Future I-129f filers for Manila, Phils (merged)

[GinoNiña 182]

By reading this graph courtesy from VJ. Manila consulate has issuing 500 K1 visa a month on average pre covid. During covid Manila consulate only issuing 50/month for the next 24 months. 

Is this mean Manila consulate has a backlog of about 450/month and theyŕe only issuing 50/month, and for 24 months? If you do the math, its a total of 10,800 potential souls awaiting for an interview for their K1 visa. Its going to take them at least 2 years to catch up.

Does anyone know if Manila consulate doing something to compensate for this?  Anyone here has a Kumpadre or Kumadre in Manila embassy? Pwede ho bang malaman?

I just recieved my NOA1 on March 31, 2022. Is there any other route besides K1? 

 

Good and bad comments are welcome.

[JeanneAdil 6,470]

https://travel.state.gov/content/dam/visas/Statistics/Non-Immigrant-Statistics/MonthlyNIVIssuances/JANUARY 2022 - NIV Issuances by Post and Visa Class.pdf

 

2022

january 182 K1 approvals for Manila

February 262 approved 

 

Look under NIV for K1 approved stats for embassy thru Febraury 2022 by post (embassy) and visa type

[Chancy 6,241]

*** Moved from K1 Process & Procedures to the Philippine regional forum, for country-specific input.  Reminder to post only in English outside of this sub-forum.  Non-English posts are welcome here in the regional sub-forums. ***

 

[Rocio0010 5,579]

Why not go the spousal route?

[slavaskii 886]

As your NOA1 is extremely recent, you should know that Manila is, from what I've seen, currently the worst embassy processing K1s. I am not terribly informed on the state of their backlog, but I would not be surprised if there are thousands of people waiting. Manila was always a busy embassy and they were closed for a very long time; they even closed briefly in January for Omnicron. 

 

I don't like commenting on the differences between K1 and IR1/CR1 because this is a choice ultimately left up to you and your fiancee, but I think the calculus changes somewhat for someone from the Philippines. I'm not entirely sure, but I think the spousal visa may have become quicker due to prioritization at the embassy. I hope a filer from there can answer this question more thoroughly, but it's good that you've seen this information now and are aware of it.  

[Boiler 45,411]

Your premise is wrong

 

K1 requires you to have met within the last 2 years so the demand must be well down due to limited travel opportunities.

[GinoNiña 182]

2 minutes ago, Boiler said:

Your premise is wrong

 

K1 requires you to have met within the last 2 years so the demand must be well down due to limited travel opportunities.

Yes! I consider this 2 years requirements as well. There will be a huge vacuum of K1 applicants but not until all backlogs has been exhausted. According to the graph, from Jun 2020 thru Sep 2021 (15 months), at average of 50/month, its less than a thousand. At prior covid, Manila consulate averaging at 500 K1 visa/month. 

So the demand you mention would take in effect in about 24 months. 

And I learned somewhere that when an applicant has timed out, USCIS is kind enough to extend their time so they don't need to produce new time sensitive evidence. 

[GinoNiña 182]

2 hours ago, JeanneAdil said:

https://travel.state.gov/content/dam/visas/Statistics/Non-Immigrant-Statistics/MonthlyNIVIssuances/JANUARY 2022 - NIV Issuances by Post and Visa Class.pdf

 

2022

january 182 K1 approvals for Manila

February 262 approved 

 

Look under NIV for K1 approved stats for embassy thru Febraury 2022 by post (embassy) and visa type

182 compare to at least 500 pre covid.  Well for 15 months, they were down to 50/month. I guess this is good news. They are ramping up their  productivity. Thanks for this hyperlink. I will monitor it to increase my hope. 

[Redro 4,611]

3 hours ago, GinoNiña said:

182 compare to at least 500 pre covid.  Well for 15 months, they were down to 50/month. I guess this is good news. They are ramping up their  productivity. Thanks for this hyperlink. I will monitor it to increase my hope. 

Do you want to stay with the K1 visa process or are you thinking of moving to IR1/CR1. 

 

Quite a few couples changed from K1 to IR1/CR1 because Manila wasn't issuing visas. They went the Utah marriage route and then met up in the Philippines as the USC spouse could obtain a visa as the family member. Some other couples decided to marry before their first in person meeting and then the USC flew to Philippines so they could meet the requirements needed to file the I-130. (Have a read around the Philippines forum to see what different people were doing during the pandemic). 

 

USCIS is currently working on I-129Fs submitted April 2021, so if things remain the same you're looking at a year before you reach NVC. And if Manila doesn't clear the backlog in a year you're looking at another 268 days waiting to interview. (worst case scenario). 

 

Compare that to IR1/CR1 visas based on VJ data.

 

https://www.visajourney.com/timeline/k1list.php?op6=All&op66=All&op7=Philippines&op1=3&op2=&dfile=No&op3=5&op4=1&op5=5%2C6%2C8%2C10%2C11%2C13%2C14%2C15%2C16%2C17%2C18%2C20%2C21%2C22%2C25%2C26%2C27%2C28%2C108%2C110%2C111%2C208%2C210%2C211&cfl=0

 

Last 10 visa interviews range from 211- 1112 days. 

And the 1112 day timeline was an F2A to IR1/CR1 case. 

 

The overview VJ gives a person is extremely helpful. But, I always examine individual timelines as you sometimes discover cases that were either extremely quick or very slow have extenuating circumstances (e.g different consulate, change of immigrant status etc). 

 

Good luck on your journey, I hope you're able to see your partner while you wait out this process. 

 

Someone created a website tracking visas issued out of each consulate.

They state Manila has an 18.8 month backlog for K1s and is 0.5 months ahead of schedule for IR1/CR1.

 

http://visawhen.com/consulates/manila/cr1ir1

[GinoNiña 182]

7 hours ago, Kor2USA said:

Do you want to stay with the K1 visa process or are you thinking of moving to IR1/CR1. 

 

Quite a few couples changed from K1 to IR1/CR1 because Manila wasn't issuing visas. They went the Utah marriage route and then met up in the Philippines as the USC spouse could obtain a visa as the family member. Some other couples decided to marry before their first in person meeting and then the USC flew to Philippines so they could meet the requirements needed to file the I-130. (Have a read around the Philippines forum to see what different people were doing during the pandemic). 

 

USCIS is currently working on I-129Fs submitted April 2021, so if things remain the same you're looking at a year before you reach NVC. And if Manila doesn't clear the backlog in a year you're looking at another 268 days waiting to interview. (worst case scenario). 

 

Compare that to IR1/CR1 visas based on VJ data.

 

https://www.visajourney.com/timeline/k1list.php?op6=All&op66=All&op7=Philippines&op1=3&op2=&dfile=No&op3=5&op4=1&op5=5%2C6%2C8%2C10%2C11%2C13%2C14%2C15%2C16%2C17%2C18%2C20%2C21%2C22%2C25%2C26%2C27%2C28%2C108%2C110%2C111%2C208%2C210%2C211&cfl=0

 

Last 10 visa interviews range from 211- 1112 days. 

And the 1112 day timeline was an F2A to IR1/CR1 case. 

 

The overview VJ gives a person is extremely helpful. But, I always examine individual timelines as you sometimes discover cases that were either extremely quick or very slow have extenuating circumstances (e.g different consulate, change of immigrant status etc). 

 

Good luck on your journey, I hope you're able to see your partner while you wait out this process. 

 

Someone created a website tracking visas issued out of each consulate.

They state Manila has an 18.8 month backlog for K1s and is 0.5 months ahead of schedule for IR1/CR1.

 

http://visawhen.com/consulates/manila/cr1ir1

Thanks for your  input. Im in a process of leaning towards cr1 now. I dont mind paying an attorney to help me process my cr1. Im shopping  around for an attorney who specializes in spouse for manila at the moment.

[Redro 4,611]

13 hours ago, GinoNiña said:

Thanks for your  input. Im in a process of leaning towards cr1 now. I dont mind paying an attorney to help me process my cr1. Im shopping  around for an attorney who specializes in spouse for manila at the moment.

You seem fairly competent. 

If you were planning on completing the I-129F process alone I think you'll be able to complete the I-130 process without a lawyer. 

Have a look around the guides and ask questions if you need help. 

VJ is a DIY site so most of us are doing this without paying someone. 

Edited April 13, 2022 by Kor2USA

[Adventine 3,196]

The only reasons I would consider hiring an immigration lawyer would be if the petitioner or beneficiary had some sort of criminal history (ex. previous visa violations). For a straightforward case, I would personally invest the time and money into DIYing the process. Plenty of help available on the VJ forums.

 

A lawyer will not be able to force the embassy to prioritize your spouse's case over everyone else's waiting in line.

[GinoNiña 182]

On 4/12/2022 at 7:24 AM, GinoNiña said:

Thanks for your  input. Im in a process of leaning towards cr1 now. I dont mind paying an attorney to help me process my cr1. Im shopping  around for an attorney who specializes in spouse for manila at the moment.

USCIS is currently working on I-129Fs submitted April 2021, so if things remain the same you're looking at a year before you reach NVC. And if Manila doesn't clear the backlog in a year you're looking at another 268 days waiting to interview. (worst case scenario). So your are saying 1 year plus additional 268 days until her interview date? 

[juezentexas 0]

K1 vs Spouse visa question:  So I flew to the Philippines in early February, just as soon as they opened back up. My fiance and I spent two weeks together.  When I returned, I filed the I-129f form.  We have a March 11, 2022 receipt date at the CSC.  The length of time for processing is shockingly long and depressing.  I can fly back to the Philippines in June or July 2022  and we could get married there, if that would  speed up a visa for her.  (We have known each other a long time and we are more than ready to be married.)

 

What's fastest?  Some of the lingo used here isn't clear to me.  So as they say on reddit "Explain it to me like I was 5." lol.

 

Money, vacation time, flying,  aren't an issue for me, my job is flexible, nor are there any other personal considerations.  I just want to know which is fastest nowadays, Fiance or Spousal visa? Thanks in advance!

[top_secret 2,387]

On 4/12/2022 at 7:24 AM, GinoNiña said:

Thanks for your  input. Im in a process of leaning towards cr1 now. I dont mind paying an attorney to help me process my cr1. Im shopping  around for an attorney who specializes in spouse for manila at the moment.

 

We had to make the choice between CR1 and K1 at the end of 2020 and in our case due to the travel ban at the time, we met and married in Costa Rica and filed for the CR1.  For a few months I was getting ready in parallel for both before I decided to drop the K1 idea and go all in on the CR1.  In hindsight it's certainly one of the best decisions I ever made.  Probably our case represents the absolute best case scenario, where luck was all in our favor and everything went right.  But we filed the i-130 online for the CR1 visa in March of 2021, on our own without a lawyer, based almost entirely on advice obtained right here.  Exactly 7 months later in October 2021 she had visa in hand.  She has been here in the US 6 months already whereas unfortunately there are probably thousands of couples with K-1 applications from 2020 still waiting for interviews.

 

Since with the CR1 visa she arrived as a Permanent Resident from day one, she was able you go out and get a job right away which would not have been possible for like 6 months with a K1 visa.  Because we were married in December 2020 we were able to file a joint tax return for 2020 and 2021 which would not have been possible waiting for a K1 visa and that quite literally made well over $10,000 a year for each of those years in our tax return over me filing as single as I would have had to waiting for a K1 visa.  So that's over $20,000 in tax returns not even considering the fact that CR-1 is cheaper than K1.

 

It would be unreasonably to expect to get as lucky as we did on how fast our case went but in any case CR1 is still likely to be faster than K1 filed in Manila today and the other advantages are huge too..