Number of cases processed hit new high!

[AndiB 677]

16 minutes ago, sp207 said:

I filled in December 2022. It should have been mid-November but I sent the I-129F documentation from another country and customs took forever. I have obviously seen the report about USCIS's goals for reducing current backlogs (https://egov.uscis.gov/processing-times/reducing-processing-backlogs), but when I look at actual processing times (https://egov.uscis.gov/processing-times/) for the California Service Center, it's saying that the I-129F ALONE will take 16.5 months. Am I looking at correct information? If that form alone takes so long to process, how long will the rest take? Also, can I use USCIS's new cycle time goals to leverage my congressman into assisting me with this when the 6-month waiting mark passes?

Sorry realise I also missed next part of your question.

 

The 16.5 months (and estimates I have in my previous answer) is just to hear back on the application. It then goes to NVC and then to your embassy. This stage is usually a few months but varies widely depending on embassy. A very busy embassy will delay getting your application due to their own backlogs. Best thing to do is either find a group of people who did k1 at your embassy or look up timelines for people from greece on this website to get a general idea. Unless you have a super busy embassy it's usually about 3-5 months after an approval from USCIS that you have visa in hand. 

[New Romantics 188]

Another great day for numbers!!!

 

Does anyone know whether we schedule our own visa appointment or whether they choose a date for us?

[sp207 3]

30 minutes ago, AndiB said:

The 16.5 months is based on historical data, they base it on the past 6 months which is likely sept-feb. In sept they were processing 2000/month which is less than half of the ~5000 they're processing per month now. That means their estimate is out of date but it's how USCIS does things as usually their processing times don't change that drastically.

 

The *current* time looks to be about 12-16 months with most being 13-14months. They start a new month about every 3 weeks which means the time is constantly decreasing. 

 

For a dec 2022 filer, I expect they'd start Dec in mid-Oct so you have a good chance of seeing an approval or RFE by the new year.

 

Also USCIS 16.5 months is how long until you get an approval or denial. So people who get RFEs and either take a long time to reply, uscis takes a long time to review or both will extend this time. You used to get 60(?) days to respond to RFEs and people often used a majority of it but now it's back to 30days so the tail of approvals/denials due to rfe should hopefully also decrease.

 

Final note, these estimates are purely estimates, sadly there's always a small number left behind. There are people in April 2022 getting approvals at the same time as those in Nov and Dec 2021. It's a small small fraction but there's no guarantee you won't end up someone waiting longer than others so always plan for the worst but hope for the best. Either way you should def get something back from uscis before 16.5 months

Thank you so much for this extremely detailed response. This clarifies so much! After I saw your reply, I started filtering through visible timelines who filed with the California Service Center and have received their NOA-2 in the past two weeks. The current trend seems to reflect that March 2022 filers are being reviewed en masse. So hopefully, if it's as you say and they begin reviewing a new month every 3 weeks, they'll get to us pretty far before the new year.

[AndiB 677]

4 minutes ago, New Romantics said:

Another great day for numbers!!!

 

Does anyone know whether we schedule our own visa appointment or whether they choose a date for us?

Depends on your embassy. I only know for uk and phillipines. Some are self schedule, some schedule for you

 

Some send welcome packs, some don't.

[New Romantics 188]

1 minute ago, AndiB said:

Depends on your embassy. I only know for uk and phillipines. Some are self schedule, some schedule for you

 

Some send welcome packs, some don't.

Interesting! Thank you

 

Does anyone know what Greece does? Like the poster above, Athens is also my embassy. Would be great to know haha

[AndiB 677]

1 minute ago, sp207 said:

Thank you so much for this extremely detailed response. This clarifies so much! After I saw your reply, I started filtering through visible timelines who filed with the California Service Center and have received their NOA-2 in the past two weeks. The current trend seems to reflect that March 2022 filers are being reviewed en masse. So hopefully, if it's as you say and they begin reviewing a new month every 3 weeks, they'll get to us pretty far before the new year.

No problem, it's a confusing process. You can see on detail and up to date info at

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1sN2bo1xZhs8oVU6-QDUdBXBX2_ci8_QJ0wiz59Gp6H4/edit?usp=drivesdk

(Not mine)

 

Just fyi the estimate is prob -2months or so as they'll start a month before they finish the prior ones. They post which months are actively being worked on at least

[sp207 3]

7 minutes ago, New Romantics said:

Interesting! Thank you

 

Does anyone know what Greece does? Like the poster above, Athens is also my embassy. Would be great to know haha

The data I've seen luckily seems to indicate that Greece is fast. I'm not so sure about this website's accuracy and it doesn't specifically mention K-1, but every appointment wait time listed (regardless of visa type) is less than a week. Hopefully this helps! https://visagrader.com/us-visa-appointment-wait-times/greece-grc 

[New Romantics 188]

6 minutes ago, sp207 said:

The data I've seen luckily seems to indicate that Greece is fast. I'm not so sure about this website's accuracy and it doesn't specifically mention K-1, but every appointment wait time listed (regardless of visa type) is less than a week. Hopefully this helps! https://visagrader.com/us-visa-appointment-wait-times/greece-grc 

Oh that's great! Hopefully we won't have to wait long! I have half a mind to call and ask but I might wait till I'm approved at least 🤣

[New Romantics 188]

8 minutes ago, sp207 said:

The data I've seen luckily seems to indicate that Greece is fast. I'm not so sure about this website's accuracy and it doesn't specifically mention K-1, but every appointment wait time listed (regardless of visa type) is less than a week. Hopefully this helps! https://visagrader.com/us-visa-appointment-wait-times/greece-grc 

also from what I have seen Greece processes about 1-2 k1 visas a month so that should help

Edited May 4, 2023 by New Romantics

[FromMexico W/Love 244]

27 minutes ago, New Romantics said:

Interesting! Thank you

 

Does anyone know what Greece does? Like the poster above, Athens is also my embassy. Would be great to know haha

Here is my insider hack to know if your timeline at the embassy will be long or short without seeing the data, just think of how many people from that country are in the US. If it is not a lot then your wait time will more than likely be shorter, for instance Greece is a short wait time and there are not many Greek immigrants in the US. On the other side, China, Brazil, India, and Mexico will have longer wait times based on the amount of visas that those embassy country teams process. I've even seen examples of K1 interviews happening within a week once it got to the embassy.

[AndiB 677]

2 minutes ago, FromMexico W/Love said:

Here is my insider hack to know if your timeline at the embassy will be long or short without seeing the data, just think of how many people from that country are in the US. If it is not a lot then your wait time will more than likely be shorter, for instance Greece is a short wait time and there are not many Greek immigrants in the US. On the other side, China, Brazil, India, and Mexico will have longer wait times based on the amount of visas that those embassy country teams process. I've even seen examples of K1 interviews happening within a week once it got to the embassy.

The problem with that is some embassy's serve multiple countries. I think Egypt for instance takes care of cases from 4 countries so they have a backlog despite not being a common country to immigrate to US

[FromMexico W/Love 244]

3 minutes ago, AndiB said:

The problem with that is some embassy's serve multiple countries. I think Egypt for instance takes care of cases from 4 countries so they have a backlog despite not being a common country to immigrate to US

Yeah that is another factor too! It is just a general rule of thumb though. And some of those embassies that take on other countries cases shifts some as well. Fun fun.  

Edited May 4, 2023 by FromMexico W/Love

[New Romantics 188]

12 minutes ago, FromMexico W/Love said:

Here is my insider hack to know if your timeline at the embassy will be long or short without seeing the data, just think of how many people from that country are in the US. If it is not a lot then your wait time will more than likely be shorter, for instance Greece is a short wait time and there are not many Greek immigrants in the US. On the other side, China, Brazil, India, and Mexico will have longer wait times based on the amount of visas that those embassy country teams process. I've even seen examples of K1 interviews happening within a week once it got to the embassy.

Yeah, this sounds about right. Thank you! There is someone on VJ who just got their NVC received status about 10 days ago and they will be processed at the Athens embassy. I'm waiting to see how long it takes them since there are so few cases from Greece!

[Vero8 7]

Maybe it's a silly question, but I need help to understand it, I'm following this fantastic work, my NOA1  is May 13, 2022, based on these numbers my Noa 2 can be awarded between 3.2 and 2.8,

from today May 4, that means I have What to expect until the end of June? I would appreciate your answers. 

[Naterson 129]

5 minutes ago, Vero8 said:

Maybe it's a silly question, but I need help to understand it, I'm following this fantastic work, my NOA1  is May 13, 2022, based on these numbers my Noa 2 can be awarded between 3.2 and 2.8,

from today May 4, that means I have What to expect until the end of June? I would appreciate your answers. 

That assumption is that every case received before yours is cleared first. You could likely see an approval starting in about 2-3 weeks from now or as far out as October/November

Edited May 4, 2023 by Naterson