USCIS processing times website changes

[Educ8r 39]

USCIS had a listening session today and the subject was the changes to the processing times page.  They said that the months that come up when the form information is entered is the time it has taken them to process 80% of that type form at that particular SC over the last 6 months.  They stated several times that the processing page shows historical data and shouldn't be used to predict times.  Ok, I get all that.  Here's what I have a problem with...my PD is 8/10/21 so this past Tuesday I passed 9 months since filing. Technically 80% of the cases filed around the same time as mine should have a decision by now. I also speak regularly on VJ with two others who have processing times within 15 days of mine so they are about to arrive at the 9 month anniversary also. We are all USC petitioning for spouses and are all at the CSC. None of our cases have been approved and each of us has made an out of processing time inquiry that hasn't been answered. (When we made the inquiries,  we were within our rights to do so as these were made before the website changed on May 5.) If USCIS processes 80% of the I-130 spousal cases received in the last 6 months within 8.5 months, I find it hard to believe that the three of us just happen to fall within the 20% that haven't been processed yet. VJ only has a small amount of the information available on all cases so it wouldbe even more usual that we would also just happen to follow VJ.  What am I missing? 

[Crazy Cat 41,851]

I'm sure you know that there have been more than one million I-130 cases pending at any one time for years.  I think your sample size of 3  could easily fall into the longer than average time decisions.  Patience is the key. 

[Crazy Cat 41,851]

According to the VJ processing times stats, you are getting close:

 

[Educ8r 39]

12 minutes ago, Crazy Cat said:

According to the VJ processing times stats, you are getting close:

 

Thus has been all over the place.  Just recently it quoted an October date for CSC. I  realize it's based on VJ information and that is very limited when compared to what the actual data is.

When I get the weekly VJ emails with the estimated date and click on it, they are not only not my specific case but often from cases that aren't even from my CS.

[Troy B 223]

as one of the three,  I'm thinking maybe a good time to play the lotto

[Educ8r 39]

3 minutes ago, Troy B said:

as one of the three,  I'm thinking maybe a good time to play the lotto

I was just thinking that! 🤣🤣

[Ctavarez90 244]

As one of the three as well, just trying to be patient even though it is hard. Just reminding myself that every day is one day closer to approval

[hopeJourney 14]

2 hours ago, Educ8r said:

USCIS had a listening session today and the subject was the changes to the processing times page.  They said that the months that come up when the form information is entered is the time it has taken them to process 80% of that type form at that particular SC over the last 6 months.  They stated several times that the processing page shows historical data and shouldn't be used to predict times.  Ok, I get all that.  Here's what I have a problem with...my PD is 8/10/21 so this past Tuesday I passed 9 months since filing. Technically 80% of the cases filed around the same time as mine should have a decision by now. I also speak regularly on VJ with two others who have processing times within 15 days of mine so they are about to arrive at the 9 month anniversary also. We are all USC petitioning for spouses and are all at the CSC. None of our cases have been approved and each of us has made an out of processing time inquiry that hasn't been answered. (When we made the inquiries,  we were within our rights to do so as these were made before the website changed on May 5.) If USCIS processes 80% of the I-130 spousal cases received in the last 6 months within 8.5 months, I find it hard to believe that the three of us just happen to fall within the 20% that haven't been processed yet. VJ only has a small amount of the information available on all cases so it wouldbe even more usual that we would also just happen to follow VJ.  What am I missing? 

 

The 80% statistic applies to forms that use the "process time" method, which the I-130 and some other forms do not use (they use the "cycle time" method). I wrote about this issue with an example in this post: Understanding USCIS I-130 processing times - IR-1 / CR-1 Spouse Visa Case Filing and Progress Reports - VisaJourney.

 

You can also read about the process times on the USCIS website Case Processing Times (uscis.gov).

 

They should have been more careful with their language on the listening session. 

[JJ1008 1]

My PD is 08/05/2021 and it's also at the CSC, we also submitted an inquiry before the processing dates changed, and heard nothing back, so we tried to send one more and got a notice saying they would reply to the first one within 30 days of the date it was sent, and to send another inquiry if we got no response. We waited and after 30 days passed we attempted again, and it now just says we are within normal processing times and can't send another inquiry until July. My petitioner also reached out to his local congressman over a month ago, and got no reply there either. It sucks just being left in the dark, but here's hoping all us August filers hear some good news soon! 

[Ctavarez90 244]

53 minutes ago, JJ1008 said:

My PD is 08/05/2021 and it's also at the CSC, we also submitted an inquiry before the processing dates changed, and heard nothing back, so we tried to send one more and got a notice saying they would reply to the first one within 30 days of the date it was sent, and to send another inquiry if we got no response. We waited and after 30 days passed we attempted again, and it now just says we are within normal processing times and can't send another inquiry until July. My petitioner also reached out to his local congressman over a month ago, and got no reply there either. It sucks just being left in the dark, but here's hoping all us August filers hear some good news soon! 

I’m thinking a lot of us will get our approvals in July but I’m trying to be patient

[Educ8r 39]

8 minutes ago, Ctavarez90 said:

I’m thinking a lot of us will get our approvals in July but I’m trying to be patient

Hopefully. That way we won't have to go through another round of sending inquiries that don't get answered.

[Ctavarez90 244]

2 hours ago, Educ8r said:

Hopefully. That way we won't have to go through another round of sending inquiries that don't get answered.

I totally agree