Number of cases processed hit new high!

[wav_m 84]

I just saw yesterday's numbers on the spreadsheet and came racing over here to celebrate with you all! A dent!! I don't want to get too excited prematurely (I'm a June 22 filer, I assume I have a good number of months still to go) but we have to seize the little victories, right?

[Cheesehead22 86]

My timeline estimate decreased by one week, this is promising 🥹

[Quimat 154]

7 minutes ago, Cheesehead22 said:

My timeline estimate decreased by one week, this is promising 🥹

Mine too ❤️❤️

[Gary Rich 266]

1 hour ago, FromMexico W/Love said:

This is excellent news! And I think that VJ's estimates are behind what we are seeing with the day-to-day data, so those would be more conservative estimates IMO. 

if more people update their time line.. VJ Est's will coincide. thats what i become to notice over the months..

[FromMexico W/Love 244]

1 minute ago, Gary Rich said:

if more people update their time line.. VJ Est's will coincide. thats what i become to notice over the months..

 

Even then it would be a little off, VJ is a limited subsect of data. The numbers that are being pulled now is everything that the WAC is working on. 

[New Romantics 188]

Does anyone know when the first November and December cases started getting approved?

[AndiB 677]

1 minute ago, New Romantics said:

Does anyone know when the first November and December cases started getting approved?

31st jan for dec

[New Romantics 188]

7 minutes ago, AndiB said:

31st jan for dec

Thank you! I'm trying to see how long it's taking for them to move on to the next month

[AndiB 677]

1 minute ago, New Romantics said:

Thank you! I'm trying to see how long it's taking for them to move on to the next month

They have been starting the next month at about 50% then shifting focus at 80% so you can kind of guess if you know how many applications they got for that month but as numbers vary a bit from month to month it's difficult to say x days every month until they move on

[FromMexico W/Love 244]

Just now, New Romantics said:

Thank you! I'm trying to see how long it's taking for them to move on to the next month

I was just thinking of that this morning too, along with what I am calling the "ghost cases" that are listed in the backlog in front of us but it doesn't look like anything is happening with them or it looks like they are handling them so slowly that it skews the actual number of cases in front of us. 

 

Jan-July 2021 cases make up 4,320 cases and I don't know how to factor those into the equation because it doesn't make sense with how USCIS is handling them. If you don't include those cases it takes a month off processing time if you don't include them. 

[New Romantics 188]

1 minute ago, FromMexico W/Love said:

I was just thinking of that this morning too, along with what I am calling the "ghost cases" that are listed in the backlog in front of us but it doesn't look like anything is happening with them or it looks like they are handling them so slowly that it skews the actual number of cases in front of us. 

 

Jan-July 2021 cases make up 4,320 cases and I don't know how to factor those into the equation because it doesn't make sense with how USCIS is handling them. If you don't include those cases it takes a month off processing time if you don't include them. 

That's interesting. Any theories as to why they get left behind? Are they unlucky or are they k3s?

4 minutes ago, AndiB said:

They have been starting the next month at about 50% then shifting focus at 80% so you can kind of guess if you know how many applications they got for that month but as numbers vary a bit from month to month it's difficult to say x days every month until they move on

Yeah, I'm eager to see when they touch feb now

[FromMexico W/Love 244]

I have no idea and no theories why. I wonder if Obllak has any theories or ideas into how to better calculate them into the data. 

[New Romantics 188]

19 minutes ago, FromMexico W/Love said:

I have no idea and no theories why. I wonder if Obllak has any theories or ideas into how to better calculate them into the data. 

Where did you get the 4k number from? I looked at obllaks spreadsheet and it seems that there are only double digits for everyone month from jan to july. Am I missing something?

[Obllak[BANNED] 186]

12 minutes ago, FromMexico W/Love said:

I have no idea and no theories why. I wonder if Obllak has any theories or ideas into how to better calculate them into the data. 

First we were thinking to remove "ghost cases", but at the same time we don't want to alter USCIS data we are presenting, so we decided to work on a specific personalized graph that will take this into the consideration. We are tracking this trend now for few days and will continue to do for at least a month, to be more confident on a number before we publish it. 

But yes, there are "plenty" of statuses whose status were changed more than 15 months ago (for instance: a person that filed in January 2021 received RFE in August 2021 and from that point on the case status was not changed). To me it seems like USCIS never received RFER, but I am wondering at the same time why USCIS didn't come back to these cases and change their status to "denied". So far, for us it is a mystery what exactly is happening with those (so far we haven't seen any activity, so we do consider them "ghost cases").

[New Romantics 188]

1 minute ago, Obllak said:

First we were thinking to remove "ghost cases", but at the same time we don't want to alter USCIS data we are presenting, so we decided to work on a specific personalized graph that will take this into the consideration. We are tracking this trend now for few days and will continue to do for at least a month, to be more confident on a number before we publish it. 

But yes, there are "plenty" of statuses whose status were changed more than 15 months ago (for instance: a person that filed in January 2021 received RFE in August 2021 and from that point on the case status was not changed). To me it seems like USCIS never received RFER, but I am wondering at the same time why USCIS didn't come back to these cases and change their status to "denied". So far, for us it is a mystery what exactly is happening with those (so far we haven't seen any activity, so we do consider them "ghost cases").

Seems to me those are cases where they either broke up or they got married and filed a 130. they should have withdrawn but never did. interesting