Number of cases processed hit new high!

[AndiB 677]

3 minutes ago, Tom.Jen said:

We are in our 8th year of LDR. We initially wanted to get engaged and be married much sooner but then Covid happened… we couldn’t meet in person for 1.5 a year. 
We knew from the beginning that we want to make our engagement and wedding as traditional as possible even if it meant it’ll take longer to get there. For example I knew he was gonna propose, but it was a surprise when and where it’d happen. Maybe it sounds silly, but this was important to me after having such an “untraditional” relationship. 
We got engaged in the US and when I had to come back I was super depressed for a long time. Being on that high and then having to leave him and be apart again was very hard. 
Then I found the forum a week after we filed and saw a lot of people pushing CR1. It made me very anxious and felt like we made a mistake with the K1. 
But then I remember how depressed I was when I had to leave after the engagement and imagine how much worse I’d feel if we had gotten married and would have to leave my *husband* and not see him for months again. It’s just not how we want to spend our first year of marriage. 

I feel the same as you! I don't want my engagement and wedding to be admin nightmare. Maybe that means a longer wait or more hassle and maybe I will regret it but current me wants to be engaged for awhile and wants to be with her husband when married, not apart. 

I'm making my peace with probably having to have a 'legal' wedding then reception later but I'm still trying to 'normalise' everything else as much as possible.

[mdantas90 0]

Sorry for using this space to rant, but I get really sad when thinking about k1 and cr1 visas, really. Been thinking about giving up k1 and applying for cr1 instead because I don't want to leave my job. The idea of being 6 months without work in the US, stranded without visiting my friends and family is so grim, even though the k1 process makes more sense for my relationship right now...
everyday we know less about what to do, or how to move on with our decisions confidently. But we keep going! 

[Bh_sarah 942]

Oh I am so glad I am not the only one. I won't lie, I got into this process knowing I wouldn't be able to work or earn a penny for months but wasn't aware of not being able to drive and other minor restrictions. It was also 8 months for NOA2 when I filed so the sudden increase (that doesn't stop increasing) also made me doubt myself and wonder why we didn't just get married, especially seeing some people recommend spousal visa so strongly. Made me feel bad for choosing K1.

But... Thinking about it after some time... It was the right choice for us. We were ready to get married the moment he proposed, but also we still strongly believe in marriage and it would kill us to be married and stay 2 years apart. Maybe it doesn't matter to some people, but being engaged and apart is better to me than being married and apart. Marriage by proxy online was *never* a choice for us, same as just a civil, city hall wedding. The wedding can be small (and it will probably be), but our family needs to be present and there must be some meaning to it, vows and celebration, not just a civil agreement. And that would take us months to arrange and delay our process even more. I made drastic changes in my life to save money to get through AOS, and I guess some people would happily add a few months to the process just not to go through AOS, but we have maybe a silly idea that we don't mind going through that as long as we're together. Covid restrictions already made us spend too much time apart.

Every couple has its preferences and know what is best for them, and I agree that it's easy to say now spousal visa is the best one in terms of time/costs/having a green card from the start. It depends on your situation to be fair, we aren't super worried on having one income because that's the plan when we have kids, and visa costs going up doesn't stress us, we'll do what we have to do. A green card was never the goal to me either. But sometimes people forget an engagement (a promise to marry) doesn't even compare to a marriage. There are so many legal and physiological implications to it. I know the anxiety and frustration I am experiencing right now would be way worse if we were already legally married, but maybe I'm just biased because I chose K1? Hahah

 

 

[Bh_sarah 942]

16 minutes ago, mdantas90 said:

Sorry for using this space to rant, but I get really sad when thinking about k1 and cr1 visas, really. Been thinking about giving up k1 and applying for cr1 instead because I don't want to leave my job. The idea of being 6 months without work in the US, stranded without visiting my friends and family is so grim, even though the k1 process makes more sense for my relationship right now...
everyday we know less about what to do, or how to move on with our decisions confidently. But we keep going! 

Man... I went through that too as you can see on my post (was typing it for the last 5 min and that's why I didn't see yours first). You do say the K1 makes more sense to your relationship now and I get every couple has their specific preferences and situations. You do need to put it on paper the implications of pursuing CR1 now and see it it's worth for you to abandon K1. Maybe it is. Maybe it isn’t. Just don't feel pushed to do it just because people keep saying it's the superior visa (and even mock people for choosing K1).

Edited March 27, 2023 by Bh_sarah

[ChiuA 108]

2 hours ago, New Romantics said:

Totally! It seems that for some the most important thing is to get to the US asap and they disregard everything else! I'd rather wait 5 more months than get married online!! 

I absolutely agree... it's like u are already dating online..but also marrying online..? Like 😧 it's supposed to be the most important day in the life of a wife (even husband) how can u accept that online 😧 Im happy we went k1 because we still have arguments and other stuff and we know that we will wait another year or even 2 where we have time to figure things out, and sort them out, and look exactly what we were hoping for, happened. We work out stuff together way smoother now, and we are more than ever now ready for marriage :3 I think waiting has seriously it's pluses  I also live I guess in a place that's very secured (Germany) so like I know I don't have to ever rush haha actually so many call me crazy moving to America to my fiance because they're like Germany is such a safe country XD haha Regardless honestly I think waiting while being in a K1 visa isnt that bad because those 2 years u can learn still a lot about each other  

[FromMexico W/Love 244]

2 hours ago, mdantas90 said:

Sorry for using this space to rant, but I get really sad when thinking about k1 and cr1 visas, really. Been thinking about giving up k1 and applying for cr1 instead because I don't want to leave my job. The idea of being 6 months without work in the US, stranded without visiting my friends and family is so grim, even though the k1 process makes more sense for my relationship right now...
everyday we know less about what to do, or how to move on with our decisions confidently. But we keep going! 

You're so far into it! You applied April 2022! If you applied CR1 now you are looking at probably 18 more months of waiting apart from each other (I don't know much about the CR1 timeline compared to K1 lol), so essentially it boils down to would you rather be apart for another year and a half or not work in the US for 6 months? Also you can't forget that you will be making new friends and family in the US too, but you have to do what you think it right.

Edited March 27, 2023 by FromMexico W/Love

[myohmyohmy 15]

On 3/25/2023 at 5:06 PM, Lynxyonok said:

Sorry if mentioned earlier & a repost - but they did increase their processing time to 16.5 months now.

 

Yes, more cases appear to be touched - but quite a few of those are August, September ones... and a lot of those are denials - likely for taking too long to respond to an RFE.

 

I find it extremely puzzling that USCIS is yet to release Q12023 processing statistics. They are 3 months overdue - in the past these were available as quickly as a couple of weeks after a quarter. This is a major red flag for me.

 

But at the same time my VJ timeline keeps shortening. Go figure...

 

P.S. A fresh catch from my data mining: A 9/20/21 case got an initial RFE on 3/20/23. 18 months later. What. WAC2190138257.

The current processing time is NOT16.5 months.  To get the 16.5 months they look at the past 6 months' of data and adjudicated cases, they then compute how long 80% of the adjudicated cases took.  Their processing times were slower in 2021 and 2022 as they had fewer resources plus covid disruptions.  So the cases that have been decided in the last 6 months were cases that started when they were much slower than now.  As the months progress this number will drop as it will start reflecting cases received and processed with the higher staffing/resource level.  16.5 is a lagging number and not representative of the current state.  

[wav_m 84]

8 hours ago, AndiB said:

yup! To me I feel like a lot of advice is just rush into CR1/marriage and figure it out after. It's fine if you're already at a place to get married, I know a lot are and that's totally fine! I just wish they realise a lot aren't, I filed k1 'early' cause I knew we had all the time to figure it out with this wait time 😂
Sadly we're over it now though, we went from 'I don't know' to 'I'm ready' faster than we anticipated

Yeah, we went into K1 with a pretty clear understanding of the drawbacks and advantages of each process. Ultimately, we figured that being apart while actually married would be more depressing than being apart while engaged. We were also really aware of having been together for a relatively short time (like, months) and of only having met in person very shortly before we filed our I-129F. K1 has given us a bit of breathing room to ascertain that yes, we really want to do this! We've been able to 'rehearse' cohabiting, if only for relatively short periods at a time, and we've had some opportunities to travel together (a real stress test for a relationship). I understand why IR1/CR1 is less of a financial burden, in the end, but I stand by our decision to take this route; we feel so much more certain of our commitment, and it will make getting married that much more of a sure thing for us.

[GinoNiña 182]

4 hours ago, myohmyohmy said:

The current processing time is NOT16.5 months.  To get the 16.5 months they look at the past 6 months' of data and adjudicated cases, they then compute how long 80% of the adjudicated cases took.  Their processing times were slower in 2021 and 2022 as they had fewer resources plus covid disruptions.  So the cases that have been decided in the last 6 months were cases that started when they were much slower than now.  As the months progress this number will drop as it will start reflecting cases received and processed with the higher staffing/resource level.  16.5 is a lagging number and not representative of the current state.  

So this 16.5 only applies to September 2022 and beyond filers? Prior to this filers are still in 14.5 months. 

 

[FromMexico W/Love 244]

1 minute ago, GinoNiña said:

So this 16.5 only applies to September 2022 and beyond filers? Prior to this filers are still in 14.5 months. 

 

I think it is the reverse. September 2022 filers are looking at ~13/14 months total, but those prior were more in line with ~15/16 months and those after are ~12/13 months. 

[Vashezzo 43]

13 minutes ago, GinoNiña said:

So this 16.5 only applies to September 2022 and beyond filers? Prior to this filers are still in 14.5 months. 

 

The official number that USCIS publishes isn't actually useful for making predictions, it's just a statement of their past performance. What the 16.5 month number is saying is that they need to go back to October/November of 2021 to reach a month that is 80% processed.

If you look forward, using average weekly cases closed since the start of February, they've been completing roughly 1000-1100 cases per week (compared to 500-600 cases per week in most of 2022). Your NOA1 was April 2022, so there's about 13,000 cases ahead of you. At current pace you can expect roughly 12-13 weeks until your NOA2.

 

As a disclaimer there's a lot of uncertainty with that estimate (since USCIS has been prioritizing the first 50-70ish percent of cases they can complete, then letting the last ones linger in limbo for quite some time). This boosts the speed for the median case (which entirely coincidentally happens to be the metric that they were told to improve on), but does not improve the 80th percentile number that their website reports.

Edited March 27, 2023 by Vashezzo

[FromMexico W/Love 244]

8 minutes ago, Vashezzo said:

The official number that USCIS publishes isn't actually useful for making predictions, it's just a statement of their past performance. What the 16.5 month number is saying is that they need to go back to October/November of 2021 to reach a month that is 80% processed.

If you look forward, using average weekly cases closed since the start of February, they've been completing roughly 1000-1100 cases per week (compared to 500-600 cases per week in most of 2022). Your NOA1 was April 2022, so there's about 13,000 cases ahead of you. At current pace you can expect roughly 12-13 weeks until your NOA2.

 

As a disclaimer there's a lot of uncertainty with that estimate (since USCIS has been prioritizing the first 50-70ish percent of cases they can complete, then letting the last ones linger in limbo for quite some time). This boosts the speed for the median case (which entirely coincidentally happens to be the metric that they were told to improve on), but does not improve the 80th percentile number that their website reports.

I wonder what the reasoning is behind the moving on at ~70%. Are the cases that are "left behind" difficult for some reason and need a different level of investigation and scrutiny? Or is it just a ####### shoot? Who knows.. 

[Vashezzo 43]

3 minutes ago, FromMexico W/Love said:

I wonder what the reasoning is behind the moving on at ~70%. Are the cases that are "left behind" difficult for some reason and need a different level of investigation and scrutiny? Or is it just a ####### shoot? Who knows.. 

If I'm being cynical I would hypothesize that it's a sweet spot for them - they get to bring down the median more quickly by moving on further, and the 80% number isn't being drastically affected (still following the prior pattern of increasing 0.5 months every update).

 

Of course, the current pattern is going to cause other issues down the line when more people start complaining about disparate outcomes that depend on if you were in the lucky half or unlucky half of your month.

Edited March 27, 2023 by Vashezzo

[FromMexico W/Love 244]

Just now, Vashezzo said:

If I'm being cynical I would hypothesize that it's a sweet spot for them - they get to bring down the median more quickly by moving on further, and the 80% number isn't being drastically affected (still following the prior pattern of increasing 0.5 months every update).

 

Of course, the current pattern is going to cause other issues down the line when more people start complaining about a disparity in outcomes depending on if you were in the lucky half or unlucky half of the cases.

Probably just a way to game the numbers. 

 

Also LOL at the system auto hiding C.R.A.P lol 

[GinoNiña 182]

4 hours ago, FromMexico W/Love said:

I think it is the reverse. September 2022 filers are looking at ~13/14 months total, but those prior were more in line with ~15/16 months and those after are ~12/13 months. 

Now your making my head spin...