Jump to content

154 posts in this topic

Recommended Posts

Posted

It's not quite as simple as the headline though.

dXp3dpL.jpg

 

(Data from linked poll here: https://www.monmouth.edu/polling-institute/reports/MonmouthPoll_US_020923/)

 

Part of the seemingly greater unpopularity of McConnell (maybe even all of it, looking at the numbers) is that more people have not heard of Santos or do not have an opinion. The net difference between popularity and unpopularity amongst respondents who had heard of both of them and had an actual opinion is the same: 30%.

 

I drilled a little further down and figured out the percentage of both McConnell and Santos' favorability amongst those who responded who had heard of the person in question, and actually had an opinion. When taken that way, it's still awful in terms of favorability, with McConnell getting about 30% and Santos about 22%. But unfavorability is then 70% for McConnell (net 40%) and 78% for Santos (net 56%).

 

Sure, you can make statistics do lots of interesting things -- for instance, I just stood that headline on its, um, head. But having a better unfavorability rating than someone else doesn't mean you are more popular, or better thought of. To me this is a clickbait headline and okay, I clicked it and then I felt I had to do some math to try to prove myself right. :lol: 

Filed: Citizen (apr) Country: Russia
Timeline
Posted
11 minutes ago, laylalex said:

It's not quite as simple as the headline though.

dXp3dpL.jpg

 

(Data from linked poll here: https://www.monmouth.edu/polling-institute/reports/MonmouthPoll_US_020923/)

 

Part of the seemingly greater unpopularity of McConnell (maybe even all of it, looking at the numbers) is that more people have not heard of Santos or do not have an opinion. The net difference between popularity and unpopularity amongst respondents who had heard of both of them and had an actual opinion is the same: 30%.

 

I drilled a little further down and figured out the percentage of both McConnell and Santos' favorability amongst those who responded who had heard of the person in question, and actually had an opinion. When taken that way, it's still awful in terms of favorability, with McConnell getting about 30% and Santos about 22%. But unfavorability is then 70% for McConnell (net 40%) and 78% for Santos (net 56%).

 

Sure, you can make statistics do lots of interesting things -- for instance, I just stood that headline on its, um, head. But having a better unfavorability rating than someone else doesn't mean you are more popular, or better thought of. To me this is a clickbait headline and okay, I clicked it and then I felt I had to do some math to try to prove myself right. :lol: 

Aren’t a great number of House members fairly unknown to most of the country?

Visa Received : 2014-04-04 (K1 - see timeline for details)

US Entry : 2014-09-12

POE: Detroit

Marriage : 2014-09-27

I-765 Approved: 2015-01-09

I-485 Interview: 2015-03-11

I-485 Approved: 2015-03-13

Green Card Received: 2015-03-24 Yeah!!!

I-751 ROC Submitted: 2016-12-20

I-751 NOA Received:  2016-12-29

I-751 Biometrics Appt.:  2017-01-26

I-751 Interview:  2018-04-10

I-751 Approved:  2018-05-04

N400 Filed:  2018-01-13

N400 Biometrics:  2018-02-22

N400 Interview:  2018-04-10

N400 Approved:  2018-04-10

Oath Ceremony:  2018-06-11 - DONE!!!!!!!

Posted
3 minutes ago, Dashinka said:

Aren’t a great number of House members fairly unknown to most of the country?

It's a good question! I am moving in about 8 weeks, and I had to look up my new representative. I had never heard of him. 

Filed: K-1 Visa Country: Wales
Timeline
Posted
1 minute ago, laylalex said:

It's a good question! I am moving in about 8 weeks, and I had to look up my new representative. I had never heard of him. 

At least you know he is a Dem.

“If you know the enemy and know yourself, you need not fear the result of a hundred battles. If you know yourself but not the enemy, for every victory gained you will also suffer a defeat. If you know neither the enemy nor yourself, you will succumb in every battle.”

Filed: Citizen (apr) Country: Ecuador
Timeline
Posted
27 minutes ago, laylalex said:

I felt I had to do some math

Where were you when I was in skool, huh LL ma'am?

 

Algebra, n. - the national language of Algeria

Calculus, n. - what the dental hygienist scrapes from one's teeth

06-04-2007 = TSC stamps postal return-receipt for I-129f.

06-11-2007 = NOA1 date (unknown to me).

07-20-2007 = Phoned Immigration Officer; got WAC#; where's NOA1?

09-25-2007 = Touch (first-ever).

09-28-2007 = NOA1, 23 days after their 45-day promise to send it (grrrr).

10-20 & 11-14-2007 = Phoned ImmOffs; "still pending."

12-11-2007 = 180 days; file is "between workstations, may be early Jan."; touches 12/11 & 12/12.

12-18-2007 = Call; file is with Division 9 ofcr. (bckgrnd check); e-prompt to shake it; touch.

12-19-2007 = NOA2 by e-mail & web, dated 12-18-07 (187 days; 201 per VJ); in mail 12/24/07.

01-09-2008 = File from USCIS to NVC, 1-4-08; NVC creates file, 1/15/08; to consulate 1/16/08.

01-23-2008 = Consulate gets file; outdated Packet 4 mailed to fiancee 1/27/08; rec'd 3/3/08.

04-29-2008 = Fiancee's 4-min. consular interview, 8:30 a.m.; much evidence brought but not allowed to be presented (consul: "More proof! Second interview! Bring your fiance!").

05-05-2008 = Infuriating $12 call to non-English-speaking consulate appointment-setter.

05-06-2008 = Better $12 call to English-speaker; "joint" interview date 6/30/08 (my selection).

06-30-2008 = Stokes Interrogations w/Ecuadorian (not USC); "wait 2 weeks; we'll mail her."

07-2008 = Daily calls to DOS: "currently processing"; 8/05 = Phoned consulate, got Section Chief; wrote him.

08-07-08 = E-mail from consulate, promising to issue visa "as soon as we get her passport" (on 8/12, per DHL).

08-27-08 = Phoned consulate (they "couldn't find" our file); visa DHL'd 8/28; in hand 9/1; through POE on 10/9 with NO hassles(!).

Posted
1 minute ago, Boiler said:

At least you know he is a Dem.

I do! And he used to be the rep for the district my old district in Pasadena was redistricted into -- but he had been punted somewhere else before I got there.

 

I do not claim to understand how any of that worked.

Posted
1 minute ago, TBoneTX said:

Where were you when I was in skool, huh LL ma'am?

 

Algebra, n. - the national language of Algeria

Calculus, n. - what the dental hygienist scrapes from one's teeth

I normally have a mathematician in the house to assist me with these things, but he has gone to a Super Bowl party. I am flying solo this afternoon, assisted only by an Excel spreadsheet. :P 

Filed: Citizen (apr) Country: Ecuador
Timeline
Posted
2 minutes ago, laylalex said:

I do not claim to understand how any of that worked.

Redistricting to deal with the, uh, math of the votes...

06-04-2007 = TSC stamps postal return-receipt for I-129f.

06-11-2007 = NOA1 date (unknown to me).

07-20-2007 = Phoned Immigration Officer; got WAC#; where's NOA1?

09-25-2007 = Touch (first-ever).

09-28-2007 = NOA1, 23 days after their 45-day promise to send it (grrrr).

10-20 & 11-14-2007 = Phoned ImmOffs; "still pending."

12-11-2007 = 180 days; file is "between workstations, may be early Jan."; touches 12/11 & 12/12.

12-18-2007 = Call; file is with Division 9 ofcr. (bckgrnd check); e-prompt to shake it; touch.

12-19-2007 = NOA2 by e-mail & web, dated 12-18-07 (187 days; 201 per VJ); in mail 12/24/07.

01-09-2008 = File from USCIS to NVC, 1-4-08; NVC creates file, 1/15/08; to consulate 1/16/08.

01-23-2008 = Consulate gets file; outdated Packet 4 mailed to fiancee 1/27/08; rec'd 3/3/08.

04-29-2008 = Fiancee's 4-min. consular interview, 8:30 a.m.; much evidence brought but not allowed to be presented (consul: "More proof! Second interview! Bring your fiance!").

05-05-2008 = Infuriating $12 call to non-English-speaking consulate appointment-setter.

05-06-2008 = Better $12 call to English-speaker; "joint" interview date 6/30/08 (my selection).

06-30-2008 = Stokes Interrogations w/Ecuadorian (not USC); "wait 2 weeks; we'll mail her."

07-2008 = Daily calls to DOS: "currently processing"; 8/05 = Phoned consulate, got Section Chief; wrote him.

08-07-08 = E-mail from consulate, promising to issue visa "as soon as we get her passport" (on 8/12, per DHL).

08-27-08 = Phoned consulate (they "couldn't find" our file); visa DHL'd 8/28; in hand 9/1; through POE on 10/9 with NO hassles(!).

Filed: Citizen (apr) Country: Ecuador
Timeline
Posted
1 minute ago, laylalex said:

I am flying solo this afternoon, assisted only by an Excel spreadsheet.

You quit your uninhibited, lascivious, raucous partying and start behaving right now, si LL ma'am!  :bonk: 

06-04-2007 = TSC stamps postal return-receipt for I-129f.

06-11-2007 = NOA1 date (unknown to me).

07-20-2007 = Phoned Immigration Officer; got WAC#; where's NOA1?

09-25-2007 = Touch (first-ever).

09-28-2007 = NOA1, 23 days after their 45-day promise to send it (grrrr).

10-20 & 11-14-2007 = Phoned ImmOffs; "still pending."

12-11-2007 = 180 days; file is "between workstations, may be early Jan."; touches 12/11 & 12/12.

12-18-2007 = Call; file is with Division 9 ofcr. (bckgrnd check); e-prompt to shake it; touch.

12-19-2007 = NOA2 by e-mail & web, dated 12-18-07 (187 days; 201 per VJ); in mail 12/24/07.

01-09-2008 = File from USCIS to NVC, 1-4-08; NVC creates file, 1/15/08; to consulate 1/16/08.

01-23-2008 = Consulate gets file; outdated Packet 4 mailed to fiancee 1/27/08; rec'd 3/3/08.

04-29-2008 = Fiancee's 4-min. consular interview, 8:30 a.m.; much evidence brought but not allowed to be presented (consul: "More proof! Second interview! Bring your fiance!").

05-05-2008 = Infuriating $12 call to non-English-speaking consulate appointment-setter.

05-06-2008 = Better $12 call to English-speaker; "joint" interview date 6/30/08 (my selection).

06-30-2008 = Stokes Interrogations w/Ecuadorian (not USC); "wait 2 weeks; we'll mail her."

07-2008 = Daily calls to DOS: "currently processing"; 8/05 = Phoned consulate, got Section Chief; wrote him.

08-07-08 = E-mail from consulate, promising to issue visa "as soon as we get her passport" (on 8/12, per DHL).

08-27-08 = Phoned consulate (they "couldn't find" our file); visa DHL'd 8/28; in hand 9/1; through POE on 10/9 with NO hassles(!).

Filed: K-1 Visa Country: Wales
Timeline
Posted

Amish farmer alleges George Santos wrote him bad check in exchange for puppies

 

https://www.cnn.com/2023/02/14/politics/santos-puppies-amish-farmer-check/index.html

“If you know the enemy and know yourself, you need not fear the result of a hundred battles. If you know yourself but not the enemy, for every victory gained you will also suffer a defeat. If you know neither the enemy nor yourself, you will succumb in every battle.”

Filed: Citizen (apr) Country: Australia
Timeline
Posted
25 minutes ago, Boiler said:

Amish farmer alleges George Santos wrote him bad check in exchange for puppies

 

https://www.cnn.com/2023/02/14/politics/santos-puppies-amish-farmer-check/index.html

Breaking News: George Santos is Actually a Cartoon Villain 

K1 to AOS                                                                                   AOS/EAD/AP                                                                      N-400

03/01/2018 - I-129F Mailed                                              06/19/2019 - NOA1 Date                                              01/27/2023 - N-400 Filed Online

03/08/2018 - NOA1 Date                                                    07/11/2019 - Biometrics Appt                                   02/23/2023 - Biometrics Appt
09/14/2018 - NOA2 Date                                                    12/13/2019 - EAD/AP Approved                               04/03/2023 - Interview Scheduled

10/16/2018 - NVC Received                                              12/17/2019 - Interview Scheduled                          05/10/2023 - Interview - APPROVED!

10/21/2018 - Packet 3 Received                                      01/29/2020 - Interview - APPROVED!                  OFFICIALLY A U.S. CITIZEN! 

12/30/2018 - Packet 3 Sent                                               02/04/2020 - Green Card Received! 

01/06/2019 - Packet 4 Received                                     ROC - I-751

01/29/2019 - Interview - APPROVED!                           11/02/2021 - Mailed ROC Packet

02/05/2019 - Visa Received                                             11/04/2021 - NOA1 Date

05/17/2019 - U.S. Arrival                                                     01/19/2022 - Biometrics Waived

05/24/2019 - Married ❤️                                                    02/04/2023 - Transferred to New Office

06/14/2019 - Mailed AOS Packet                                    05/10/2023 - APPROVED!

Filed: Citizen (apr) Country: Russia
Timeline
Posted
12 minutes ago, carmel34 said:

Are they going to do this as an open investigation?  Isn't there a Rep. from Minnesota that had a questionable marriage?

Visa Received : 2014-04-04 (K1 - see timeline for details)

US Entry : 2014-09-12

POE: Detroit

Marriage : 2014-09-27

I-765 Approved: 2015-01-09

I-485 Interview: 2015-03-11

I-485 Approved: 2015-03-13

Green Card Received: 2015-03-24 Yeah!!!

I-751 ROC Submitted: 2016-12-20

I-751 NOA Received:  2016-12-29

I-751 Biometrics Appt.:  2017-01-26

I-751 Interview:  2018-04-10

I-751 Approved:  2018-05-04

N400 Filed:  2018-01-13

N400 Biometrics:  2018-02-22

N400 Interview:  2018-04-10

N400 Approved:  2018-04-10

Oath Ceremony:  2018-06-11 - DONE!!!!!!!

Filed: Citizen (apr) Country: Ecuador
Timeline
Posted
1 hour ago, Dashinka said:

a Rep. from Minnesota that had a questionable marriage

Ilhan Omar, married to her brother.

Babylon Bee caught them on a Valentine's Day date. :lol: 

06-04-2007 = TSC stamps postal return-receipt for I-129f.

06-11-2007 = NOA1 date (unknown to me).

07-20-2007 = Phoned Immigration Officer; got WAC#; where's NOA1?

09-25-2007 = Touch (first-ever).

09-28-2007 = NOA1, 23 days after their 45-day promise to send it (grrrr).

10-20 & 11-14-2007 = Phoned ImmOffs; "still pending."

12-11-2007 = 180 days; file is "between workstations, may be early Jan."; touches 12/11 & 12/12.

12-18-2007 = Call; file is with Division 9 ofcr. (bckgrnd check); e-prompt to shake it; touch.

12-19-2007 = NOA2 by e-mail & web, dated 12-18-07 (187 days; 201 per VJ); in mail 12/24/07.

01-09-2008 = File from USCIS to NVC, 1-4-08; NVC creates file, 1/15/08; to consulate 1/16/08.

01-23-2008 = Consulate gets file; outdated Packet 4 mailed to fiancee 1/27/08; rec'd 3/3/08.

04-29-2008 = Fiancee's 4-min. consular interview, 8:30 a.m.; much evidence brought but not allowed to be presented (consul: "More proof! Second interview! Bring your fiance!").

05-05-2008 = Infuriating $12 call to non-English-speaking consulate appointment-setter.

05-06-2008 = Better $12 call to English-speaker; "joint" interview date 6/30/08 (my selection).

06-30-2008 = Stokes Interrogations w/Ecuadorian (not USC); "wait 2 weeks; we'll mail her."

07-2008 = Daily calls to DOS: "currently processing"; 8/05 = Phoned consulate, got Section Chief; wrote him.

08-07-08 = E-mail from consulate, promising to issue visa "as soon as we get her passport" (on 8/12, per DHL).

08-27-08 = Phoned consulate (they "couldn't find" our file); visa DHL'd 8/28; in hand 9/1; through POE on 10/9 with NO hassles(!).

Filed: Citizen (apr) Country: Ecuador
Timeline
Posted

George Santos' imaginary campaign donations

 

It's been a comparatively peaceful couple of weeks since we were peppered with headlines about the trail of mendacity that New York Republican George Santos leaves in his wake, but clearly good things don't last forever.  [...]

 

https://hotair.com/jazz-shaw/2023/02/23/george-santos-imaginary-campaign-donations-n532683

06-04-2007 = TSC stamps postal return-receipt for I-129f.

06-11-2007 = NOA1 date (unknown to me).

07-20-2007 = Phoned Immigration Officer; got WAC#; where's NOA1?

09-25-2007 = Touch (first-ever).

09-28-2007 = NOA1, 23 days after their 45-day promise to send it (grrrr).

10-20 & 11-14-2007 = Phoned ImmOffs; "still pending."

12-11-2007 = 180 days; file is "between workstations, may be early Jan."; touches 12/11 & 12/12.

12-18-2007 = Call; file is with Division 9 ofcr. (bckgrnd check); e-prompt to shake it; touch.

12-19-2007 = NOA2 by e-mail & web, dated 12-18-07 (187 days; 201 per VJ); in mail 12/24/07.

01-09-2008 = File from USCIS to NVC, 1-4-08; NVC creates file, 1/15/08; to consulate 1/16/08.

01-23-2008 = Consulate gets file; outdated Packet 4 mailed to fiancee 1/27/08; rec'd 3/3/08.

04-29-2008 = Fiancee's 4-min. consular interview, 8:30 a.m.; much evidence brought but not allowed to be presented (consul: "More proof! Second interview! Bring your fiance!").

05-05-2008 = Infuriating $12 call to non-English-speaking consulate appointment-setter.

05-06-2008 = Better $12 call to English-speaker; "joint" interview date 6/30/08 (my selection).

06-30-2008 = Stokes Interrogations w/Ecuadorian (not USC); "wait 2 weeks; we'll mail her."

07-2008 = Daily calls to DOS: "currently processing"; 8/05 = Phoned consulate, got Section Chief; wrote him.

08-07-08 = E-mail from consulate, promising to issue visa "as soon as we get her passport" (on 8/12, per DHL).

08-27-08 = Phoned consulate (they "couldn't find" our file); visa DHL'd 8/28; in hand 9/1; through POE on 10/9 with NO hassles(!).

 

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
- Back to Top -

Important Disclaimer: Please read carefully the Visajourney.com Terms of Service. If you do not agree to the Terms of Service you should not access or view any page (including this page) on VisaJourney.com. Answers and comments provided on Visajourney.com Forums are general information, and are not intended to substitute for informed professional medical, psychiatric, psychological, tax, legal, investment, accounting, or other professional advice. Visajourney.com does not endorse, and expressly disclaims liability for any product, manufacturer, distributor, service or service provider mentioned or any opinion expressed in answers or comments. VisaJourney.com does not condone immigration fraud in any way, shape or manner. VisaJourney.com recommends that if any member or user knows directly of someone involved in fraudulent or illegal activity, that they report such activity directly to the Department of Homeland Security, Immigration and Customs Enforcement. You can contact ICE via email at Immigration.Reply@dhs.gov or you can telephone ICE at 1-866-347-2423. All reported threads/posts containing reference to immigration fraud or illegal activities will be removed from this board. If you feel that you have found inappropriate content, please let us know by contacting us here with a url link to that content. Thank you.
×
×
  • Create New...