Processing now up to 15months

[AndiB 677]

4 hours ago, Mr.So said:

Hi guys, is what she saying true?

 

honestly I struggled to follow this a bit. If the general point is we expect to see reductions in wait time this fiscal year, then yes. They announced in March(?) they wanted wait times to go down to 6months by Oct 2023. I don't think it'll be as low as 6months due to the size of the backlog but I do expect we'll see *some* improvement. I hope a lot but honestly...I can live with minor improvements. Anything that isn't this constant +0.5months increase.

[Anna Hessler 119]

10 hours ago, Mr.So said:

Hi guys, is what she saying true?

 

The English grammar in this is so poor that I can't understand it. So I'm with the above commenter.

 

But we just spent three pages talking about how the backlog is growing. Genuinely not trying to be a downer here but, no, it is impossible for the I-129F processing time to be reduced to 6 months by September 2023. 

 

Unless something changes, the time will continue to grow. Not be reduced. And we have ben given zero indications of change. At the current rate, the backlog grows by about ~1/3 of a month per month. Given that there are about 10 months left in this fiscal year, we can expect the processing time to increase by another ~3.3 months by the end of the fiscal year. So, 18 months by September 2023. There are some people on here in other forums who are expecting it to reach nearly 22 months by the end of the fiscal year. Again, this is all if the processing speed does not increase. We saw the processing speed almost double with the new hires. But, those new hires are already onboarded and working and we are still seeing the backlog increase (just not as quickly). As far as I can tell, there hasn't been another large sum of money given to USCIS for even more employees. The money and hiring was a FY2022 project, so it's done. It looks like hiring is nearly complete, so the improvement is as good as it's going to get. (If anyone wants to fact check this or add anything please do!) They expected these new hires to help reduce the backlog, which is why they released those lofty goals, but that didn't happen.

 

Keep writing letters and try to get someone's attention. USCIS needs money and bodies to process cases. The best thing we can do is campaign for premium processing for family visas. 

[Lynxyonok 316]

20 hours ago, Mr.So said:

Hi guys, is what she saying true?

 

 

That K-1 visas only take 4 months to process in California center right now (6:14 timestamp)? Absolutely not.

 

I wouldn't invest any future time in videos by this poster.

[FilledesEtoiles 336]

18 hours ago, Anna Hessler said:

The English grammar in this is so poor that I can't understand it. So I'm with the above commenter.

 

But we just spent three pages talking about how the backlog is growing. Genuinely not trying to be a downer here but, no, it is impossible for the I-129F processing time to be reduced to 6 months by September 2023. 

 

Unless something changes, the time will continue to grow. Not be reduced. And we have ben given zero indications of change. At the current rate, the backlog grows by about ~1/3 of a month per month. Given that there are about 10 months left in this fiscal year, we can expect the processing time to increase by another ~3.3 months by the end of the fiscal year. So, 18 months by September 2023. There are some people on here in other forums who are expecting it to reach nearly 22 months by the end of the fiscal year. Again, this is all if the processing speed does not increase. We saw the processing speed almost double with the new hires. But, those new hires are already onboarded and working and we are still seeing the backlog increase (just not as quickly). As far as I can tell, there hasn't been another large sum of money given to USCIS for even more employees. The money and hiring was a FY2022 project, so it's done. It looks like hiring is nearly complete, so the improvement is as good as it's going to get. (If anyone wants to fact check this or add anything please do!) They expected these new hires to help reduce the backlog, which is why they released those lofty goals, but that didn't happen.

 

Keep writing letters and try to get someone's attention. USCIS needs money and bodies to process cases. The best thing we can do is campaign for premium processing for family visas. 

I saw a video in October, and they were at 86% of capacity and trying to reach 95% before end of December, because the hiring process is so slow. I agree that, unless a miracle happens, they will not reach the 6 month target. But not all people are on board yet, and they are still training some, so they may at least get to a break even point, or perhaps get back to 10 to 12 months by the end of FY23. 6 months would be really surprising though. 

[AndiB 677]

1 hour ago, FilledesEtoiles said:

I saw a video in October, and they were at 86% of capacity and trying to reach 95% before end of December, because the hiring process is so slow. I agree that, unless a miracle happens, they will not reach the 6 month target. But not all people are on board yet, and they are still training some, so they may at least get to a break even point, or perhaps get back to 10 to 12 months by the end of FY23. 6 months would be really surprising though. 

I was hoping it was something like this. They def had a bunch of new staff it seems but logically I would expect them to have more coming on board over time as they obv haven't got enough yet. And yh it's a slow process cause government + security. I hope we'll have a decent picture by march as there's a lot of holidays coming up 

I agree it'll most likely be a breakeven pt or 12months. 6 months would be a shock. The backlog is just too large

[Anna Hessler 119]

9 hours ago, FilledesEtoiles said:

I saw a video in October, and they were at 86% of capacity and trying to reach 95% before end of December, because the hiring process is so slow. I agree that, unless a miracle happens, they will not reach the 6 month target. But not all people are on board yet, and they are still training some, so they may at least get to a break even point, or perhaps get back to 10 to 12 months by the end of FY23. 6 months would be really surprising though. 

Awesome! Thank you very much for that information! 

[Daniel17 4]

On 11/4/2022 at 2:59 AM, Lynxyonok said:

I'm shocked they got Congress to agree that $535 is a fair price for 40 minutes of work.

 

Even lawyers charge less. 😅

 

40 minutes of work... Done in 15 months

[GinoNiña 182]

one of the mods threatened  to ban me for posting videos like this. be careful. I was just like you, sharing information to others.

[rich rich 10]

 I doubt they did much hiring in FY23, government narrowly avoided a shutdown an is on CR.  Nobody knows how much will be given to USCIS in the omnibus.

Edited December 17, 2022 by rich rich

[Crazy Cat 41,311]

Part of USCIS is user fee-funded.  A former administration tried to raise fees which would have resulted in more hiring.  But some judge blocked it.

Edited December 17, 2022 by Crazy Cat

[rich rich 10]

A bit off topic, but government funding constraints really should play no part in hiring for USCIS.  How much money do they waste on stupid things?  DoD can't even pass an audit?  Even Enron, Worldcom, Lehman passed their audits.  USCIS literally is in the business of creating new taxpayers. 

[Lynxyonok 316]

2 hours ago, rich rich said:

A bit off topic, but government funding constraints really should play no part in hiring for USCIS.  How much money do they waste on stupid things?  DoD can't even pass an audit?  Even Enron, Worldcom, Lehman passed their audits.  USCIS literally is in the business of creating new taxpayers. 

To pay taxes, one has to have emigrated legally. Legal immigration is down from 2019, illegal is up. However, USCIS still has to tend to both.