MAY 2022 I-129F K1 FILERS

[Obllak[BANNED] 186]

Just now, jgray808 said:

Oh no, feel better!!  I love the data; gives me verifiable hope!  Thanks for sharing with all of us!

Thank you! It’s our pleasure 🧡

[Lynxyonok 316]

On 4/8/2023 at 3:41 PM, jgray808 said:

I see where you're coming from but don't you think that will further their backlog and potentially negatively impact the ongoing timeline?  

It will in the long run - in the short run they just need to show that changes are taking place. It's puzzling to see expedites for November 2021 cases being shot down while February 2022 cases are being approved. Something's off.

 

Not to mention that Q1 2023 numbers' release was delayed by 3 months - that's a new record for USCIS, the previous longest delay being half of that.

 

It's as if they know their new methods are going to work and they just need to survive long enough for them to get established.

 

In the meantime, anything goes - even denial rate is up (and cases are routinely reopened after they'd been shot down).

[Lynxyonok 316]

On 4/8/2023 at 9:08 AM, Obllak said:

I have seen people making such big deal out of RFEs. RFE is no big deal, they just ask for extra stuff, and you just send it. Why are you terrified of it?

An even further delay.

 

It's proving harder to wait.

[Lynxyonok 316]

On 3/30/2023 at 9:34 AM, meladee said:

Can you share your dataset for comparison? Or at least a little more detail on how you're doing your own calculation that results in a longer date. I have done something similar on my own that I've poked at a lot, so maybe I can poke at yours a little to see the differences.

So, it's extremely simple. All open cases divided by the fastest processing monthly speed.

 

E.g., I'm a mid-May filer, and the first wave of cases is about 11K ahead of me.

 

Looking at Q1 2023 USCIS data for support, I thus establish:

 

Q1:8509

4M:11345

4.1M:12054

4.2M:12763

4.3M:13472

5M:14182

Q2:17018

 

I.e., it takes a quarter to touch 8509 cases, 4 months - 11,345, 4 months and a week  -12,054, etc.

 

A concern though is that the approval trough is so wide. So if one isn't lucky (wave 1, 4 months out), they may be in the rearguard, 6+ months out.

[Lynxyonok 316]

On 4/8/2023 at 3:48 PM, Obllak said:

Thank you! Daily. We usually do it ~11 CET time, but I am very sick since Sunday, so I am updating when I feel like I have a bit energy to use it for the update.

Hope you feel better - I'd post a "care" emoji" if one was available.

 

How are you handling "document was mailed" and "notice explaining USCIS actions was mailed" statuses? Seems like while most of those cases go into a death spiral, about 1 in 5 do come back, some even with approvals (although usually with an RFE). Thoughts?

 

Also, how are you catching cases being reopened?

[Obllak[BANNED] 186]

2 hours ago, Lynxyonok said:

An even further delay.

 

It's proving harder to wait.

What we have seen in the data is that most cases with status REFR are mostly processed rather quickly

[Obllak[BANNED] 186]

2 hours ago, Lynxyonok said:

Hope you feel better - I'd post a "care" emoji" if one was available.

 

How are you handling "document was mailed" and "notice explaining USCIS actions was mailed" statuses? Seems like while most of those cases go into a death spiral, about 1 in 5 do come back, some even with approvals (although usually with an RFE). Thoughts?

 

Also, how are you catching cases being reopened?

These cases are in “Pending”. I personally don’t have any specific thoughts about it. Just one possible way of the processing outcome. Is there something specific you would like to know?

 

As far as “catching cases” goes, we are always scanning all cases and checking changes.

 

 

[jgray808 15]

On 4/9/2023 at 10:58 PM, Obllak said:

These cases are in “Pending”. I personally don’t have any specific thoughts about it. Just one possible way of the processing outcome. Is there something specific you would like to know?

 

As far as “catching cases” goes, we are always scanning all cases and checking changes.

 

 

Interesting apparent uptick in May cases that appear to pending.  Are those likely cases that have been expedited or is it possible that they're the whole way out that far with standard processing?  Seems like they're just all over the place with what is being processed.

[Obllak[BANNED] 186]

7 hours ago, jgray808 said:

Interesting apparent uptick in May cases that appear to pending.  Are those likely cases that have been expedited or is it possible that they're the whole way out that far with standard processing?  Seems like they're just all over the place with what is being processed.

This is a standard way of their processing. As you can see "Pending" numbers are decreasing sequentially with months. They just start touching cases, but not terminating them yet. 

[jgray808 15]

6 hours ago, Obllak said:

This is a standard way of their processing. As you can see "Pending" numbers are decreasing sequentially with months. They just start touching cases, but not terminating them yet. 

Makes sense but still so strange haha 

[MountainGuy 2]

Is there a May 2022 WhatsApp group? I can’t find a link anywhere. Thank you. 

[Lynxyonok 316]

5 hours ago, MountainGuy said:

Is there a May 2022 WhatsApp group? I can’t find a link anywhere. Thank you. 

There's a Facebook one, but if you don't speak Tagalog, you're going to be booted very quick, personal experience 😅

[Lynxyonok 316]

So, as a mid-May filer, I expect the first chance of a decision around mid-July. The first chance means that USCIS takes +3+ months to review some cases, presumably those they find difficult; some linger even further.

 

A decision also carries a 1:3 chance of an RFE.

 

Here's a current recap of open cases; a disclaimer, my research is manual, so it may be delayed compared to those with auto scripts.

[Nikobe 129]

They kicked off April. It took them roughly four weeks to go from March to April, so we should see the first wave of approvals around the end of this month.

Realistically, I think June will be the month for early May filers and July/August will be the month for the late May filers.

[Eddie101 87]

21 minutes ago, Nikobe said:

They kicked off April. It took them roughly four weeks to go from March to April, so we should see the first wave of approvals around the end of this month.

Realistically, I think June will be the month for early May filers and July/August will be the month for the late May filers.

It is starting to get excited after such a long wait. March has lots of cases and their processing rate is much higher now.