Processing now up to 15months

[Gary Rich 284]

3 minutes ago, AndiB said:

yes, it's an average of the last 6months so most are already on 15-16month timetables. Yours will, as things stand, most likely take 15months-ish, so yes a couple more months. 
The timeline is always a current, or most current one. People who just applied are likely to be waiting longer than 15months

ok.. it will be 12 months next month for me.. at best I'm looking at the next 3 to 4 months correct ?

[AndiB 677]

1 hour ago, FilledesEtoiles said:

So do you think it will go up for years/months until they let it die in a corner?

It is probably a strategy to come to that.

Almost 8 months in, a bit late to change to spousal, I wish we did early on, but we just didn't know ...

I replied to somebody else but no, they are increasing the number they processed, it's almost double/ week what is was in april but it isn't enough to offset backlog currently which leads to an increase. In april about 400-500 would be added to the backlog/week, now it's 'only' 200-300.
I would hope they aim to at least process as many as they receive or maybe a bit more to start bringing the times back down. 6months by Oct 2023 is a pipedream though 

[AndiB 677]

1 minute ago, Gary Rich said:

ok.. it will be 12 months next month for me.. at best I'm looking at the next 3 to 4 months correct ?

that seems the most likely. If you have a timeline on your profile, I believe visa journey bases the estimate off current members timelines (so most up to date) instead of the USCIS estimate. This would probably be a decent guide to keep an eye on. 

[Mr.So 56]

@AndiB and @Gary Rich, Thank you so much for your insights. I am not very good with math. If I got my NOA1 on April 22, 2022, would July be the right time frame I should receive NOA2? 

Edited November 4, 2022 by Mr.So

[FilledesEtoiles 336]

3 minutes ago, AndiB said:

I agree that the chances of it going to 6months feel close to nill unless a dramatic shift happens soon but the trend has improved. The amount being processed almost doubled from april to october this year. It's just that it's not enough to off set the backlog. I don't think they've just left K1's to die and I do think 6months seems very unrealistic unless they know something we don't that will equate to 1000+ cases processed per week soon, ie another doubling. They're definitely improving, we just have to hope it continues and maybe more rapidly than it has in the past. 

New staff and new technology takes forever to implement and from what I read on another forum here, USCIS has high turn over so even with a lot of new hires, it may not be as many as they'd hoped with others leaving.

I'm very bad at math, but how can they be improving if the processing times keep going up?
Does that mean that they are getting faster, but it is not showing yet?

 

[AndiB 677]

1 minute ago, Mr.So said:

@AndiB and @Gary Rich, Thank you so much for your insights. I am not very good with math. If I got my NOA1 on April 22, 2022, would July be the right time frame for I should receive NOA2? 

The 15month estimate is for *current* people coming up on their NOA2 expected date. By the time we get to the front of the line it'll most likely be longer than 15months. Different people have different estimates but https://www.youtube.com/channel/UC-j8oeknNu89pFRZLEWSwwQ seems to be in line with the kind of estimates I get. So for you, at the current trend it'd be Oct 2023.

This could improve, it already has in the last few months. Mine went from 24 months to 20 so I would just keep an eye on the trends and estimate the worst, hope for the best

[AndiB 677]

6 minutes ago, FilledesEtoiles said:

I'm very bad at math, but how can they be improving if the processing times keep going up?
Does that mean that they are getting faster, but it is not showing yet?

 

If you look at https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/u/0/d/15hiSOTm85W1CG6c0jzQ8B7lXLo1JEwsWKr3zIszC2Zg/htmlview#
You can see that the number they process per week has almost doubled. It's about 500, but they get about 800 new ones a week.
ie they aren't processing them at the pace they are coming in so more and more are going on the backlog pile. As the pile grows the wait time increases as there are more applications between current and yours. ie it takes longer to get to the front of the line.
We won't see wait times improve until amount processed per week exceed amount they receive. 

Edit: if they hadn't nearly doubled the number they process, wait times would have increased more rapidly, so basically the amount the wait time increases is slowing. That's the improvement. It's not great but it could be worse

Edited November 4, 2022 by AndiB

[FilledesEtoiles 336]

2 minutes ago, AndiB said:

The 15month estimate is for *current* people coming up on their NOA2 expected date. By the time we get to the front of the line it'll most likely be longer than 15months. Different people have different estimates but https://www.youtube.com/channel/UC-j8oeknNu89pFRZLEWSwwQ seems to be in line with the kind of estimates I get. So for you, at the current trend it'd be Oct 2023.

This could improve, it already has in the last few months. Mine went from 24 months to 20 so I would just keep an eye on the trends and estimate the worst, hope for the best

Thank you, we filed end of March, so it confirms that spousal at this point for us wouldn't make any sense

[AndiB 677]

Just now, FilledesEtoiles said:

Thank you, we filed end of March, so it confirms that spousal at this point for us wouldn't make any sense

I am really unsure of spousal timeline, I see people say 1-2yrs (but obv no adjustment of status etc after like a fiance) so it's recommended that if you're already in the fiance queue, stay in it. I don't know the numbers personally but that's been the general advice on the forum I've seen.

[Anna Hessler 119]

1 hour ago, Gary Rich said:

Good Day.. I just want to follow up on something that you are saying ( I'm not perfect here but I'll try ) USCIS push their waiting time up to 15 months ( correct ) So what if a person already has 12 or 13 months in.. ( right ) would that mean only an extra 2 or 3 months  will be added to the time in, in which the case would be at 15 months.. so in other words.. case's that are 10 , 11, 12 months in.. would only have to wait a few more months.. ( I'm hoping i made sense here) Thank you

The 15 month backlog means that they are working on cases submitted 15 months ago. 15 months ago is August 2021, so this is accurate. That is what they are processing right now. We know that from our scans. 
 

As far as when can you hope to have your month worked on? Almost impossible to tell because we can’t guarantee that their speeds stay the same. If their speed remains the same, December 2021 filers will see decisions in March 2023. IF speed stays the same. 

[Anna Hessler 119]

17 minutes ago, AndiB said:

I agree that the chances of it going to 6months feel close to nill unless a dramatic shift happens soon but the trend has improved. The amount being processed almost doubled from april to october this year. It's just that it's not enough to off set the backlog. I don't think they've just left K1's to die and I do think 6months seems very unrealistic unless they know something we don't that will equate to 1000+ cases processed per week soon, ie another doubling. They're definitely improving, we just have to hope it continues and maybe more rapidly than it has in the past. 

New staff and new technology takes forever to implement and from what I read on another forum here, USCIS has high turn over so even with a lot of new hires, it may not be as many as they'd hoped with others leaving.

And I agree with all of your points! Yes, processing speed doubled from this summer. Over the summer, they barely cleared 300 cases per week. That’s how the backlog nearly doubled and went from 7 months to 13. 
 

The backlog is still growing, just not as badly. They improved, but not enough. 

[FilledesEtoiles 336]

1 minute ago, AndiB said:

I am really unsure of spousal timeline, I see people say 1-2yrs (but obv no adjustment of status etc after like a fiance) so it's recommended that if you're already in the fiance queue, stay in it. I don't know the numbers personally but that's been the general advice on the forum I've seen.

Thank you for your help, very very much appreciated. Yes, for spousal the current line only for uscis is about 12 months, roughly, and NVC takes longer. So you are correct, it is not advised to change at this point

[AndiB 677]

1 minute ago, Anna Hessler said:

The 15 month backlog means that they are working on cases submitted 15 months ago. 15 months ago is August 2021, so this is accurate. That is what they are processing right now. We know that from our scans. 
 

As far as when can you hope to have your month worked on? Almost impossible to tell because we can’t guarantee that their speeds stay the same. If their speed remains the same, December 2021 filers will see decisions in March 2023. IF speed stays the same. 

Tbh, I read somewhere staff take about 6months to onboard due to training and security which would explain the increase in processing in Oct, putting at us at about 6months since they announced the aim to improve. Maybe the processing will continue to gradually improve as staff join? Maybe I'm just dreaming 😂

[Anna Hessler 119]

13 minutes ago, FilledesEtoiles said:

I'm very bad at math, but how can they be improving if the processing times keep going up?
Does that mean that they are getting faster, but it is not showing yet?

 

They’re improving in the sense that they aren’t as bad as they were. 
 

They used to process 300 a week. Now they process ~700 per week. They need to do a minimum of ~850 per week for the backlog to STOP GROWING. For the backlog to be eliminated, we need 1000+. 

[Anna Hessler 119]

1 hour ago, FilledesEtoiles said:

So do you think it will go up for years/months until they let it die in a corner?

It is probably a strategy to come to that.

Almost 8 months in, a bit late to change to spousal, I wish we did early on, but we just didn't know ...

I don’t think it will go up for years until it dies. 
 

My personal opinion (and this is just my opinion, do with it what you will) is that the backlog is permanent. This COVID damage will never be resolved. In order for the backlog to be reduced, they’d have to clear more cases than they receive. I’ve looked at data for the last 5-10 years or so, and this rarely happens. They usually meet the demand at best, they never do better. 
 

USCIS gets about 3400 applications per month. This has been a trend for years. For the backlog to be met and for processing time to remain stable, they’d have to clear ~850 cases per week. To reduce the backlog, they’d have to process at least 1000+ per week. That hasn’t happened in years. 
 

So I think the backlog is permanent. Barring anything that closely resembles a miracle, I don’t see them ever clearing the backlog. It might stop growing, but I don’t see it ever going away. Not significantly at least. The family visas are not a priority. Family visas don’t make the government any money. Work visas do. Work visas means more tax payers. 
 

But again, just my opinion based on my knowledge of what is important to the US federal government.