Cspa

[Kerala 3]

Hi guys hope you're doing well! 

I have a question my grandmother filed for me my  dad and little sister the was 14th December 2014 our petition was approved on 26th may 2020 but am currently 20 years old and am turning 21 next month my question is when our priority becomes current will I be eligible for cspa? And will my age be enough to get my greencard? It's been really bothering me...Thank you!!

[SusieQQQ 11,586]

No one can say with any certainty when your petition will be current. You have about 5 years 5 months (depending on your exact birthday) of protection under CSPA. This means that the petition will need to be current before you turn 26 years 5 months (again exact birthday will make this more exact) for you to be protected under CSPA.

[Kerala 3]

1 minute ago, SusieQQQ said:

No one can say with any certainty when your petition will be current. You have about 5 years 5 months (depending on your exact birthday) of protection under CSPA. This means that the petition will need to be current before you turn 26 years 5 months (again exact birthday will make this more exact) for you to be protected under CSPA.

Thank you for the quick reply! And that's all I needed Thank you!

[Kerala 3]

4 minutes ago, SusieQQQ said:

No one can say with any certainty when your petition will be current. You have about 5 years 5 months (depending on your exact birthday) of protection under CSPA. This means that the petition will need to be current before you turn 26 years 5 months (again exact birthday will make this more exact) for you to be protected under CSPA.

Also forgot to say my birthday is 26 November 2001

[jan22 3,049]

While there is no way to say for certain whether you will remain eligible when your priority date (14 Dec 2014) becomes current -- and I don't want to say it's impossible -- realistically it is unlikely that your priority date will be current with the next 5 1/2 years, so you probably will age out and not be eligible with your family. 

 

The current priority date is only at 15 Dec 2007 -- seven years before yours.  It would have to advance more than a year almost every year for it to be current before you age out -- that is highly unlikely to happen.  It rarely advances more than a year, if that.  Taking a look at where the priority date was in November of the past 12 years:

• Nov 2010:    1 Jan 2002
• Nov 2011:  15 Jun 2000  --  regressed approx. 18 months
• Nov 2012:   22 Mar 2001 -- advanced approx. 9 months
• Nov 2013:   22 Aug 2001 -- advanced approx. 5 months
• Nov 2014:     8 Feb 2002 --  advanced approx. 6 months
• Nov 2015:     1 Mar 2003 -- advanced approx. 13 months
• Nov 2016:     1 Dec 2003 -- advanced approx. 9 months
• Nov 2017:  22 May 2004 -- advanced approx. 5 months
• Nov 2018:     1 Jun 2005 -- advanced approx. 13 months
• Nov 2019:     1 Jan 2007 -- advanced approx. 18 months
• Nov 2020:   22 Sep 2006 -- regressed approx. 4 months
• Nov 2021:   22 Mar 2007 -- advanced approx. 6 months
• Nov 2022:   15 Dec 2007 -- advanced approx. 9 months.

This shows an average advancement of priority date of about 6 months per year.  The past 5 years averaged about an 8 1/2 month advancement of tbe priority date per year.  Given the numerical limits of the category and the increasing number of petitions filed each year, it is unlikely the average priority date advancement (6-9 montbs a year) will increase much in the next 5 or 6 years.  If it does, it still likely won't advance as much as you need it to.  I'm not saying this to be discouraging, rude or mean -- I'm just trying to show you the possibilities so you can make life choices and decisions based on the most complete information available.

 

 

 

 

Edited October 23, 2022 by jan22

[SusieQQQ 11,586]

@jan22 great analysis, except that you must have looked at table B in the latest VB because it is in fact still stuck at 22 March 2007 where it’s been all year. So there has literally been zero advancement. This is because of all the covid issues, first the embassies closing, then the trump ban on various categories including this one, then the priority given to other categories when embassies reopened, all contributing to massive backlogs in especially F3 and F4. Although the priority tier ranking is no longer in place, there is clearly still such a backlog - and with many embassies are still not operating at full capacity (they are getting a total of about half the immigrant visas done per month at present than pre-covid) - that they are not yet able to move PDs forward because they’re still clearing the existing queue.

[Kerala 3]

13 minutes ago, jan22 said:

While there is no way to say for certain whether you will remain eligible when your priority date (14 Dec 2014) becomes current -- and I don't want to say it's impossible -- realistically it is unlikely that your priority date will be current with the next 5 1/2 years, so you probably will age out and not be eligible with your family. 

 

The current priority date is only at 15 Dec 2007 -- seven years before yours.  It would have to advance more than a year almost every year for it to be current before you age out -- that is highly unlikely to happen.  It rarely advances more than a year, if that.  Taking a look at where the priority date was in November of the past 12 years:

• Nov 2010:    1 Jan 2002
• Nov 2011:  15 Jun 2000  --  regressed approx. 18 months
• Nov 2012:   22 Mar 2001 -- advanced approx. 9 months
• Nov 2013:   22 Aug 2001 -- advanced approx. 5 months
• Nov 2014:     8 Feb 2002 --  advanced approx. 6 months
• Nov 2015:     1 Mar 2003 -- advanced approx. 13 months
• Nov 2016:     1 Dec 2003 -- advanced approx. 9 months
• Nov 2017:  22 May 2004 -- advanced approx. 5 months
• Nov 2018:     1 Jun 2005 -- advanced approx. 13 months
• Nov 2019:     1 Jan 2007 -- advanced approx. 18 months
• Nov 2020:   22 Sep 2006 -- regressed approx. 4 months
• Nov 2021:   22 Mar 2007 -- advanced approx. 6 months
• Nov 2022:   15 Dec 2007 -- advanced approx. 9 months.

This shows an average advancement of priority date of about 6 months per year.  The past 5 years averaged about an 8 1/2 month advancement of tbe priority date per year.  Given the numerical limits of the category and the increasing number of petitions filed each year, it is unlikely the average priority date advancement (6-9 montbs a year) will increase much in the next 5 or 6 years.  If it does, it still likely won't advance as much as you need it to.  I'm not saying this to be discouraging, rude or mean -- I'm just trying to show you the possibilities so you can make life choices and decisions based on the most complete information available.

 

 

 

 

Am confused because on the visa bulletin it's saying that the current priority date is 1st December 2014 though 

[SusieQQQ 11,586]

1 minute ago, Kerala said:

Am confused because on the visa bulletin it's saying that the current priority date is 1st December 2014 though 

Is your dad not married? I think both jan22 and I assumed he was. 

[Kerala 3]

1 minute ago, SusieQQQ said:

Is your dad not married? I think both jan22 and I assumed he was. 

Ohh no he's not and his mom (the one the filed for us ) is a us citizen 

[SusieQQQ 11,586]

Ok, that definitely changes things, so he’s F1. Well as it turns out F1 too has been stuck at the same date for at least the past year, however there’s only two weeks movement needed for you to get current if it’s F1 and one has to assume that will happen sometime in the next 5 years at least! So you should be ok. 

[Kerala 3]

1 minute ago, SusieQQQ said:

Ok, that definitely changes things, so he’s F1. Well as it turns out F1 too has been stuck at the same date for at least the past year, however there’s only two weeks movement needed for you to get current if it’s F1 and one has to assume that will happen sometime in the next 5 years at least! So you should be ok. 

Oh thank God I got scared lol thank you guys so much 💖 much appreciated 😊

[jan22 3,049]

So sorry for giving you a heart attack!  Please ignore everything I said -- I mis-read your post and obviously had you under the wrong visa category!

[Kerala 3]

9 minutes ago, jan22 said:

So sorry for giving you a heart attack!  Please ignore everything I said -- I mis-read your post and obviously had you under the wrong visa category!

No it's okay 🤣 you were trying to help and I appreciate that thank you!

[TBoneTX 45,250]

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