MAY 2022 I-129F K1 FILERS

[Roy an Panitta 29]

10 minutes ago, Lynxyonok said:

Not sure if everyone else's timelines keep getting pushed back - mine is, I'm almost up to September 2023. That's VJ estimate.

 

I'm tracking the first wave of approvals of this moment around WAC2290022500.

 

For a mid-May filer like me, that's 18,462 cases away from the goal post - assuming I make it to the first wave at all - and that, based on official USCIS processing data, is 8.5 months away - i.e., mid-October 2023. And those hit by RFEs have to layer on anywhere from 2 to 12 weeks.

 

Tough, I know. I've noticed an uptick in withdrawal rates.

 

But we will get through this.

 

 

well on a more posative note concerning the withdrawl rates.. it'll be one less in front of us.. assuming they are in front of us... well hoping they are in front of us... 😳😩

   yes we will get thru this

[Lynxyonok 316]

3 minutes ago, Roy an Panitta said:

well on a more posative note concerning the withdrawl rates.. it'll be one less in front of us.. assuming they are in front of us... well hoping they are in front of us... 😳😩

   yes we will get thru this

True

 

And you still owe me a recipe

[Lynxyonok 316]

Be positive!

 

First May 2022 case (that I know of) has been approved:

 

2290081834: May 13th - January 12th

[myohmyohmy 15]

I just found this in another persons post and watched whoever is behind the youtube's presentation, it's really good!  Do what he says and complain to your congressman and senators and the President!

 

"I follow https://www.youtube.com/@uscisanalysis who gives monthly updates on projections of how long you'll be waiting for NOA2 based on the data he's looking at and always under the assumption USCIS makes *zero* changes. His last one is before we really saw these improvements so will still say about 18months for Oct 2022 but hoping his next video shows it down to 15/16. He also just gives a good overview of how USCIS is doing week on week and how things have changed."

[Lynxyonok 316]

In running numbers this week, I did notice that USCIS' first wave is speeding up.

Now, personally I believe that to be a non-factor as the window of approval is widening - it's now up to 4 months, September to December, i.e., cases from any weeks in between can be touched during any given upcoming day. Furthermore, I am seeing a greatly increased RFE rate, e.g., there are over a thousand cases from October / November 2021 filers that received RFEs in January, but let's set this aside for now.

 

So, for a moment I'm going to not be my usual objective self but rather a hopeless optimist, expecting to grab an approval among the first within my hundred of cases. If that's the case, what am I looking at?

 

The first wave of USCIS approvals is currently 7 months, 1 week away for a mid-May 2022 filer.

 

So, if you're trying to schedule one more meeting with your beneficiary, do it before September 2023.

If you need to stack up PTO / fore schedule vacations for the purpose of being there for the interview, look at December 2023 and later.

 

Of course, these are but guesses...

[Roy an Panitta 29]

On 1/25/2023 at 7:51 AM, Lynxyonok said:

All too quiet on the Western front!

 

Seriously, there are almost 4K of us!

 

Anyways.

 

The current first approval wave is around 11/15/21, and yes, our expected timeframes for own approval are still falling back, it looks like October when all chips fall down.

 

So, when and where is everyone to meet their SO in the meantime
Not saying she'd (or he'd) get bored and stray but... skin touch beats a million of texts anyday.

i took all my vacation an comp time i saved from last year an came out here to BKK at the end of december an im leaving Mar 7th. Im hoping to get back in june but will have to see.. im not giving up hope that the 15.5 month will hold even if the numbers say different. By the grace of God something has to give

[Lynxyonok 316]

On 2/19/2023 at 8:25 PM, Roy an Panitta said:

i took all my vacation an comp time i saved from last year an came out here to BKK at the end of december an im leaving Mar 7th. Im hoping to get back in june but will have to see.. im not giving up hope that the 15.5 month will hold even if the numbers say different. By the grace of God something has to give

That's the way to go. I'm burning my PTO left and right too to keep the relationship going. And to make more pictures proving an ongoing connection between us.

[Ok-Mix 117]

On 2/11/2023 at 7:45 PM, Lynxyonok said:

So, if you're trying to schedule one more meeting with your beneficiary, do it before September 2023.

If you need to stack up PTO / fore schedule vacations for the purpose of being there for the interview, look at December 2023 and later.

 

Of course, these are but guesses...

Regarding being there for the interview... I was thinking of going and "being present" for moral support.  Taking her to the embassy, waiting outside, etc.

What other benefits are there?  Could it help her case?  To mention to them I'm there with her?

Or is it really worth the cost to go there, and the time off that I would have to take?  And just trust that she will be fine?

 

Thoughts on pros & cons please... 

[Lynxyonok 316]

On 2/21/2023 at 9:03 AM, Ok-Mix1229 said:

Regarding being there for the interview... I was thinking of going and "being present" for moral support.  Taking her to the embassy, waiting outside, etc.

What other benefits are there?  Could it help her case?  To mention to them I'm there with her?

Or is it really worth the cost to go there, and the time off that I would have to take?  And just trust that she will be fine?

 

Thoughts on pros & cons please... 

I imagine it would only help to be there. My only concern is that embassies take weeks to print a visa - and an average American can't afford to be away from their job that long. E.g., one fiancée got her passport today, having interviewed back on 2/7 in Warsaw. Seventeen days.

Edited February 24, 2023 by Lynxyonok

[Lynxyonok 316]

I just want to say, stay strong, folks. I'm running December 2021 cases now - seeing quite a few withdrawals, especially right at the same mark as the first wave of approvals. They almost made it... so sad.

 

I know I'm burning all my PTO and cash reserves to not be one of those - 2 trips planned to see my special other, one on Monday, one in May. It's so terrifying to give up and get used to life without the one, picking someone less compatible but much closer geographically.

 

Stay strong.

 

VJ estimates mid-May 2022 approvals in mid-August 2023. My data points to late September 2023.

USCIS is delaying Q1 2023 reports by 8 weeks now - not a good sign.

I'd love to join the cheerleaders in the "number of processed cases hit the new high" thread, but the overwhelming amount of RFEs (at times 30%, 40% of cases touched) prevents me.

[Ngillet 267]

3 hours ago, Lynxyonok said:

I just want to say, stay strong, folks. I'm running December 2021 cases now - seeing quite a few withdrawals, especially right at the same mark as the first wave of approvals. They almost made it... so sad.

 

I know I'm burning all my PTO and cash reserves to not be one of those - 2 trips planned to see my special other, one on Monday, one in May. It's so terrifying to give up and get used to life without the one, picking someone less compatible but much closer geographically.

 

Stay strong.

 

VJ estimates mid-May 2022 approvals in mid-August 2023. My data points to late September 2023.

USCIS is delaying Q1 2023 reports by 8 weeks now - not a good sign.

I'd love to join the cheerleaders in the "number of processed cases hit the new high" thread, but the overwhelming amount of RFEs (at times 30%, 40% of cases touched) prevents me.

I wonder if they are being approved for i134a Humanitarian Parole program and then withdrawing the k1...

[Deekol 25]

NOA1: May 13 2022.

Fingers crossed.

Are we there yet ?

[Lynxyonok 316]

10 minutes ago, Deekol said:

NOA1: May 13 2022.

Fingers crossed.

Are we there yet ?

Almost. Somehow estimated timelines have sped up a lot lately. I'm not seeing why or how as RFEs are plentiful these days but I will roll with the flow and celebrate the good news. 

[Roy an Panitta 29]

has anybody seen this

 

https://www.visajourney.com/timeline/profile.php?id=421052

 

a 05/2022 I129F filer has now left the NVC as of 03/10/2023

 

K1 Visa Event Date Service Center : California Service Center Transferred? No Consulate : Ankara, Turkey I-129F Sent : 2022-05-05 I-129F NOA1 : 2022-05-09 I-129F RFE(s) :   RFE Reply(s) :   I-129F NOA2 : 2023-01-11 NVC Received : 2023-02-01 Date Case #, IIN, and BIN assigned : 2023-02-24 NVC Left : 2023-02-27

[MountainGuy 2]

Iran. 
 

Likely expedited for some humanitarian reason.