MAY 2022 I-129F K1 FILERS

[MarJhi 959]

47 minutes ago, Lynxyonok said:

 

Well, now that processing times are up to 15.5 months (hey, new high!), we might as well start making acquaintances among only ourselves, petitioners

When we started ours in July 2021 the processing time was 8 months, it got extended every couple of months and we eventually got our NOA2 after 14.5 months (nearly double the initial estimate). It was brutal to watch the timeline move further away from the original estimate. For every 2 steps forward you took one step back.

 

 

Hopefully at some point the trend starts going quicker rather than slower for you guys. 

[Lynxyonok 316]

Just now, MarJhi said:

When we started ours in July 2021 the processing time was 8 months, it got extended every couple of months and we eventually got our NOA2 after 14.5 months (nearly double the initial estimate). It was brutal to watch the timeline move further away from the original estimate. For every 2 steps forward you took one step back.

 

 

Hopefully at some point the trend starts going quicker rather than slower for you guys. 

 

Thank you

 

I can't wait for our government to join the 21st century. Maybe by year 2050.

[Eddie101 87]

I wonder if USCIS had a hard time hiring adjudicators. According to VJ trends processing of all types of visas seems to get slower and slower.
 

Edited December 2, 2022 by Eddie101

[Lynxyonok 316]

7 hours ago, Eddie101 said:

I wonder if USCIS had a hard time hiring adjudicators. According to VJ trends processing of all types of visas seems to get slower and slower.
 

 

Employment visas spiked last quarter. Our booming economy needs them

 

In all seriousness though, some of us are by now qualified to apply to USCIS.

*Checks UsaJobs*

 

Well duh! Nearly all of their jobs are internal - not open to the public!

[Eddie101 87]

8 hours ago, Lynxyonok said:

 

Employment visas spiked last quarter. Our booming economy needs them

 

In all seriousness though, some of us are by now qualified to apply to USCIS.

*Checks UsaJobs*

 

Well duh! Nearly all of their jobs are internal - not open to the public!

Well, that's probably very true. Maybe quite a number of people at USCIS today went through the immigration process themselves.
You really get all into this while you are waiting and waiting...

I somehow read they were forced to do something about the employment visa backlog. But isnt't it true that at the same time family based visa processing slowed down?
Just because they had to shift their focus. I hope they somehow get their focus back to the family based visas. K1 and CR1 are really slow. Just three years ago or so
people went through that process so much faster.
 

Edited December 3, 2022 by Eddie101

[Eddie101 87]

I just recently saw they approved the first few fiscal year 2023 petitions.
A nice little milestone, I think. 

Maybe the next would be to see their processing time go down at least not increasing even more.
I think it was 10 months when we May 2022 filers started, now it's 15,5 months. Crazy.
I hoped we have seen the worst and things are getting better in the near future. Fingers crossed.
 

[Lynxyonok 316]

2 minutes ago, Eddie101 said:

Well, that's probably very true. Maybe quite a number of people at USCIS today went through the immigration process themselves.
You really get all into this while you are waiting and waiting...

I somehow read they were forced to do something about the employment visa backlog. But isnt't it true that at the same time family based visa processing slowed down?
Just because they had to shift their focus. I hope they somehow get their focus back to the family based visas. K1 and CR1 are really slow. Just three years ago or so
people went so much faster through that process.

 

I agree that the whole thing is skewed against people doing things the right way to an unspeakable point. First, because there are no words to describe the level of atrociousness, second, because attempting to do so will lead to a ban. And the only way to impact this positively is by engaging our Representatives and Senators.

 

Sorry, I do not see the whole thing improving. 73K illegals crossed through Mexico last month alone - all available monies will go in that direction as 73K trumps 11K I-129Fs.

 

It's dreary. It just needs to be survived.

 

[Lynxyonok 316]

3 minutes ago, Eddie101 said:

I just recently saw they approved the first few fiscal year 2023 petitions.
A nice little milestone, I think. 

Maybe the next would be to see their processing time go down at least not increasing even more.
I think it was 10 months when we May 2022 filers started, now it's 15,5 months. Crazy.
I hoped we have seen the worst and things are getting better in the near future. Fingers crossed.
 

 

There are a few petitions being approved here and there with no apparent rhyme or reason. We don't know if they were due to an expedite or whatnot unless somehow one has daily statuses of each petition saved for the past year+. Overall, FYE 2023 real work is about 1.5 - 2 weeks away.

Edited December 3, 2022 by Lynxyonok

[Lynxyonok 316]

First of all: This is a planning post, not a panic post.

 

So, some of us will be lucky: I see some petitions being approved right now right at the 13-month cusp.

 

So don't fill up your calendar past June 2023.

 

On the other hand, should anyone's case fall behind and start to exceed processing times, do be aware that we can't ask USCIS until we reach 130% of processing cycle which is for us February of 2024.

 

So do think of where you may meet your special other in the meantime.

 

Everyone's mileage will vary: my SO has got to see me every 6 months - I'm lining up my travel plans accordingly.

 

Find out your timeline. :)

[Eddie101 87]

10 hours ago, Lynxyonok said:

First of all: This is a planning post, not a panic post.

 

So, some of us will be lucky: I see some petitions being approved right now right at the 13-month cusp.

 

So don't fill up your calendar past June 2023.

 

On the other hand, should anyone's case fall behind and start to exceed processing times, do be aware that we can't ask USCIS until we reach 130% of processing cycle which is for us February of 2024.

 

So do think of where you may meet your special other in the meantime.

 

Everyone's mileage will vary: my SO has got to see me every 6 months - I'm lining up my travel plans accordingly.

 

Find out your timeline. :)

It's good to hear you recently saw approvals within 13 months.:)
They might spread approvals over several months in order to reduce average processing time.
However, this comes with a cost. The reduction is temporary and leaves some petitions behind.
When they finally process those their average processing time goes up again.
...or they were able to hire more staff and also process K1s faster, let's see.

By the way it sounds like you are actively tracking the progress of USCIS which is really cool! Thanks for that. Do you happen to have a
google doc or so of pending fiscal 2023 petitions? That way we can see how many petitions are out there each month?
I know there is one for 2022, and I think I saw a link somewhere here for 2023 but can't find it anymore.
When our month is getting closer to become due maybe I could help to track progress.
We were lucky to meet roughly every 3 months outside the US which helped. We could use ESTA to visit but are unsure if it would have
any negative impact. Anyway, it's still hard to wait so long. It really shouldn't be such an ordeal.


 

Edited December 6, 2022 by Eddie101

[Lynxyonok 316]

11 hours ago, Eddie101 said:

Do you happen to have a
google doc or so of pending fiscal 2023 petitions? That way we can see how many petitions are out there each month?

Mine is much simpler than spreadsheets and other scripts flying around, it's just a manual tally of open cases. I'm not all the way to early October (approval border) though just yet.

[Lynxyonok 316]

By the way, looking at 2021 Excel file ( Jan to Dec 2021 Filers - Google Drive ), even at USCIS's own 80% completion metric, their true processing timeline is about 17 months, not 15.5 as of 12/6 updates for July 2021 cases.

 

They may be indeed jumping the queue just to keep averages lower.

[Lynxyonok 316]

Here's an interesting metric. How long was the gap between the end of a fiscal quarter and the posted results of said quarter?

 

Q3-2022 (Ended 6/30/22) was reported on November 3, 2022: 4 months, 3 days later: 19% increase quarter-over-quarter

Q2-2022 (Ended 3/31/22) was reported on July 15, 2022: 3 months, 15 days later: 59% increase quarter-over-quarter

Q1-2022 (Ended 12/31/21) was reported on March 9, 2022: 2 months, 9 days later: flat

Q4-2021 (Ended 9/30/22) was reported on December 15, 2021: 2 months, 15 days later: flat / a tiniest decrease

Q3-2021 (Ended 3/31/31) was reported on August 17, 2021: 2 months 17 days later

 

Thus.

 

Either USCIS leadership (edit: New leadership - they changed Directors / some Assistant Directors this spring - right when the expedites dried up) truly believes they will prevail, and they just need to last long enough to prove that.

Or they are sinking.

 

But we're going to be positive.

Edited December 7, 2022 by Lynxyonok

[Eddie101 87]

On 12/7/2022 at 2:43 AM, Lynxyonok said:

Here's an interesting metric. How long was the gap between the end of a fiscal quarter and the posted results of said quarter?

 

Q3-2022 (Ended 6/30/22) was reported on November 3, 2022: 4 months, 3 days later: 19% increase quarter-over-quarter

Q2-2022 (Ended 3/31/22) was reported on July 15, 2022: 3 months, 15 days later: 59% increase quarter-over-quarter

Q1-2022 (Ended 12/31/21) was reported on March 9, 2022: 2 months, 9 days later: flat

Q4-2021 (Ended 9/30/22) was reported on December 15, 2021: 2 months, 15 days later: flat / a tiniest decrease

Q3-2021 (Ended 3/31/31) was reported on August 17, 2021: 2 months 17 days later

 

Thus.

 

Either USCIS leadership (edit: New leadership - they changed Directors / some Assistant Directors this spring - right when the expedites dried up) truly believes they will prevail, and they just need to last long enough to prove that.

Or they are sinking.

 

But we're going to be positive.

Yes, it's interesting. I think they are willing to improve things but low on resources and the work flow is generally slow. EADs now seem to go so much faster. Maybe that processing has been updated with modern technology. 
Of course we stay positive, we have to, and it feels like the worst is behind us.

[Roy an Panitta 29]

I have to agree i do believe the worst is behind us. USCIS is supposed to be getting more agents in place next year earlie so hopefully that'll speed up the process. either way we are past the half way mark