes ago, amin krin said:

congratulations for your NOA2  i just saw it in the immigration timeline

Thank you!! Finally got to update my timeline haha and yes, I was waiting to let it be known when I posted today's Feb numbers but guess I've been blabbing so much about my range, other scanner just asked me if I was the lucky one. It was this morning, super super early. The notification didn't even seem real. Still can't believe it. It really happens when you least expect it. Now I get to root for all of you too, hope is sooner than later ☺️

[AndiB 677]

Just now, Bh_sarah said:

Thank you!! Finally got to update my timeline haha and yes, I was waiting to let it be known when I posted today's Feb numbers but guess I've been blabbing so much about my range, other scanner just asked me if I was the lucky one. It was this morning, super super early. The notification didn't even seem real. Still can't believe it. It really happens when you least expect it. Now I get to root for all of you too, hope is sooner than later ☺️

Congrats!!!!!