An Explanation of USCIS Published Processing Times

[Simplytex 387]

I see this come up both here at VJ and on other websites, where people quote the published 'Case Processing Time' for a certain SC on USCIS website while thinking that the # of months is how long it will take for their case to get processed. I don't know if mods think this is worth a sticky or not, but I'd at least like to make sure my understanding is correct and possibly help out other people in correctly interpret this information. I've tried to summarize the info provided here, which is a little hard to follow: https://egov.uscis.gov/processing-times/more-info

 

The starting point is to understand how the USCIS currently (as of this post - Sept 2022) calculates the time published on their page for I-130 applications. Most importantly, it is not some sort of "average of how long it takes cases to process". Nor is it the "processing time" calculation used for I-129F forms, which is the number of months it took for 80% of cases to be processed from their receipt date, averaged over the last 6 months. In fact, the I-130 form is one of a handful that still uses something called "Cycle time" (which is used for the dates of Form I‑129, Form I‑129CW, Form I‑130, Form I‑212, Form I‑360, Form I‑600, Form I‑600A, Form I‑601, Form I‑730, Form I‑800, Form I‑800A, and Form N‑565 - but notice not the Form I-129F.) Currently, the "cycle time" is defined as "how many months' worth of cases are awaiting a decision for a particular form." Now a rhetorical question: Why doesn't this approach make sense as a metric for us to understand I-130 cases? This is because (it seems like) the new online format for I-130 filing is 'evenly' distributing cases between service centers, even though those SC's don't process the same number of I-130's each month.

 

Here are some exaggerated, made up numbers on what I mean, based on some rough numbers from the USCIS quarterly statistics (primarily the fact that Texas/Nebraska/Potomac historically completed a vast majority of I-130 cases, while Vermont was one of the smaller offices...)

 

If all SC's were assigned as many cases as they are processing in equal proportions, then the 'cycle time' measurement would make sense:

• Texas SC: 20k cases pending, completed 5k cases in the previous month -> 20k/5k = 4 months 'cycle time'
• Vermont SC: 4k cases pending, completed 1k cases in previous month -> 4k/1k = 4 months 'cycle time'

 

But, due to the new system of assigning cases "equally", what is happening is more like the following:

• Texas SC: 12k cases pending, completed 5k cases in previous month -> 2.25mo 'cycle time'
• Vermont SC: 12k cases pending, completed 1k cases in previous month -> 12mo 'cycle time'

 

This trend seems to be changing, to where each SC is actually reviewing the same number of cases each quarter, but since the cycle time has some delay to it, those numbers won't match up well to what people see "in real life" - for example, right now, it seems like Vermont (16mo cycle time) is processing October cases from 2021, while California (10.5mo cycle time) is still at late August/September. 

Edited September 6, 2022 by Simplytex

[roughlyworried 5]

5 minutes ago, Simplytex said:

I see this come up both here at VJ and on other websites, where people quote the published 'Case Processing Time' for a certain SC on USCIS website while thinking that the # of months is how long it will take for their case to get processed. I don't know if mods think this is worth a sticky or not, but I'd at least like to make sure my understanding is correct and possibly help out other people in correctly interpret this information. I've tried to summarize the info provided here, which is a little hard to follow: https://egov.uscis.gov/processing-times/more-info

 

The starting point is to understand how the USCIS currently (as of this post - Sept 2022) calculates the time published on their page for I-130 applications. Most importantly, it is not some sort of "average of how long it takes cases to process". Nor is it the "processing time" calculation used for I-129F forms, which is a 6mo rolling average, of when 80% of cases will be completed. In fact, the I-130 form is one of a handful that still uses something called "Cycle time" (which is used for the dates of Form I‑129, Form I‑129CW, Form I‑130, Form I‑212, Form I‑360, Form I‑600, Form I‑600A, Form I‑601, Form I‑730, Form I‑800, Form I‑800A, and Form N‑565 - but notice not the Form I-129F.) Currently, the "cycle time" is defined as "how many months' worth of cases are awaiting a decision for a particular form." Now a rhetorical question: Why doesn't this approach make sense as a metric for us to understand I-130 cases? This is because (it seems like) the new online format for I-130 filing is 'evenly' distributing cases between service centers, even though those SC's don't process the same number of I-130's each month.

 

Here are some exaggerated, made up numbers on what I mean, based on some rough numbers from the USCIS quarterly statistics (primarily the fact that Texas/Nebraska/Potomac historically completed a vast majority of I-130 cases, while Vermont was one of the smaller offices...)

 

If all SC's were assigned as many cases as they are processing in equal proportions, then the 'cycle time' measurement would make sense:

• Texas SC: 20k cases pending, completed 5k cases in the previous month -> 20k/5k = 4 months 'cycle time'
• Vermont SC: 4k cases pending, completed 1k cases in previous month -> 4k/1k = 4 months 'cycle time'

 

But, due to the new system of assigning cases "equally", what is happening is more like the following:

• Texas SC: 12k cases pending, completed 5k cases in previous month -> 2.25mo 'cycle time'
• Vermont SC: 12k cases pending, completed 1k cases in previous month -> 12mo 'cycle time'

 

This trend seems to be changing, to where each SC is actually reviewing the same number of cases each quarter, but since the cycle time has some delay to it, those numbers won't match up well to what people see "in real life" - for example, right now, it seems like Vermont (16mo cycle time) is processing October cases from 2021, while California (10.5mo cycle time) is still at late August/September. 

Am I to understand this, then, that my case being at the Vermont service center is not likely to take that extra 6 months as opposed to Nebraska?

[Simplytex 387]

Just now, Kyl123 said:

Am I to understand this, then, that my case being at the Vermont service center is not likely to take that extra 6 months as opposed to Nebraska?

Yes, that is as best as I can understand. I too am at Vermont, and did this reading/research because the information from timelines updated on VJ seemed to indicate that Vermont was actually faster than other Service Centers, completely opposite of what the published USCIS stats are. Of course, this is assuming that the case is processed at Vermont and not transferred to a different SC before then.

[roughlyworried 5]

4 minutes ago, Simplytex said:

Yes, that is as best as I can understand. I too am at Vermont, and did this reading/research because the information from timelines updated on VJ seemed to indicate that Vermont was actually faster than other Service Centers, completely opposite of what the published USCIS stats are. Of course, this is assuming that the case is processed at Vermont and not transferred to a different SC before then.

Interesting. Question in regards to you, have you got a notice they were actively reviewing? December 2021 here, and no notice they are actively reviewing, just that they received it. Hoping that’s not bad news.

[roughlyworried 5]

7 minutes ago, Simplytex said:

Yes, that is as best as I can understand. I too am at Vermont, and did this reading/research because the information from timelines updated on VJ seemed to indicate that Vermont was actually faster than other Service Centers, completely opposite of what the published USCIS stats are. Of course, this is assuming that the case is processed at Vermont and not transferred to a different SC before then.

Also I just noticed this post was in reference to K visas. I’m doing a CR1. Would what we talked about still apply? That Vermont seems to actually be faster for CR1 visas as well?

[Simplytex 387]

11 minutes ago, Kyl123 said:

Also I just noticed this post was in reference to K visas. I’m doing a CR1. Would what we talked about still apply? That Vermont seems to actually be faster for CR1 visas as well?

This post is about the times USCIS has published about I-130 cases, which is why I posted it in the I-130 forum. K visas fall under the I-129F processing, which I noted actually follows a different method of calculating times.

 

13 minutes ago, Kyl123 said:

Interesting. Question in regards to you, have you got a notice they were actively reviewing? December 2021 here, and no notice they are actively reviewing, just that they received it. Hoping that’s not bad news.

I filed online, so I got a receipt number starting with IOE. Apparently it has been commonplace that since early this year, online filing immediately shows "Active Review" even though nothing is happening (like I literally submit the application and by the time I had added the receipt number to my account case tracker, it was showing AR), and some users have reported that there will be another "Active Review" status get pushed, shortly before the case is approved.

[roughlyworried 5]

21 minutes ago, Simplytex said:

This post is about the times USCIS has published about I-130 cases, which is why I posted it in the I-130 forum. K visas fall under the I-129F processing, which I noted actually follows a different method of calculating times.

 

 

Read your original message again and understand now. Thanks

 

22 minutes ago, Simplytex said:

I filed online, so I got a receipt number starting with IOE. Apparently it has been commonplace that since early this year, online filing immediately shows "Active Review" even though nothing is happening (like I literally submit the application and by the time I had added the receipt number to my account case tracker, it was showing AR), and some users have reported that there will be another "Active Review" status get pushed, shortly before the case is approved.

Interesting. I guess it’s not a good indicator of anything then.

[Simplytex 387]

33 minutes ago, Kyl123 said:

Interesting. I guess it’s not a good indicator of anything then.

That's the same conclusion I came to myself, honestly... Currently, the 'cycle time' is completely an internal USCIS metric which they even admit is a "methodology to gauge progress toward reducing our backlog of cases." It doesn't give any indication that I-130 cases are being done in order of receipt, what dates, anything. 

 

Better metrics are, for instance:

• A rolling average of how many months it took for 80% of cases have been completed, like they do for I-129F cases, or
• NVC processing time publication, which says exactly what date in the backlog they are actioning (harder for more complex matters, such as I-130 checks, I assume) 

But what we are given for I-130's has basically no bearing on knowing when any given case/Service Center might be actioned. 

 

To little surprise... THIS IS WHY PEOPLE NEED TO KEEP TIMELINES UP TO DATE!! The more crowd-sourced info we get, the better we will be able to "self-predict" when someone's case should be approved.

Edited September 6, 2022 by Simplytex

[Edtab 33]

One thing I know for sure, this wait is driving me insane!!😄😄

 

[Tuborg 4]

On 9/6/2022 at 10:10 AM, Simplytex said:

I see this come up both here at VJ and on other websites, where people quote the published 'Case Processing Time' for a certain SC on USCIS website while thinking that the # of months is how long it will take for their case to get processed. I don't know if mods think this is worth a sticky or not, but I'd at least like to make sure my understanding is correct and possibly help out other people in correctly interpret this information. I've tried to summarize the info provided here, which is a little hard to follow: https://egov.uscis.gov/processing-times/more-info

 

The starting point is to understand how the USCIS currently (as of this post - Sept 2022) calculates the time published on their page for I-130 applications. Most importantly, it is not some sort of "average of how long it takes cases to process". Nor is it the "processing time" calculation used for I-129F forms, which is the number of months it took for 80% of cases to be processed from their receipt date, averaged over the last 6 months. In fact, the I-130 form is one of a handful that still uses something called "Cycle time" (which is used for the dates of Form I‑129, Form I‑129CW, Form I‑130, Form I‑212, Form I‑360, Form I‑600, Form I‑600A, Form I‑601, Form I‑730, Form I‑800, Form I‑800A, and Form N‑565 - but notice not the Form I-129F.) Currently, the "cycle time" is defined as "how many months' worth of cases are awaiting a decision for a particular form." Now a rhetorical question: Why doesn't this approach make sense as a metric for us to understand I-130 cases? This is because (it seems like) the new online format for I-130 filing is 'evenly' distributing cases between service centers, even though those SC's don't process the same number of I-130's each month.

 

Here are some exaggerated, made up numbers on what I mean, based on some rough numbers from the USCIS quarterly statistics (primarily the fact that Texas/Nebraska/Potomac historically completed a vast majority of I-130 cases, while Vermont was one of the smaller offices...)

 

If all SC's were assigned as many cases as they are processing in equal proportions, then the 'cycle time' measurement would make sense:

• Texas SC: 20k cases pending, completed 5k cases in the previous month -> 20k/5k = 4 months 'cycle time'
• Vermont SC: 4k cases pending, completed 1k cases in previous month -> 4k/1k = 4 months 'cycle time'

 

But, due to the new system of assigning cases "equally", what is happening is more like the following:

• Texas SC: 12k cases pending, completed 5k cases in previous month -> 2.25mo 'cycle time'
• Vermont SC: 12k cases pending, completed 1k cases in previous month -> 12mo 'cycle time'

 

This trend seems to be changing, to where each SC is actually reviewing the same number of cases each quarter, but since the cycle time has some delay to it, those numbers won't match up well to what people see "in real life" - for example, right now, it seems like Vermont (16mo cycle time) is processing October cases from 2021, while California (10.5mo cycle time) is still at late August/September. 

This is an excellent explanation and is how I understood processing time for I-130s as well.

 

However, it seems that USCIS is creating more confusion now with their "Check Case Processing Times" website.  Now, it explicitly says "80% of cases are completed within XX months" when you check on a Service Center's processing time in the box that appears with the month(s).  This contradicts their own statement on I-130s using "Cycle Times" and resembles more the calculation used for I-129Fs.  Just when you think you have things figured out...

[Simplytex 387]

32 minutes ago, Tuborg said:

"80% of cases are completed within XX months"

I'm going to take a guess that basically they just have a spreadsheet or datatable on the backend, that when you select from the three dropdown fields gives you a result. And therefore, that a lazy programmer just created a single 'output' page  where the box title says 80% completed, even though per the additional info page, this isn't always true. For everything else that they do slowly, one thing USCIS does seem to keep pretty up-to-date are the "how we work" pages...

[roughlyworried 5]

Hello @Simplytex. Anymore updates or new info/insight you’ve seen? Curious because it’s saying 16 months for Vermont now, and from some cases I’ve seen recently, this seems to stand true for a lot of cases but maybe my evidence is just anecdotal. About to be 11 months here and it’s honestly getting exhausting. 

[Simplytex 387]

4 hours ago, roughlyworried said:

Hello @Simplytex. Anymore updates or new info/insight you’ve seen? Curious because it’s saying 16 months for Vermont now, and from some cases I’ve seen recently, this seems to stand true for a lot of cases but maybe my evidence is just anecdotal. About to be 11 months here and it’s honestly getting exhausting. 

So, Vermont is a weird SC - I filed I-129F for a K3 visa in June to try to get my I-130 processing sped up, and it worked for me (approved in Oct.) If you are at Vermont, I absolutely recommend that you try filing K3 if you haven't already.

[roughlyworried 5]

48 minutes ago, Simplytex said:

So, Vermont is a weird SC - I filed I-129F for a K3 visa in June to try to get my I-130 processing sped up, and it worked for me (approved in Oct.) If you are at Vermont, I absolutely recommend that you try filing K3 if you haven't already.

Do you honestly think it’s worth it? I’m already 11 months in and still need about a month more to prepare documents for NVC. What about those who don’t file for a K3? Are the timeline still accurate on the USCIS website you think?

[Jordanian Bride 268]

1 hour ago, Simplytex said:

So, Vermont is a weird SC - I filed I-129F for a K3 visa in June to try to get my I-130 processing sped up, and it worked for me (approved in Oct.) If you are at Vermont, I absolutely recommend that you try filing K3 if you haven't already.

Agreed. Just a few days before our NOA2 I thought the K3 was wishful thinking, but it really got us approved in 5 months in Vermont SC.

PD: April 4th, 2022

K3 received: 2 weeks after

First 'active review' was middle of September, and second 'active review' was two weeks after that. It was as if the K3 made them open our case again. The 2nd active review usually comes 6 months+ after!

Edited November 7, 2022 by Jordanian Bride