We just applied for K-1, are we really looking at 26 months?

[KSVJ 216]

FYI since I’m on the mailing list I got an email the other day about a video posted on this topic. I haven’t watched it but hopefully you’ll get some answers!

 

We invite you to listen in on a conversation between U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services (USCIS) Director Ur Jaddou and Citizenship and Immigration Services (CIS) Ombudsman Phyllis Coven that we recorded on Sept. 21.

In this prerecorded, hour-long discussion, USCIS Director Jaddou and CIS Ombudsman Coven discuss challenges and accomplishments from fiscal year 2022 and look ahead to FY 2023. The conversation covers a wide range of topics.

USCIS addressed the following issues:

• Processing times;
• Backlog reduction efforts;
• Customer service; and
• Funding and congressional appropriations.

Similarly, the CIS Ombudsman highlighted the following:

• 2022 Annual Report to Congress;
• Recommendations on USCIS’ fee-for-service funding model; and
• Types of assistance that the office provides to the public.

To watch the recording, please visit https://youtu.be/Z439ttVjmho. 

[fenerbahce1907 496]

31 minutes ago, KSVJ said:

FYI since I’m on the mailing list I got an email the other day about a video posted on this topic. I haven’t watched it but hopefully you’ll get some answers!

 

We invite you to listen in on a conversation between U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services (USCIS) Director Ur Jaddou and Citizenship and Immigration Services (CIS) Ombudsman Phyllis Coven that we recorded on Sept. 21.

In this prerecorded, hour-long discussion, USCIS Director Jaddou and CIS Ombudsman Coven discuss challenges and accomplishments from fiscal year 2022 and look ahead to FY 2023. The conversation covers a wide range of topics.

USCIS addressed the following issues:

• Processing times;
• Backlog reduction efforts;
• Customer service; and
• Funding and congressional appropriations.

Similarly, the CIS Ombudsman highlighted the following:

• 2022 Annual Report to Congress;
• Recommendations on USCIS’ fee-for-service funding model; and
• Types of assistance that the office provides to the public.

To watch the recording, please visit https://youtu.be/Z439ttVjmho. 

 I watched the video and they didn't mention anything about k1 or anything similar. 

[Chancy 6,241]

On 9/29/2022 at 2:23 PM, Crazy Cat said:

They denied 38%???  Wow.

 

Remember that I-129F is also used for K3 spouse.  The USCIS report does not differentiate between I-129F for fiance and for spouse, so we can only speculate that many of those denials are for the K3 spouse petitions, which are almost always denied.

 

[Nikobe 129]

On 9/30/2022 at 11:31 AM, Nikobe said:

Based on 50,103 pending applications and assuming a constant rate of applications and processing, it takes the USCIS 6.9 quarters --> 20.8 months --> ~624 days to work through the pending applications if somebody is interested in this little number.

Spike to 8000 cases processed (daily 125) --> 6.3 quarters

Spike to 10000 cases processed (daily 157) --> 5 quarters

Spike to 15000 cases processed (daily 234) --> 3.3 quarters

 

The USCIS numbers are usually lower than the above as it is reported for median processing times for 80% of cases (that also makes sense because some cases are naturally/legally more complex).

 

Monday being the strongest day (alongside Friday) according to our fellow case trackers had 97 approvals in July 21 filers, 17 for June, 5 for May ==> 119 approvals. Considering that there is roughly 5% "easy" denials of new filers based on my 500 group (failure to comply with the simple regulations like paying etc.) => 200 cases per month, 7 per day, we can raise the number to 126 processed cases (+ X unknown cases from other months processed based on expedites/randoms) on the strongest day of the week (benchmark for what USCIS is currently capable of with the allocated workforce for I129F).

 

Therefore, it is fair to say that the USCIS is at 130 cases per day capability as per September --> ~6 quarters for 100% of the cases processed --> 5 quarters for 80%, which in turn is roughly 15 months. USCIS needs to get to Monday levels consistently in order to achieve this, however.

 

There is hope in the valley of the hopelessness.

192 approvals in June, July and August on the first day of the fiscal year in which they want to achieve the 6 months target.

 

I guess they will crush that hope with horrendous Tuesday numbers. 😄

[Genzo10 16]

On 10/1/2022 at 3:04 AM, Chancy said:

 

Remember that I-129F is also used for K3 spouse.  The USCIS report does not differentiate between I-129F for fiance and for spouse, so we can only speculate that many of those denials are for the K3 spouse petitions, which are almost always denied.

 

 

Why do they deny K3 spouse?

 

Thank you

[Melissa and Keith 4]

Everyone's situation is different. For us:

 

K-1 Visa received by USCIS in Jan 2021.

Approved in Aug 2021.

My now husband's interview at the consulate in London in Nov 2021.

He moved here in Feb 2021, and we got married then.

We sent the AOS paperwork along with his work authorization request in May 2022.

He had his fingerprints taken in July 2022.

He got his work authorization in Sep 2022.

AOS approved on Sep 30, 2022 without any RFE or an interview.

NOA for the approval came in the mail Oct 4, 2022, and he should have his green card within three weeks.

[Osuporu morenike 0]

6 hours ago, Pranav469 said:

Alright guys, it mail week and I’m praying everyone, along with myself, get some good news! It’s been 67 days since NOA2 for me so I am getting very anxious myself!

 

[Lynxyonok 316]

On 9/30/2022 at 9:04 PM, Chancy said:

 

Remember that I-129F is also used for K3 spouse.  The USCIS report does not differentiate between I-129F for fiance and for spouse, so we can only speculate that many of those denials are for the K3 spouse petitions, which are almost always denied.

 

Thank you. We're counting both approvals and denials among processed cases... 

[Nikobe 129]

 

I assume that most of you have seen it but the same guy is still posting updates on the data extrapolation. With current processing, he now gets to 20 months maximum processing for current filers. I refrain from using the word "predict" as he also points out: USCIS will likely come closer to what they suggested as cycle times in March 2022.

 

 

Edited October 11, 2022 by Nikobe