EAD I-765 processing time data analysis

[RipeAvocado 3]

Hello all,

 

I decided to do some data hacking since I was curious about when to expect my EAD. Also VJ sends me a weekly forecast and I was wondering how accurate and/or reliable it is. I was also curious to find out how consistent are timeframes listed on USCIS.

A little background: I filed AOS+EAD+AP on April 12th and had my Bio appt on May 18th. Since then VJ has sent me 5 EAD forecasts which average out to 11th of November, 2022. So I had some spare time and using VJ timeline resource I have compiled a CSV spreadsheet with ~200 rows of "filed", "noa", "bio appt", "approved",  "card received" dates data. I then wrote a simple script in Python using Pandas Dataframes to allow easy date data manipulation and plotting.

 

Here are some stats:

- Median number of days between Filed & Approved = 202 days (71 days standard deviation)

- Median number of days between Filed & Card Received = 208 days (71 days standard deviation)

- The histogram below shows a frequency distribution of number of days since application was filed until card was received. I've split the data into 12 bins, each bin representing 1 month. As you can see there's a massive spike on 7th month and a VERY steep decline after 8th month (after 250 days).

Conclusion: my data wrangling, USCIS processing time estimates and averaged weekly VJ forecasts are all independent of each other but are all consistent which adds a lot of confidence to validity and trustability of these methods. Overall it looks like 7-8 months after filing is when I  should expect to get approval/card received. Having filed on 04/2022 + 7 months = 11/2022 (November) sounds about right. November is exactly what VJ forecasts suggest as well. 

Edited June 21, 2022 by RipeAvocado

[K1visaHopeful 2,771]

How do you explain my I751 VJ approval date going from "any day now" to "past due" to "June 2023" with a span of 2 weeks inbetween....when the USCIS prediction is 14.5 months and has been 14.5 months for quite a few months (So Oct 2022)?

[Crazy Cat 41,299]

8 hours ago, RipeAvocado said:

I decided to do some data hacking

I prefer to call this data mining.........😀

Edited June 21, 2022 by Crazy Cat

[powerpuff 6,465]

Sadly, for me EAD/AP are pending for almost a year now. Thankfully I have received my GC but EAD is completely independent of I-485 so theoretically if I hadn’t had my AOS interview, I’d still be waiting for EAD/AP. Considering this factor, I’d say K1 is no longer a practical or a viable option. CR1 is absolutely the way to go. 

[EatBulaga 307]

11 hours ago, RipeAvocado said:

Conclusion: my data wrangling, USCIS processing time estimates and averaged weekly VJ forecasts are all independent of each other but are all consistent which adds a lot of confidence to validity and trustability of these methods. Overall it looks like 7-8 months after filing is when I  should expect to get approval/card received. Having filed on 04/2022 + 7 months = 11/2022 (November) sounds about right. November is exactly what VJ forecasts suggest as well. 

So the USCIS processing time for I-765 for (c)(9) applicants at National Benefit Center of 8-month is fairly accurate?

https://egov.uscis.gov/processing-times/

 

But if you select any other service centers besides NBC, like California, Nebraska, Texas, or Vermont the processing time is longer. So that may explain where most of the EAD delays are?

 

Edited June 21, 2022 by EatBulaga

[Chancy 6,239]

*** Moved from AOS from K1 Visas forum to Working & Traveling During US Immigration, to be among other threads about EAD processing ***