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laylalex

Did George Santos lie about everything?

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It's not quite as simple as the headline though.

dXp3dpL.jpg

 

(Data from linked poll here: https://www.monmouth.edu/polling-institute/reports/MonmouthPoll_US_020923/)

 

Part of the seemingly greater unpopularity of McConnell (maybe even all of it, looking at the numbers) is that more people have not heard of Santos or do not have an opinion. The net difference between popularity and unpopularity amongst respondents who had heard of both of them and had an actual opinion is the same: 30%.

 

I drilled a little further down and figured out the percentage of both McConnell and Santos' favorability amongst those who responded who had heard of the person in question, and actually had an opinion. When taken that way, it's still awful in terms of favorability, with McConnell getting about 30% and Santos about 22%. But unfavorability is then 70% for McConnell (net 40%) and 78% for Santos (net 56%).

 

Sure, you can make statistics do lots of interesting things -- for instance, I just stood that headline on its, um, head. But having a better unfavorability rating than someone else doesn't mean you are more popular, or better thought of. To me this is a clickbait headline and okay, I clicked it and then I felt I had to do some math to try to prove myself right. :lol: 

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11 minutes ago, laylalex said:

It's not quite as simple as the headline though.

dXp3dpL.jpg

 

(Data from linked poll here: https://www.monmouth.edu/polling-institute/reports/MonmouthPoll_US_020923/)

 

Part of the seemingly greater unpopularity of McConnell (maybe even all of it, looking at the numbers) is that more people have not heard of Santos or do not have an opinion. The net difference between popularity and unpopularity amongst respondents who had heard of both of them and had an actual opinion is the same: 30%.

 

I drilled a little further down and figured out the percentage of both McConnell and Santos' favorability amongst those who responded who had heard of the person in question, and actually had an opinion. When taken that way, it's still awful in terms of favorability, with McConnell getting about 30% and Santos about 22%. But unfavorability is then 70% for McConnell (net 40%) and 78% for Santos (net 56%).

 

Sure, you can make statistics do lots of interesting things -- for instance, I just stood that headline on its, um, head. But having a better unfavorability rating than someone else doesn't mean you are more popular, or better thought of. To me this is a clickbait headline and okay, I clicked it and then I felt I had to do some math to try to prove myself right. :lol: 

Aren’t a great number of House members fairly unknown to most of the country?

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3 minutes ago, Dashinka said:

Aren’t a great number of House members fairly unknown to most of the country?

It's a good question! I am moving in about 8 weeks, and I had to look up my new representative. I had never heard of him. 

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1 minute ago, laylalex said:

It's a good question! I am moving in about 8 weeks, and I had to look up my new representative. I had never heard of him. 

At least you know he is a Dem.

“If you know the enemy and know yourself, you need not fear the result of a hundred battles. If you know yourself but not the enemy, for every victory gained you will also suffer a defeat. If you know neither the enemy nor yourself, you will succumb in every battle.”

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27 minutes ago, laylalex said:

I felt I had to do some math

Where were you when I was in skool, huh LL ma'am?

 

Algebra, n. - the national language of Algeria

Calculus, n. - what the dental hygienist scrapes from one's teeth

06-04-2007 = TSC stamps postal return-receipt for I-129f.

06-11-2007 = NOA1 date (unknown to me).

07-20-2007 = Phoned Immigration Officer; got WAC#; where's NOA1?

09-25-2007 = Touch (first-ever).

09-28-2007 = NOA1, 23 days after their 45-day promise to send it (grrrr).

10-20 & 11-14-2007 = Phoned ImmOffs; "still pending."

12-11-2007 = 180 days; file is "between workstations, may be early Jan."; touches 12/11 & 12/12.

12-18-2007 = Call; file is with Division 9 ofcr. (bckgrnd check); e-prompt to shake it; touch.

12-19-2007 = NOA2 by e-mail & web, dated 12-18-07 (187 days; 201 per VJ); in mail 12/24/07.

01-09-2008 = File from USCIS to NVC, 1-4-08; NVC creates file, 1/15/08; to consulate 1/16/08.

01-23-2008 = Consulate gets file; outdated Packet 4 mailed to fiancee 1/27/08; rec'd 3/3/08.

04-29-2008 = Fiancee's 4-min. consular interview, 8:30 a.m.; much evidence brought but not allowed to be presented (consul: "More proof! Second interview! Bring your fiance!").

05-05-2008 = Infuriating $12 call to non-English-speaking consulate appointment-setter.

05-06-2008 = Better $12 call to English-speaker; "joint" interview date 6/30/08 (my selection).

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1 minute ago, Boiler said:

At least you know he is a Dem.

I do! And he used to be the rep for the district my old district in Pasadena was redistricted into -- but he had been punted somewhere else before I got there.

 

I do not claim to understand how any of that worked.

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1 minute ago, TBoneTX said:

Where were you when I was in skool, huh LL ma'am?

 

Algebra, n. - the national language of Algeria

Calculus, n. - what the dental hygienist scrapes from one's teeth

I normally have a mathematician in the house to assist me with these things, but he has gone to a Super Bowl party. I am flying solo this afternoon, assisted only by an Excel spreadsheet. :P 

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2 minutes ago, laylalex said:

I do not claim to understand how any of that worked.

Redistricting to deal with the, uh, math of the votes...

06-04-2007 = TSC stamps postal return-receipt for I-129f.

06-11-2007 = NOA1 date (unknown to me).

07-20-2007 = Phoned Immigration Officer; got WAC#; where's NOA1?

09-25-2007 = Touch (first-ever).

09-28-2007 = NOA1, 23 days after their 45-day promise to send it (grrrr).

10-20 & 11-14-2007 = Phoned ImmOffs; "still pending."

12-11-2007 = 180 days; file is "between workstations, may be early Jan."; touches 12/11 & 12/12.

12-18-2007 = Call; file is with Division 9 ofcr. (bckgrnd check); e-prompt to shake it; touch.

12-19-2007 = NOA2 by e-mail & web, dated 12-18-07 (187 days; 201 per VJ); in mail 12/24/07.

01-09-2008 = File from USCIS to NVC, 1-4-08; NVC creates file, 1/15/08; to consulate 1/16/08.

01-23-2008 = Consulate gets file; outdated Packet 4 mailed to fiancee 1/27/08; rec'd 3/3/08.

04-29-2008 = Fiancee's 4-min. consular interview, 8:30 a.m.; much evidence brought but not allowed to be presented (consul: "More proof! Second interview! Bring your fiance!").

05-05-2008 = Infuriating $12 call to non-English-speaking consulate appointment-setter.

05-06-2008 = Better $12 call to English-speaker; "joint" interview date 6/30/08 (my selection).

06-30-2008 = Stokes Interrogations w/Ecuadorian (not USC); "wait 2 weeks; we'll mail her."

07-2008 = Daily calls to DOS: "currently processing"; 8/05 = Phoned consulate, got Section Chief; wrote him.

08-07-08 = E-mail from consulate, promising to issue visa "as soon as we get her passport" (on 8/12, per DHL).

08-27-08 = Phoned consulate (they "couldn't find" our file); visa DHL'd 8/28; in hand 9/1; through POE on 10/9 with NO hassles(!).

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Filed: Citizen (apr) Country: Ecuador
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1 minute ago, laylalex said:

I am flying solo this afternoon, assisted only by an Excel spreadsheet.

You quit your uninhibited, lascivious, raucous partying and start behaving right now, si LL ma'am!  :bonk: 

06-04-2007 = TSC stamps postal return-receipt for I-129f.

06-11-2007 = NOA1 date (unknown to me).

07-20-2007 = Phoned Immigration Officer; got WAC#; where's NOA1?

09-25-2007 = Touch (first-ever).

09-28-2007 = NOA1, 23 days after their 45-day promise to send it (grrrr).

10-20 & 11-14-2007 = Phoned ImmOffs; "still pending."

12-11-2007 = 180 days; file is "between workstations, may be early Jan."; touches 12/11 & 12/12.

12-18-2007 = Call; file is with Division 9 ofcr. (bckgrnd check); e-prompt to shake it; touch.

12-19-2007 = NOA2 by e-mail & web, dated 12-18-07 (187 days; 201 per VJ); in mail 12/24/07.

01-09-2008 = File from USCIS to NVC, 1-4-08; NVC creates file, 1/15/08; to consulate 1/16/08.

01-23-2008 = Consulate gets file; outdated Packet 4 mailed to fiancee 1/27/08; rec'd 3/3/08.

04-29-2008 = Fiancee's 4-min. consular interview, 8:30 a.m.; much evidence brought but not allowed to be presented (consul: "More proof! Second interview! Bring your fiance!").

05-05-2008 = Infuriating $12 call to non-English-speaking consulate appointment-setter.

05-06-2008 = Better $12 call to English-speaker; "joint" interview date 6/30/08 (my selection).

06-30-2008 = Stokes Interrogations w/Ecuadorian (not USC); "wait 2 weeks; we'll mail her."

07-2008 = Daily calls to DOS: "currently processing"; 8/05 = Phoned consulate, got Section Chief; wrote him.

08-07-08 = E-mail from consulate, promising to issue visa "as soon as we get her passport" (on 8/12, per DHL).

08-27-08 = Phoned consulate (they "couldn't find" our file); visa DHL'd 8/28; in hand 9/1; through POE on 10/9 with NO hassles(!).

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Amish farmer alleges George Santos wrote him bad check in exchange for puppies

 

https://www.cnn.com/2023/02/14/politics/santos-puppies-amish-farmer-check/index.html

“If you know the enemy and know yourself, you need not fear the result of a hundred battles. If you know yourself but not the enemy, for every victory gained you will also suffer a defeat. If you know neither the enemy nor yourself, you will succumb in every battle.”

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25 minutes ago, Boiler said:

Amish farmer alleges George Santos wrote him bad check in exchange for puppies

 

https://www.cnn.com/2023/02/14/politics/santos-puppies-amish-farmer-check/index.html

Breaking News: George Santos is Actually a Cartoon Villain 

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10/16/2018 - NVC Received                                              12/17/2019 - Interview Scheduled                          05/10/2023 - Interview - APPROVED!

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12 minutes ago, carmel34 said:

Are they going to do this as an open investigation?  Isn't there a Rep. from Minnesota that had a questionable marriage?

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Filed: Citizen (apr) Country: Ecuador
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1 hour ago, Dashinka said:

a Rep. from Minnesota that had a questionable marriage

Ilhan Omar, married to her brother.

Babylon Bee caught them on a Valentine's Day date. :lol: 

06-04-2007 = TSC stamps postal return-receipt for I-129f.

06-11-2007 = NOA1 date (unknown to me).

07-20-2007 = Phoned Immigration Officer; got WAC#; where's NOA1?

09-25-2007 = Touch (first-ever).

09-28-2007 = NOA1, 23 days after their 45-day promise to send it (grrrr).

10-20 & 11-14-2007 = Phoned ImmOffs; "still pending."

12-11-2007 = 180 days; file is "between workstations, may be early Jan."; touches 12/11 & 12/12.

12-18-2007 = Call; file is with Division 9 ofcr. (bckgrnd check); e-prompt to shake it; touch.

12-19-2007 = NOA2 by e-mail & web, dated 12-18-07 (187 days; 201 per VJ); in mail 12/24/07.

01-09-2008 = File from USCIS to NVC, 1-4-08; NVC creates file, 1/15/08; to consulate 1/16/08.

01-23-2008 = Consulate gets file; outdated Packet 4 mailed to fiancee 1/27/08; rec'd 3/3/08.

04-29-2008 = Fiancee's 4-min. consular interview, 8:30 a.m.; much evidence brought but not allowed to be presented (consul: "More proof! Second interview! Bring your fiance!").

05-05-2008 = Infuriating $12 call to non-English-speaking consulate appointment-setter.

05-06-2008 = Better $12 call to English-speaker; "joint" interview date 6/30/08 (my selection).

06-30-2008 = Stokes Interrogations w/Ecuadorian (not USC); "wait 2 weeks; we'll mail her."

07-2008 = Daily calls to DOS: "currently processing"; 8/05 = Phoned consulate, got Section Chief; wrote him.

08-07-08 = E-mail from consulate, promising to issue visa "as soon as we get her passport" (on 8/12, per DHL).

08-27-08 = Phoned consulate (they "couldn't find" our file); visa DHL'd 8/28; in hand 9/1; through POE on 10/9 with NO hassles(!).

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Filed: Citizen (apr) Country: Ecuador
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George Santos' imaginary campaign donations

 

It's been a comparatively peaceful couple of weeks since we were peppered with headlines about the trail of mendacity that New York Republican George Santos leaves in his wake, but clearly good things don't last forever.  [...]

 

https://hotair.com/jazz-shaw/2023/02/23/george-santos-imaginary-campaign-donations-n532683

06-04-2007 = TSC stamps postal return-receipt for I-129f.

06-11-2007 = NOA1 date (unknown to me).

07-20-2007 = Phoned Immigration Officer; got WAC#; where's NOA1?

09-25-2007 = Touch (first-ever).

09-28-2007 = NOA1, 23 days after their 45-day promise to send it (grrrr).

10-20 & 11-14-2007 = Phoned ImmOffs; "still pending."

12-11-2007 = 180 days; file is "between workstations, may be early Jan."; touches 12/11 & 12/12.

12-18-2007 = Call; file is with Division 9 ofcr. (bckgrnd check); e-prompt to shake it; touch.

12-19-2007 = NOA2 by e-mail & web, dated 12-18-07 (187 days; 201 per VJ); in mail 12/24/07.

01-09-2008 = File from USCIS to NVC, 1-4-08; NVC creates file, 1/15/08; to consulate 1/16/08.

01-23-2008 = Consulate gets file; outdated Packet 4 mailed to fiancee 1/27/08; rec'd 3/3/08.

04-29-2008 = Fiancee's 4-min. consular interview, 8:30 a.m.; much evidence brought but not allowed to be presented (consul: "More proof! Second interview! Bring your fiance!").

05-05-2008 = Infuriating $12 call to non-English-speaking consulate appointment-setter.

05-06-2008 = Better $12 call to English-speaker; "joint" interview date 6/30/08 (my selection).

06-30-2008 = Stokes Interrogations w/Ecuadorian (not USC); "wait 2 weeks; we'll mail her."

07-2008 = Daily calls to DOS: "currently processing"; 8/05 = Phoned consulate, got Section Chief; wrote him.

08-07-08 = E-mail from consulate, promising to issue visa "as soon as we get her passport" (on 8/12, per DHL).

08-27-08 = Phoned consulate (they "couldn't find" our file); visa DHL'd 8/28; in hand 9/1; through POE on 10/9 with NO hassles(!).

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