Number of cases processed hit new high!

[Naterson 129]

2 minutes ago, Vashezzo said:

Something seems fishy with the NVC timelines. If you check their website, they say: "Current case creation time frame: As of 24-Apr-23, we are working on cases that were received from USCIS on 14-Apr-23. We are reviewing documents submitted to us on 10-Apr-23."

 

Makes it sound to me like the bottleneck is still USCIS - they're just delivering the case files very slowly.

You're probably right, and to echo what others have said it does seem like USCIS waits to send cases beyond what they probably could do. Maybe NVC is telling them not to send more or there's some reason for it.

 

I feel like most of the information shared here is pre NOA2. NVC and beyond feels more like a black box, which isn't saying much because we're always left with questions about how USCIS does things and that's what we know best.

[FromMexico W/Love 244]

31 minutes ago, Mr.So said:

But the time chart for NVC to receive cases is trending up. Are we trading one bottle neck for another bottle neck?
 

 

I will trade a ~5 month faster processing from USCIS for a ~1 month processing increase from NVC 10 times out of 10. 

 

[Ronald P 18]

6 hours ago, Vashezzo said:

Something seems fishy with the NVC timelines. If you check their website, they say: "Current case creation time frame: As of 24-Apr-23, we are working on cases that were received from USCIS on 14-Apr-23. We are reviewing documents submitted to us on 10-Apr-23."

 

Makes it sound to me like the bottleneck is still USCIS - they're just delivering the case files very slowly.

Case creation is different than when the embassy actually receives the visa application. 
 

7 hours ago, Mr.So said:

But the time chart for NVC to receive cases is trending up. Are we trading one bottle neck for another bottle neck?
 

The chart is a “rough” estimate of the average length of time for embassy to receive the visa application. 

Each embassy is different. There are some embassies that are more backlogged than others due to receiving way more visa applications than compared to other embassies, COVID restrictions and other factors, all dependent on the country they are in. 
 

In some sense, faster NOA1 approvals will further backlog some embassies that are already backlogged and facing staffing issues or other complications. For some, they are already fully staffed without any restrictions, so it may not create any issue and be business as usual. This is why it’s a rough average.

Remember, most countries outside of the US took COVID more seriously and have only recently lifted restrictions in place.

Edited April 26, 2023 by Ronald P

[Nikobe 129]

2 hours ago, Ronald P said:

The chart is a “rough” estimate of the average length of time for embassy to receive the visa application. 

You probably misread the chart. The chart is

the estimate of when the National Visa Center receives the case from the USCIS after NOA2. The embassies are not yet in play at that point in the process. The NVC is actually responsible to hand the case over to the responsible embassies, but that’s a subsequent step in the process.

 

Current estimates on VJ:

NOA2 -> NVC: 49 days

NVC Processing: 29 days

NVC -> Embassy/Consulate: 8 days

Consulate Processing: 55 days

 

The last step is dependent on a lot of factors including your own preparation, availability of medical appointments and visa appointments at the embassy.

[AndiB 677]

11 minutes ago, Nikobe said:

You probably misread the chart. The chart is

the estimate of when the National Visa Center receives the case from the USCIS after NOA2. The embassies are not yet in play at that point in the process. The NVC is actually responsible to hand the case over to the responsible embassies, but that’s a subsequent step in the process.

 

Current estimates on VJ:

NOA2 -> NVC: 49 days

NVC Processing: 29 days

NVC -> Embassy/Consulate: 8 days

Consulate Processing: 55 days

 

The last step is dependent on a lot of factors including your own preparation, availability of medical appointments and visa appointments at the embassy.

There's a definite link between what your embassy is and how long the NVC stage is. I don't know if USCIS specifically will hold back cases more for busy embassies than not but NVC definitely processes certain embassys faster than others *in general*.

 

I'm UK and USCIS->embassy is pretty consistently fast which shouldn't be the case if it was random on who got slow case ready and who got fast case ready 

[Nikobe 129]

Just now, AndiB said:

There's a definite link between what your embassy is and how long the NVC stage is. I don't know if USCIS specifically will hold back cases more for busy embassies than not but NVC definitely processes certain embassys faster than others *in general*.

 

I'm UK and USCIS->embassy is pretty consistently fast which shouldn't be the case if it was random on who got slow case ready and who got fast case ready 

Ok, I have never heard about this actually - thank you!

[AndiB 677]

10 hours ago, Naterson said:

You're probably right, and to echo what others have said it does seem like USCIS waits to send cases beyond what they probably could do. Maybe NVC is telling them not to send more or there's some reason for it.

 

I feel like most of the information shared here is pre NOA2. NVC and beyond feels more like a black box, which isn't saying much because we're always left with questions about how USCIS does things and that's what we know best.

Also i thought you didn't usually get notified when NVC had your case, only when you got a case number? People always seem to find out NVC has their case via request? Am I wrong?

Wondering how reliable that estimate is. Think it's still best to watch people from your own embassy NOA2-embassy cause mine is always faster than the ave by a month+

[AndiB 677]

10 minutes ago, Nikobe said:

Ok, I have never heard about this actually - thank you!

I haven't collected data but I watch my own embassy timeline on VJ + groups in and mine never seems to really get 'backlogged' while others are at month 3 waiting. It'd be easier if people said what embassy when they complain how long they're waiting 😂

 

I know I read that they wont send a case to an embassy until the embassy greenlights it so I wouldn't be shocked if they it's known throughout the chain that there's no rush for x embassy as they're backlogged so they focus on embassys with open space. That's how I'd manage a workload anyway....I genuinely don't know 100% if they slow down earlier stages for backlogged embassies.

[AndiB 677]

It seems generally it's the embassy who controls when and if they take a case. I know people who ask to switch embassys have to contact the embassy to ask if they will take their case. So NVC def cant just be like 'heres some cases, enjoy!!' 

[AndiB 677]

Also we've seen NVC waits spike last time there was a speed up, winter I think? And it came down about a month later so they seem to be able to control it. Maybe it is by refusing more from USCIS though so it sits in a blackhole between them until they're ready 💀

[Bh_sarah 942]

Chiming in to say this is a good resource to see how NVC waiting have been decreasing: https://visawhen.com/nvc
And it all points out that the wait for NVC sending your case to the embassy does depend on the embassy backlog. NVC will hold out a case for longer to not overwhelm embassies that are already busy.

 

Now, why USCIS is taking long to send the case to NVC is a mystery, maybe NVC also has a limit they can take in. And during this time, there is almost no information available to us, people usually just inquiry about their case until they have confirmation the case was received and they have assigned it a case number.

[Vashezzo 43]

6 hours ago, AndiB said:

It seems generally it's the embassy who controls when and if they take a case. I know people who ask to switch embassys have to contact the embassy to ask if they will take their case. So NVC def cant just be like 'heres some cases, enjoy!!' 

This is 100% correct. I'm not sure it's relevant to most people filing, but as someone with a Russian partner most of my mental energy and stress goes towards trying to figure out how to get a case transfer. The only way for her to attend an interview at the default embassy in Poland is to get a Schengen visa to some 4th party country (not easy) and abuse the lack of internal Schengen border checks to get inside Poland. If you get denied the Schengen visa, the only legal option is to beg various consulates to accept your case, which they are not at all obligated to do.

[Kalehua 36]

Just saw some approvals from today for April 1st in 68000 range.

Edited April 26, 2023 by Kalehua

[FromMexico W/Love 244]

Just now, Kalehua said:

Just saw some approvals from today for April 1st in 68000 range.

[Cheesehead22 86]

1 hour ago, Kalehua said:

Just saw some approvals from today for April 1st in 68000 range.

Finally!!! ♥️♥️♥️♥️♥️