USCIS Q4 FY2022 Processing times report

[Lynxyonok 316]

The link is here: https://www.uscis.gov/sites/default/files/document/data/Quarterly_All_Forms_FY2022_Q4.pdf

 

Overall, USCIS is still slowing down - 7 I-129Fs closed for every 12 received. This is on par with Q3, better than Q1 or Q2, but way, way worse than FY2021.

 

There's massive emphasis on employment applications and employment-based adjustments of statuses. Family-based form approvals across the board are down.

 

Processing times for those filing now is about 22.5 months.

[SalishSea 17,801]

1 hour ago, Lynxyonok said:

The link is here: https://www.uscis.gov/sites/default/files/document/data/Quarterly_All_Forms_FY2022_Q4.pdf

 

Overall, USCIS is still slowing down - 7 I-129Fs closed for every 12 received. This is on par with Q3, better than Q1 or Q2, but way, way worse than FY2021.

 

There's massive emphasis on employment applications and employment-based adjustments of statuses. Family-based form approvals across the board are down.

 

Processing times for those filing now is about 22.5 months.

It says 14 months.   Where are you seeing the 22.5?

Edited December 17, 2022 by Jorgedig

[FilledesEtoiles 336]

Why is the denial rate so high, that got me worried ... like waiting all this time for nothing and refile for spousal afterwards ...

With all this time waiting, I am starting to get irrational fears ....

[biscoito1r 73]

6 minutes ago, FilledesEtoiles said:

Why is the denial rate so high, that got me worried ... like waiting all this time for nothing and refile for spousal afterwards ...

With all this time waiting, I am starting to get irrational fears ....

Too many cases of fraud. For instance, in Vietnam I've heard that they had cases where the uncle would apply for his niece just to get her to the US. I'm also worried because even though I have more than the required amount of money in savings, I haven't worked in over 6 months.

You should be in a better position than me because France is not on the list of countries with high fraud rate. Getting into the States is not an issue for French citizens.

[FilledesEtoiles 336]

1 minute ago, biscoito1r said:

Too many cases of fraud. For instance, in Vietnam I've heard that they had cases where the uncle would apply for his niece just to get her to the US. I'm also worried because even though I have more than the required amount of money in savings, I haven't worked in over 6 months.

You should be in a better position than me because France is not on the list of countries with high fraud rate. Getting into the States is not an issue for French citizens.

Yes, I can only imagine all the fraud networks, and indeed it is an unfair problem for honest people in real relationships. A lot of fraud in France as well, with illegal networks. He can not live in France for the moment, it would have been a lot faster, and much better ... we have no logical reasons to get denied, but all this waiting without any news can make you crazy. 

[Lynxyonok 316]

10 hours ago, Jorgedig said:

It says 14 months.   Where are you seeing the 22.5?

 

Pending forms: 55,425

Completed forms Q4-2022: 7,033

55,425 / 7,033 = 7.88 quarters' worth of pent-up data

7.88 * 3 = 23.64 months' worth of pent-up data

Discounting 2% of volume for exponentially increased withdrawals and visa-type switches

= 22.5 months

 

 

[New Romantics 188]

1 hour ago, Lynxyonok said:

 

Pending forms: 55,425

Completed forms Q4-2022: 7,033

55,425 / 7,033 = 7.88 quarters' worth of pent-up data

7.88 * 3 = 23.64 months' worth of pent-up data

Discounting 2% of volume for exponentially increased withdrawals and visa-type switches

= 22.5 months

 

 

That's very insightful! You seem to really understand these things so I have a question. I looked at the same report but for the 1st quarter of 2021 and I followed the same calculation you did to get 22.5 months and the result for 1st quarter of '21 would have been around 21.5 months. But I'm seeing people from October already being approved now which puts them more at about 14 months at the earliest. How is that possible? Unless my calculation is way off or I misunderstood something. I'm bad at math haha.

[Lynxyonok 316]

1 hour ago, New Romantics said:

That's very insightful! You seem to really understand these things so I have a question. I looked at the same report but for the 1st quarter of 2021 and I followed the same calculation you did to get 22.5 months and the result for 1st quarter of '21 would have been around 21.5 months. But I'm seeing people from October already being approved now which puts them more at about 14 months at the earliest. How is that possible? Unless my calculation is way off or I misunderstood something. I'm bad at math haha.

I will start by saying that you're correct on every point made (except for the one where I was described as insightful 😜).

 

1. Yes, October 2021 is being approved now. Yes, that's a 14.2 month mark (a week ago it was 14.0). However, these are forerunners, and they are very few. I only saw 2 cases past mid-November.

 

2. The approval queue is very spread out. A lot of action is in September, and even there it's a 1 in 3 chance to catch an RFE. My theory is that I-129Fs are given out in batches (Have you seen "Saving Private Ryan", the scene with all the typewriters?) - easiest cases go first, then harder ones. New cases aren't given to an operator until their workload drops low enough.

 

An interesting point: many September 2021 cases are slammed with an "Additional RFE Sent" bypassing "Initial RFE Sent" - to me it's a Doomsday scenario where an application is only given one chance instead of two, as if in a way to get it denied faster. My case research isn't far enough into 2021 to be able to tell.

 

3. My research concentrates on future cases whereas USCIS reports past ones. Both numbers are correct (well, theirs is, mine is a guess). The fact is, USCIS is slowing down every quarter, so in about a year I expect processing times to be closer to what I'm posting as opposed to what they are. Again, my numbers are guesses, and I may be wrong or may change my opinion with further research.

 

4. I'd like to clarify which quarters we are talking about. USCIS year runs October to September; Q1 2021 is actually October 1, 2020 to December 31, 2020 (the year is drawn from when it ends, after all). For a further example, right this moment we are in Q1 2023 (It's after October 1st, it's before December 31st, and this fiscal year will end in 2023, as in September 30, 2023).

 

Great response! Can't wait to hear back from you.

[Crazy Cat 41,806]

Wow!  Over 1.8 million I-130s pending......  and over 500,000 N-400s pending...... Outrageous.

[Lynxyonok 316]

3 minutes ago, Crazy Cat said:

Wow!  Over 1.8 million I-130s pending......  and over 500,000 N-400s pending...... Outrageous.

 

Is this why USCIS is hiring attorneys in several states? 😋

 

In all seriousness though: if USCIS was truly hurting for staffing at service centers, there'd be openings posted at those centers.

 

Right now, there's one L3 position in Nebraska, and that's it. 

[Crazy Cat 41,806]

3 minutes ago, Lynxyonok said:

 

Is this why USCIS is hiring attorneys in several states? 😋

 

In all seriousness though: if USCIS was truly hurting for staffing at service centers, there'd be openings posted at those centers.

 

Right now, there's one L3 position in Nebraska, and that's it. 

The previous administration tried to increase filing fees which, imo, would have resulted in more hiring.  Some federal judge blovked it, if I remember correctly. 

[Lynxyonok 316]

3 minutes ago, Crazy Cat said:

The previous administration tried to increase filing fees which, imo, would have resulted in more hiring.  Some federal judge blovked it, if I remember correctly. 

 

I realize this board prohibits negative comments. That's terms of use I accepted when joining.

 

That said, with USCIS slowing and with illegal border crossings spiking month after month, what is a good way forward for those of us working through the hurdles the right way? As the world grows more digital, long-distance relationships are only going to grow. 

[Crazy Cat 41,806]

5 minutes ago, Lynxyonok said:

 

I realize this board prohibits negative comments. That's terms of use I accepted when joining.

 

That said, with USCIS slowing and with illegal border crossings spiking month after month, what is a good way forward for those of us working through the hurdles the right way? As the world grows more digital, long-distance relationships are only going to grow. 

Yep.  I just don't see a light at the end of the processing tunnel.  They can promise to bring waiting times down, but I don't see any way under present circumstances...... unless they declare a wholesale amnesty and approve a LOT of pending petitions.   The current administration plans to make the English portion of the citizenship interview "easier".  They are just focusing on the wrong issues. 

-  Daily rant over

Edited December 17, 2022 by Crazy Cat

[Lynxyonok 316]

12 minutes ago, Crazy Cat said:

Yep.  I just don't see a light at the end of the processing tunnel.  They can promise to bring waiting times down, but I don't see any way under present circumstances...... unless they declare a wholesale amnesty and approve a LOT of pending petitions.   The current administration plans to make the English portion of the citizenship interview "easier".  They are just focusing on the wrong issues. 

 

Here's the part I don't get.

 

Having employees work 7 days a week on new employment-related visas for applicates outside of US while delaying abilities of individuals already here to get a job.

 

As our Zoomer friends would say, whut?

[New Romantics 188]

On 12/17/2022 at 8:06 PM, Lynxyonok said:

I will start by saying that you're correct on every point made (except for the one where I was described as insightful 😜).

 

1. Yes, October 2021 is being approved now. Yes, that's a 14.2 month mark (a week ago it was 14.0). However, these are forerunners, and they are very few. I only saw 2 cases past mid-November.

 

2. The approval queue is very spread out. A lot of action is in September, and even there it's a 1 in 3 chance to catch an RFE. My theory is that I-129Fs are given out in batches (Have you seen "Saving Private Ryan", the scene with all the typewriters?) - easiest cases go first, then harder ones. New cases aren't given to an operator until their workload drops low enough.

 

An interesting point: many September 2021 cases are slammed with an "Additional RFE Sent" bypassing "Initial RFE Sent" - to me it's a Doomsday scenario where an application is only given one chance instead of two, as if in a way to get it denied faster. My case research isn't far enough into 2021 to be able to tell.

 

3. My research concentrates on future cases whereas USCIS reports past ones. Both numbers are correct (well, theirs is, mine is a guess). The fact is, USCIS is slowing down every quarter, so in about a year I expect processing times to be closer to what I'm posting as opposed to what they are. Again, my numbers are guesses, and I may be wrong or may change my opinion with further research.

 

4. I'd like to clarify which quarters we are talking about. USCIS year runs October to September; Q1 2021 is actually October 1, 2020 to December 31, 2020 (the year is drawn from when it ends, after all). For a further example, right this moment we are in Q1 2023 (It's after October 1st, it's before December 31st, and this fiscal year will end in 2023, as in September 30, 2023).

 

Great response! Can't wait to hear back from you.

You have made some very interesting points! I didn't know the thing about them only issuing one RFE to make things go faster. I have given this some more thought and after looking at the reports from both years I have also come to the conclusion that the wait time never reached 21 months because they were also closing more cases! So I would assume that unless they actually increase the number of cases they close, the number you have come up with should be pretty accurate. Hopefully they reach 8000 closed per quarter at least. That should slow down the backlog a bit and spare us from having to wait 2+ years.