We just applied for K-1, are we really looking at 26 months?

[GinoNiña 182]

6 hours ago, FilledesEtoiles said:

I'm curious to see their last stats, they haven't published anything since March. 

On the positive side, they have been training people, they are receiving more budget and are about to start a new fiscal year.

I'm actually more concerned about the stage after the uscis approval, because many embassies are still really backlogged, so even if uscis improve their stats, which I think they will in the end, the embassy stage may take some time, depending on the embassy. 

These are the reasons why there is huge backlog, like  a snowball effect. Backlogs from uscis, nvc, local embassy, etc...

Anything they tell us well take it with a grain of salt. This is same tactic pilots tell us when theres a delay, they try to sugarcoat it so passengers dont get frustrated even more. 

If  I were to ask uscis about something, I want them to add noa1 issued in their stats as well. this information will give us better projection about our waiting times.  

 

[FilledesEtoiles 336]

1 hour ago, GinoNiña said:

These are the reasons why there is huge backlog, like  a snowball effect. Backlogs from uscis, nvc, local embassy, etc...

Anything they tell us well take it with a grain of salt. This is same tactic pilots tell us when theres a delay, they try to sugarcoat it so passengers dont get frustrated even more. 

If  I were to ask uscis about something, I want them to add noa1 issued in their stats as well. this information will give us better projection about our waiting times.  

 

If you want my honest opinion, I think that the whole process is medieval, and I try to keep calm!  lol

[Sut 4]

On 9/12/2022 at 6:36 AM, Kai&Mac said:

Unfortunately not all of us can get married very easily. Not every situation is the same.
Also how is the backlog in Tokyo?

Right!! It can take 4 months to get married in Algeria so K1 is the best option for us. I can't be in Algeria for months while they conduct their "investigation" 

[Crazy Cat 41,851]

9 minutes ago, Sasha Uneek said:

Right!! It can take 4 months to get married in Algeria so K1 is the best option for us. I can't be in Algeria for months while they conduct their "investigation" 

Utah Zoom marriage is much, much, much faster.  It is a legal marriage recognized by USCIS after consummation.

[Crazy Cat 41,851]

On 9/15/2022 at 10:24 AM, FilledesEtoiles said:

I think that the whole process is medieval

Our opinions about the process are irrelevant.  

[Sut 4]

15 minutes ago, Crazy Cat said:

Our opinions about the process are irrelevant.  

 

16 minutes ago, Crazy Cat said:

Utah Zoom marriage is much, much, much faster.  It is a legal marriage recognized by USCIS after consummation.

Ahhh I'm already 4 months in and not stressed about the wait to me it gives me time to save more money, make more progress on my house, plan an small wedding.....but the benefits of CR1 would be more fitting for my fiance but ultimately this is the route we chose. Thanks for all of your insight crazy cat!

[Kai&Mac 11]

We will look at getting my fiancé enrolled in school or some cool program while waiting for work authorization. There are plenty of options like that, so therefore I would never consider forfeiting our k1 application, getting married via Utah which would take the next month or two, and THEN we would have to meet again in-person which could take easily another 3-5 months, then prepare the application and apply for the spousal visa, another 1 month... Like hell no XD

Although if you are just starting your process for meeting in-person and so-on, then yes I am sure the Utah zoom marriage route is a good thing to consider. I just can't justify switching from K1 to CR-1 considering the time it adds. K1 is not that bad. As far as the wait goes, I will be trying to visit my fiancé at least 3 times over the next 13 months, and hopefully I can make it to Japan for her interview as well.

[Ontarkie 14,222]

~~Hijack post removed along with reply. Please start your own thread if you have questions about your own case.!!

[Lynxyonok 316]

On 9/12/2022 at 3:11 AM, Kai&Mac said:

We just applied for the K-1 Visa and our petition was sent to the California service center. The following video demonstrates a possible 26 month wait time for applications that are being sent right about now. The argument made in the video is that since more applications are coming in than are being processed, that the current "13.5 month" wait time for just USCIS processing is  only for applications that were sent 13.5 months ago. As a forecast, considering the current ratio of applications-in vs. applications-out, this is saying that it would be another 26 months or so for anyone applying now. Does this argument make sense?

 

By the way, that YouTuber has another video out.

 

The channel is https://www.youtube.com/channel/UC-j8oeknNu89pFRZLEWSwwQ

 

The new data analysis is not exactly a cause for celebration, but it's at least something.

Persist. You will both prevail and be happy.

[FilledesEtoiles 336]

On 9/16/2022 at 5:20 AM, Nickm1002 said:

 

 

7 hours ago, Lynxyonok said:

 

By the way, that YouTuber has another video out.

 

The channel is https://www.youtube.com/channel/UC-j8oeknNu89pFRZLEWSwwQ

 

The new data analysis is not exactly a cause for celebration, but it's at least something.

Persist. You will both prevail and be happy.

I do not believe his view is accurate, and it is very pessimistic

Unless you have access to their internal stats and know about their internal structure, it remains just an opinion.

[Lynxyonok 316]

8 hours ago, FilledesEtoiles said:

 

I do not believe his view is accurate, and it is very pessimistic

Unless you have access to their internal stats and know about their internal structure, it remains just an opinion.

Good point, all I have access to is cases status page at USCIS and updated estimates at Visa Journey mail updates.

 

Here's what I do know for a fact:

 

- 3,601 I-129F cases are still outstanding for April 2022 (lowest, 229006xxxx, highest 229008xxxx - they aren't always truly sequential though)

 

Here's what's estimated based on K-1 progress reports forum on this site:

 

- About 1,880 cases are touched each month; touched means they may still end up with an RFE, and 1 in 5 do

 

Here's what I'm getting from VJ by mail:

 

- Every week my estimated approval is falling back 2 days

 

 

 

[Crazy Cat 41,851]

From the latest official USCIS quarterly stats I can find show they are processing only about half the number of I-129fs they are receiving.  

 

[GinoNiña 182]

3 hours ago, Crazy Cat said:

From the latest official USCIS quarterly stats I can find show they are processing only about half the number of I-129fs they are receiving.  

 

Processing time is getting shorter. It was 13.5 six months ago. 

[Lynxyonok 316]

57 minutes ago, GinoNiña said:

Processing time is getting shorter. It was 13.5 six months ago. 

I respectfully disagree. I'm looking at over 15 months currently based on weekly VJ mail updates. And that's growing weekly.

[GinoNiña 182]

50 minutes ago, Lynxyonok said:

I respectfully disagree. I'm looking at over 15 months currently based on weekly VJ mail updates. And that's growing weekly.

Go to uscis web for accuracy. VJ is getting their info courtesy from its members. Some members neglects to update their bio.