NOA1 to NOA2 timeline?

[GinoNiña 182]

Hello VJ, fast forward to 3:35. she is saying from  noa1 to noa2 is 4 to 6 months.

In your website, it says 5 to 7 months. which is the most current?

From noa1 to noa2 is the most tedious timeline. With the exemptions of rfeś, after noa2 its all downhill correct? 

 

My noa1 is approaching 6 months  old , what should I do at this point? 

 

[Lil bear 4,106]

15 minutes ago, GinoNiña said:

Hello VJ, fast forward to 3:35. she is saying from  noa1 to noa2 is 4 to 6 months.

In your website, it says 5 to 7 months. which is the most current?

From noa1 to noa2 is the most tedious timeline. With the exemptions of rfeś, after noa2 its all downhill correct? 

 

My noa1 is approaching 6 months  old , what should I do at this point? 

 

Both are estimates. Neither are necessarily going to be your experience. Check the official USCIS case processing webpage for their estimation  for your processing office and your form (I129f).  If, according to the information on that site, you are outside the listed normal processing time, submit a service request. At 6 months, I doubt you are 

[Crazy Cat 41,431]

19 minutes ago, GinoNiña said:

My noa1 is approaching 6 months  old , what should I do at this point? 

Just keep waiting.  Some people have been waiting a lot longer than either. 

[Nuba 57]

Nov 2021 filer here. I am a data dude who follows the data posted on VJ pretty closely.  The USCIS current estimate for I129F is  that 80% of cases are completed in13.5 months. Actual data posted by members and from USCIS site scans show they are processing cases from ~ 14 months ago. I am expecting to be processed in Jan 2023.

 

Our best hope is that once the new federal fiscal year starts on Oct 1, some of the resources that were focused on completing visa categories that have a yearly quota will be shifted to fiancé and spousal visas.  I'm not holding my breath.

[Lynxyonok 316]

3 hours ago, Nuba said:

Nov 2021 filer here. I am a data dude who follows the data posted on VJ pretty closely.  The USCIS current estimate for I129F is  that 80% of cases are completed in13.5 months. Actual data posted by members and from USCIS site scans show they are processing cases from ~ 14 months ago. I am expecting to be processed in Jan 2023.

 

Our best hope is that once the new federal fiscal year starts on Oct 1, some of the resources that were focused on completing visa categories that have a yearly quota will be shifted to fiancé and spousal visas.  I'm not holding my breath.

I so wish that was the case, but please read the following, found on https://www.uscis.gov/green-card/green-card-processes-and-procedures/fiscal-year-2023-employment-based-adjustment-of-status-faqs :

 

"The Department of State (DOS) has determined that the FY 2022 employment-based annual limit is 281,507 – more than double the typical annual total – due to unused family-based visa numbers from FY 2021 being allocated to the next fiscal year’s available employment-based visas."

 

I'm reading this as:

 

- We didn't issue enough K-1s (and like)

- So, we're going to work on issuing more employment visas instead

 

I'm going to stop talking for a moment before I really share what's on my mind.

[Chancy 6,239]

37 minutes ago, Lynxyonok said:

I'm reading this as:

 

- We didn't issue enough K-1s (and like)

 

You're reading it wrong.  There is no quota for K1 or CR1/IR1 visa categories.  So that tidbit about re-allocation of family-based visa numbers did not and will not reduce the number of K1 visas issued.  Those family-based visas refer to "family-preference" categories (F1, F2A/B, F3, F4) which all have annual limits.  DOS did not issue as many of those family-preference visas because (1) their issuance was banned in 2020 to early 2021, and (2) when the ban was lifted in April 2021, DOS prioritized the processing of CR1/IR1/K1 visas over family-preference visas.

 

[Lynxyonok 316]

3 minutes ago, Chancy said:

 

You're reading it wrong.  There is no quota for K1 or CR1/IR1 visa categories.  So that tidbit about re-allocation of family-based visa numbers did not and will not reduce the number of K1 visas issued.  Those family-based visas refer to "family-preference" categories (F1, F2A/B, F3, F4) which all have annual limits.  DOS did not issue as many of those family-preference visas because (1) their issuance was banned in 2020 to early 2021, and (2) when the ban was lifted in April 2021, DOS prioritized the processing of CR1/IR1/K1 visas over family-preference visas.

 

 

Thank you for clarification.

 

Here's what I'm still puzzled about though:

 

- K1 backlog is growing

- But more employment visas are planned for a country that's already in recession

 

This doesn't add up to me. However, I'm open to being corrected.

[Chancy 6,239]

6 minutes ago, Lynxyonok said:

- But more employment visas are planned for a country that's already in recession

 

Seems you have the wrong idea about employment-based immigrant visas.  EB visa categories are for people who are investors (ie. entrepreneurs with plans to invest around a million dollars or more in the US), internationally-recognized experts in their field, or people with credentials in high demand like medical professionals and other STEM-related fields.  EB immigrant visas are not issued to minimum wage workers.

 

[Nikobe 129]

19 minutes ago, Chancy said:

 

Seems you have the wrong idea about employment-based immigrant visas.  EB visa categories are for people who are investors (ie. entrepreneurs with plans to invest around a million dollars or more in the US), internationally-recognized experts in their field, or people with credentials in high demand like medical professionals and other STEM-related fields.  EB immigrant visas are not issued to minimum wage workers.

 

Also, FY22 ends in September. So basically, the update also reads as they have been able to process more EB visas than usual because of low FB visas for which the USCIS has quotas in place (non-compliance with the quotas would increase scrutiny over the work of USCIS). 

 

For now, the only reliable (does not mean they will achieve it) goal is the 6 months target for end of FY23 (September 23). I would hope for an uptick in processing at the beginning of the new fiscal year (October). This will probably not help any late 21 filers though.

[GinoNiña 182]

anyone know why August NIV issuancess  has not been put out yet?

[SteveInBostonI130 3,381]

9 hours ago, GinoNiña said:

Hello VJ, fast forward to 3:35. she is saying from  noa1 to noa2 is 4 to 6 months.

In your website, it says 5 to 7 months. which is the most current?

From noa1 to noa2 is the most tedious timeline. With the exemptions of rfeś, after noa2 its all downhill correct? 

 

My noa1 is approaching 6 months  old , what should I do at this point? 

 

 

I happened to look at VJ timelines for Philippines K1 the other day.  For the last 10 ppl who got their K1 visas, NOA1 to NOA2 took 6 to 13 months, with an average of 9.5 months.

 

The "tedious" time was the wait for an interview after NOA1.  Average wait was about 330 days.

Edited September 23, 2022 by SteveInBostonI130

[SalishSea 17,603]

7 hours ago, Lynxyonok said:

I so wish that was the case, but please read the following, found on https://www.uscis.gov/green-card/green-card-processes-and-procedures/fiscal-year-2023-employment-based-adjustment-of-status-faqs :

 

"The Department of State (DOS) has determined that the FY 2022 employment-based annual limit is 281,507 – more than double the typical annual total – due to unused family-based visa numbers from FY 2021 being allocated to the next fiscal year’s available employment-based visas."

 

I'm reading this as:

 

- We didn't issue enough K-1s (and like)

- So, we're going to work on issuing more employment visas instead

 

I'm going to stop talking for a moment before I really share what's on my mind.

No.  There are not numerical limits to K or CR/IR visas.