We just applied for K-1, are we really looking at 26 months?

[Nikobe 129]

1 minute ago, Kai&Mac said:

Ya the video just talks about getting NOA2, essentially do you think anything will happen in 2022 or 2023 to ease the insane backlog at USCIS for Spousal and Fiancé visas?

Thank you for your reply! I think I was the one panicking.

I know that you were. I addressed those who confirmed the 26 months to you - that’s bonkers and makes you panic more! They will address the backlog following closing of targets for EB-visas, which they have as recent as last week (for all categories). I hope an uptick in closed cases in October or November, but I would not be surprised by a constant backlog until end of next year!

[Nikobe 129]

6 minutes ago, Kai&Mac said:

Ya the video just talks about getting NOA2, essentially do you think anything will happen in 2022 or 2023 to ease the insane backlog at USCIS for Spousal and Fiancé visas?
 

Thank you for your reply! I think I was more or less the one panicking when I clicked on that video. By their logic the wait times could go on indefinitely until it takes 10 years to get approved. Maybe they are just using bad math? Still though, More applications being received vs. applications being sent out is a problem that could only really cause things to worsen.

The guy who did this surely achieved what’s most important on Youtube - clicks. Linear extrapolation of trends is easy in non-dynamic subjects - not so much for the processing times of the Uscis, which is heavily dependent on funding etc. It is very easy statistics (also eliminating essential sample points (filers before May21)) that has nothing to do with reality fortunately. Unfortunately at the same time, it does neither help nor hurt. 🙈 We are in the hands of the uscis.

[MichaelJMatlock 0]

 don't think it is possible it would be so long, i'm reading the timeline of members who got approved currently and it didn't not change since the average time is 13.5 months. I remember it's become 13.5 months in march 2022 and it's still not changed. And the goal of USCIS is to increase the time of processing I-129 to 6 months before by the end of 2023. I think the time will begin decrease in march 2023 or little before.

[Bob911 0]

43 minutes ago, Nikobe said:

It is fine to be frustrated about the process, however, it is not fine to spread out panic to those who have just filed. Please be realistic. The USCIS will not let this thing to slide up to 26 months processing unless there is another pandemic I have not yet heard of. They have recently picked up speed on touched case, expect the same to happen with closed cases.

 

Keep your calm and calculate with at end of next year. If the USCIS does not meet any of their cycle goals by FY23 (next Sep), Congress will hold them accountable.

 

At least there seems to be a plan and effort to improve processing times... hopefully they can turn it around soon.

USCIS Processing time reduction

 

 

Edited September 12, 2022 by Bob911
Link

[bobjennyhitched 99]

10 hours ago, powerpuff said:

This is exactly why we advocate for applying for spousal instead - virtually same processing time, much more superior visa.

Yes ours took 26 months from start to finish for the spouse visa, upside I qualified for the IR1 rather than CR1 due to being married over two years at the point of approval. I was approved March 2020.

 

For those not familiar with the spouse process, IR1 is a 10 year visa and CR1 is 2 years.

[powerpuff 6,697]

3 minutes ago, bobjennyhitched said:

Yes ours took 26 months from start to finish for the spouse visa, upside I qualified for the IR1 rather than CR1 due to being married over two years at the point of approval. I was approved March 2020.

 

For those not familiar with the spouse process, IR1 is a 10 year visa and CR1 is 2 years.

Yes, I thought what was meant here was 26 months from start to finish, not just the petition stage. Lucky you, you don’t have to deal with removal of conditions, that’s a big headache, congrats! 

Edited September 12, 2022 by powerpuff

[Chancy 6,241]

18 minutes ago, bobjennyhitched said:

For those not familiar with the spouse process, IR1 is a 10 year visa and CR1 is 2 years.

 

Both IR1 and CR1 visas are valid for only 6 months maximum.  Upon US entry, a spouse visa holder will get admitted either on IR1 or CR1 immigration status.  IR1 status gets a 10-year green card, while CR1 status gets a 2-year GC.  It is entirely possible for a CR1 visa holder to be admitted on IR1 status and get a 10-year GC by entering the US with their valid CR1 visa after their 2nd wedding anniversary.

 

Edited September 12, 2022 by Chancy
clarification

[SaraClaire11 136]

I was obsessed with YouTube visa videos until I found Visa Journey. Much more accurate information posted here by those actually going through the process. However I did find videos of lawyer updates and couples getting a K1 through my specific consulate most helpful.

 

When I applied a year ago I was expecting it to take 18 months from start to finish (the moment I mailed the petition to the moment he arrives in US) October 1 will be 13 months. Hopefully that time will decrease from here. It also depends on the backlog at the Embassy. Some countries take longer than others. Good luck!

[Lynxyonok 316]

14 hours ago, Kai&Mac said:

We just applied for the K-1 Visa and our petition was sent to the California service center. The following video demonstrates a possible 26 month wait time for applications that are being sent right about now. The argument made in the video is that since more applications are coming in than are being processed, that the current "13.5 month" wait time for just USCIS processing is  only for applications that were sent 13.5 months ago. As a forecast, considering the current ratio of applications-in vs. applications-out, this is saying that it would be another 26 months or so for anyone applying now. Does this argument make sense?

 

A lot of great points had been brought up already, I'm just going to be so bold as to tie them together in one picture.

 

Yes, a 26-month wait time is entirely possible. I believe we're facing a situation where USCIS is attempting to increase their funding stream significantly, even tripling it if they can. Their excuse, per the latest public Zoom call, is lack of staff and lack of income. There are some categories of visas they have to approve, e.g., employment ones. There are other categories they have to prioritize based on push from the White House, e.g., refugee ones. By my count, USCIS is currently falling behind 2 days in processing speed of I-129F applications every week.

 

No, this is not a cause to panic. Frankly, if it's true love, then it's going to wait. Yes, at great cost, and with even greater returns.

 

Yes, USCIS has promised some improvements. But do read behind the lines: it's for categories other than I-129F, and it's only due to mature over a year from now.

 

No, this is not a reason to give up. You miss 100% of shots you don't take. There was a reason why you started the process: stick with it.

 

Yes, there is an option to be married online in Utah. My only suggestion is to research the bejesus out of it prior to jumping into the process.

 

No, once again, do not falter or doubt. There had to be a good reason for why the both of you said "I do" in your minds and went ahead with this. Start planning your future lives. Start making life choices now that will bear fruit in time for your partner's arrival. Start looking for friends and support groups for them. Prepare to see life through their eyes. E.g., if they don't drive, be prepared to move to a neighborhood with great public transportation. If they are very family- and relative-oriented, be prepared to move to a neighborhood where people like them are prevalent.

 

Never let go of hope.

 

A rat that believes it will be saved will stay afloat in water for 60 hours.

A rat.

 

You're so much more than that.

 

It took Odysseus 20 years to make it home.

 

And he did.

 

It took 50 years for the hero from 2010 movie "The Way Back" (I strongly recommend watching it, by the way).

 

And he did.

[mc962 55]

2 hours ago, Kai&Mac said:

I plan to visit my fiancé again around March IF *Big IF* Japan finally decides to open their border and let us dangerous gaikokujin back into the country.

I thought they just opened up for tourists again at the beginning of the month? It's not entirely clear to me how strict your itinerary needs to be, but I think you can come as long as you go through a travel agency (and get a proper tourist visa instead of visa exemption).
https://www.timeout.com/tokyo/news/japans-new-covid-19-border-rules-explained-022522

Before Pandemic at least, I felt Tokyo was fairly quick/efficient. Not the quickest, but it didn't take as long as some others had taken from what I remember.

[Daisy.Chain 317]

2 hours ago, MichaelJMatlock said:

 don't think it is possible it would be so long, i'm reading the timeline of members who got approved currently and it didn't not change since the average time is 13.5 months. I remember it's become 13.5 months in march 2022 and it's still not changed. And the goal of USCIS is to increase the time of processing I-129 to 6 months before by the end of 2023. I think the time will begin decrease in march 2023 or little before.

They haven't changed the time but they are lowering the percentage of cases processed. It's now at 80% where it was higher.

 

My K1 from noa1 to noa2 was approved in 14 days back in 2014. The couple I'm close to was projected by USCIS at 8-9 months and they are nearly to 14 months without their noa2.

 

There's no need to panic but while I'd like to think 26 months was click bait, I'm not so sure. It's better to be realistic.

 

"The USCIS wouldn't let it wait that long" argument holds no water imho when you consider how long some of the family-based cases are.

[Daisy.Chain 317]

3 hours ago, Nikobe said:

The guy who did this surely achieved what’s most important on Youtube - clicks. Linear extrapolation of trends is easy in non-dynamic subjects - not so much for the processing times of the Uscis, which is heavily dependent on funding etc. It is very easy statistics (also eliminating essential sample points (filers before May21)) that has nothing to do with reality fortunately. Unfortunately at the same time, it does neither help nor hurt. 🙈 We are in the hands of the uscis.

 

While I'd like to think 26 months was click bait, I'm not so sure. It's better to be realistic. 

My K1 from noa1 to noa2 was approved in 14 days back in 2014. The couple I'm close to was projected by USCIS at 8-9 months and they are nearly to 14 months without their noa2.

 

"The USCIS wouldn't let it wait that long" argument holds no water imho when you consider how long some of the family-based cases are. No one can knows what USCIS would do

[Daisy.Chain 317]

3 hours ago, Nikobe said:

I know that you were. I addressed those who confirmed the 26 months to you - that’s bonkers and makes you panic more! They will address the backlog following closing of targets for EB-visas, which they have as recent as last week (for all categories). I hope an uptick in closed cases in October or November, but I would not be surprised by a constant backlog until end of next year!

 Not so bonkers imho.

You cannot know if they will address the backlog or not. They haven't so far..at least not in the past few years in a way that made any difference. The couple I'm close to started at "8-10 months" being predicted if I remember right and are currently nearly at 14 waiting just for noa2. Another few months on the end seems likely as petitions have only increased.

[SalishSea 17,829]

18 hours ago, Kai&Mac said:

We just applied for the K-1 Visa and our petition was sent to the California service center. The following video demonstrates a possible 26 month wait time for applications that are being sent right about now. The argument made in the video is that since more applications are coming in than are being processed, that the current "13.5 month" wait time for just USCIS processing is  only for applications that were sent 13.5 months ago. As a forecast, considering the current ratio of applications-in vs. applications-out, this is saying that it would be another 26 months or so for anyone applying now. Does this argument make sense?
 

 

Sounds about right, depending on the consulate.

 

 

[Cathi 5,748]

16 hours ago, Kai&Mac said:

My fiancé is from a country where she has to get a bunch of stupid documents to get married

This is the same for most countries.