We just applied for K-1, are we really looking at 26 months?

[Kai&Mac 11]

We just applied for the K-1 Visa and our petition was sent to the California service center. The following video demonstrates a possible 26 month wait time for applications that are being sent right about now. The argument made in the video is that since more applications are coming in than are being processed, that the current "13.5 month" wait time for just USCIS processing is  only for applications that were sent 13.5 months ago. As a forecast, considering the current ratio of applications-in vs. applications-out, this is saying that it would be another 26 months or so for anyone applying now. Does this argument make sense?
 

 

[powerpuff 6,697]

~~ Topic moved from K1 Process to Progress Reports ~~
 

18-24 months (possibly longer depending on consulate backlog) seems like an accurate estimate. But the author of the video makes a good point that it is very much possible processing times might increase which makes it closer to 26 months. Personally, I believe it.

 

This is exactly why we advocate for applying for spousal instead - virtually same processing time, much more superior visa.

 

There have been several people thinking about starting over with a spousal:

 

 

 

 

 

Edited September 12, 2022 by powerpuff

[Kai&Mac 11]

2 minutes ago, powerpuff said:

This is exactly why we advocate for applying for spousal instead - virtually same processing time, much more superior visa.

 

There have been several people thinking about starting over with a spousal:

Unfortunately not all of us can get married very easily. Not every situation is the same.
Also how is the backlog in Tokyo?

[powerpuff 6,697]

1 minute ago, Kai&Mac said:

Unfortunately not all of us can get married very easily. Not every situation is the same.
Also how is the backlog in Tokyo?

I’d say Utah zoom marriage makes it rather easy. Especially if you live together. But okay

 

I don’t think there’s a large backlog in Tokyo.

Edited September 12, 2022 by powerpuff

[Kai&Mac 11]

Just now, powerpuff said:

I’d say Utah zoom marriage makes it very easy. But okay

 

I don’t think there’s a large backlog in Tokyo.

My fiancé is from a country where she has to get a bunch of stupid documents to get married, and she lives in a country that really makes it impossible to travel back to her home country and then back to where she resides now. This was especially true for the Covid-19 pandemic. And her residence country is still not technically fully open even which has effected her ability to travel back and forth. This made the K-1 fiancé visa more viable among other reasons. Of course the CR-1 visa is better but, not as attainable to everyone else. If you can do it, do it. Don't pretend like it's just that simple for everyone.

[powerpuff 6,697]

Just now, Kai&Mac said:

My fiancé is from a country where she has to get a bunch of stupid documents to get married, and she lives in a country that really makes it impossible to travel back to her home country and then back to where she resides now. This was especially true for the Covid-19 pandemic. And her residence country is still not technically fully open even which has effected her ability to travel back and forth. This made the K-1 fiancé visa more viable among other reasons. Of course the CR-1 visa is better but, not as attainable to everyone else. If you can do it, do it. Don't pretend like it's just that simple for everyone.

Utah zoom marriage bypasses all of that. If I didn’t know what I was talking about I wouldn’t. Now, I don’t need to “pretend”. Back in 2020 Utah zoom marriage did not exist unfortunately which made us apply for K1. Good luck in your journey. I’m out

[Adventine 3,196]

14 minutes ago, Kai&Mac said:

My fiancé is from a country where she has to get a bunch of stupid documents to get married, and she lives in a country that really makes it impossible to travel back to her home country and then back to where she resides now. This was especially true for the Covid-19 pandemic. And her residence country is still not technically fully open even which has effected her ability to travel back and forth. This made the K-1 fiancé visa more viable among other reasons. Of course the CR-1 visa is better but, not as attainable to everyone else. If you can do it, do it. Don't pretend like it's just that simple for everyone.

Spend some time looking at the Utah zoom marriage threads on this site and you'll see how people have used it to easily bypass onerous paperwork.and travel restrictions. 

Edited September 12, 2022 by Adventine

[Rocio0010 5,579]

1 hour ago, Kai&Mac said:

My fiancé is from a country where she has to get a bunch of stupid documents to get married, and she lives in a country that really makes it impossible to travel back to her home country and then back to where she resides now. This was especially true for the Covid-19 pandemic. And her residence country is still not technically fully open even which has effected her ability to travel back and forth. This made the K-1 fiancé visa more viable among other reasons. Of course the CR-1 visa is better but, not as attainable to everyone else. If you can do it, do it. Don't pretend like it's just that simple for everyone.

Where is she now? Where is she from? Maybe if you told us the countries, some members from same countries could chime in and tell you what to expect/ where to get those documents.

[Crazy Cat 41,851]

 

2 hours ago, Kai&Mac said:

My fiancé is from a country where she has to get a bunch of stupid documents to get married, and she lives in a country that really makes it impossible to travel back to her home country and then back to where she resides now. This was especially true for the Covid-19 pandemic. And her residence country is still not technically fully open even which has effected her ability to travel back and forth. This made the K-1 fiancé visa more viable among other reasons. Of course the CR-1 visa is better but, not as attainable to everyone else. If you can do it, do it. Don't pretend like it's just that simple for everyone.

Every couple has their own priorities, and each couple must decide which visa is better for their situation.

K-1        
    More expensive than CR-1    
    Requires Adjustment of Status after marriage (expensive and requires a lot of paperwork)    
    Spouse can not leave the US until she/he receives approved Advance Parole (approx 6-8 months)    
    Spouse can not work until she/he receives EAD (approx 6-8 months)    
    Some people have had problems with driver licenses, Social Security cards, leases, bank account during this period    
    Spouse will not receive Green Card for many months after Adjustment of Status is filed.
    A K-1 might be a better choice when 18-21 year old children are immigrating also
    In some situations, marriage can affect certain Home country benefits, making a K-1 a better choice   
    A denied K-1 is sent back to USCIS to expire
    

CR-1
    Less expensive than K-1    
    No Adjustment of Status(I-485, I-131, I-765) required.    
    Spouse can immediately travel outside the US    
    Spouse is authorized to work immediately upon arrival.    
    Spouse receives Social Security Card and Green Card within 2 or 3 weeks after entering the US    
    Opening a bank account, getting a driver's license, etc. are very easily accomplished with GC, SS card, and passport.
    Spouse has legal permanent Resident status IMMEDIATELY upon entry to US.
   
 

[Genzo10 16]

You mean 26 months for the whole process, until the interview or just for the I-129?

 

 

 

 

[SteveInBostonI130 3,449]

1 hour ago, Genzo10 said:

You mean 26 months for the whole process, until the interview or just for the I-129?

 

 

 

 

OP meant just for the I-129F.

[Nikobe 129]

It is fine to be frustrated about the process, however, it is not fine to spread out panic to those who have just filed. Please be realistic. The USCIS will not let this thing to slide up to 26 months processing unless there is another pandemic I have not yet heard of. They have recently picked up speed on touched case, expect the same to happen with closed cases.

 

Keep your calm and calculate with at end of next year. If the USCIS does not meet any of their cycle goals by FY23 (next Sep), Congress will hold them accountable.

[Kai&Mac 11]

Ya the video just talks about getting NOA2, essentially do you think anything will happen in 2022 or 2023 to ease the insane backlog at USCIS for Spousal and Fiancé visas?
 

2 minutes ago, Nikobe said:

It is fine to be frustrated about the process, however, it is not fine to spread out panic to those who have just filed. Please be realistic. The USCIS will not let this thing to slide up to 26 months processing unless there is another pandemic I have not yet heard of. They have recently picked up speed on touched case, expect the same to happen with closed cases.

 

Keep your calm and calculate with at end of next year. If the USCIS does not meet any of their cycle goals by FY23 (next Sep), Congress will hold them accountable.

Thank you for your reply! I think I was more or less the one panicking when I clicked on that video. By their logic the wait times could go on indefinitely until it takes 10 years to get approved. Maybe they are just using bad math? Still though, More applications being received vs. applications being sent out is a problem that could only really cause things to worsen.

Edited September 12, 2022 by Kai&Mac

[Genzo10 16]

5 minutes ago, SteveInBostonI130 said:

OP meant just for the I-129F.

 

I don't think it is possible it would be so long, i'm reading the timeline of members who got approved currently and it didn't not change since the average time is 13.5 months. I remember it's become 13.5 months in march 2022 and it's still not changed. And the goal of USCIS is to increase the time of processing I-129 to 6 months before by the end of 2023. I think the time will begin decrease in march 2023 or little before.

[Kai&Mac 11]

Just now, Genzo10 said:

 

I don't think it is possible it would be so long, i'm reading the timeline of members who got approved currently and it didn't not change since the average time is 13.5 months. I remember it's become 13.5 months in march 2022 and it's still not changed. And the goal of USCIS is to increase the time of processing I-129 to 6 months before by the end of 2023. I think the time will begin decrease in march 2023 or little before.

That would be awesome. Since I plan to visit my fiancé again around March IF *Big IF* Japan finally decides to open their border and let us dangerous gaikokujin back into the country. We could take a peak at wait times then and see how things look. Ty for your input!