How to Establish a No-Fly Zone Without Starting World War III

[Boiler 45,717]

If I was him I would ask for the moon as hopefully he could get more elsewhere than he would otherwise. 

 

Jets never made any sense, so a chip that can be thrown away but good PR. I assume that is why Poles offered them to to the US, must have know it was going nowhere so might as well get some bonus points.

[Dashinka 24,629]

12 minutes ago, millefleur said:

Interesting theory there about how if NATO got involved and established a no fly zone, it gives Putin what he wants. Maybe not what we wants, but would certainly vindicate his position that NATO is an aggressive alliance who wants war with Russia.

 

I still don't get why Zelensky is calling it for it. Even NATO today has firmly said: no way. Maybe we'll send some more weapons/defense systems if there's an easy way to do so, but I assume the jets still remain off the table despite Zelensky's wishes.

I think Zelenskyy is doing whatever a leader under attack would do, beg for as much help as possible.  Of course his preparations prior to February 24th are questionable.

Edited March 16, 2022 by Dashinka

[millefleur 5,047]

32 minutes ago, Boiler said:

If I was him I would ask for the moon as hopefully he could get more elsewhere than he would otherwise. 

I understand that but the PR is backfiring on US a bit, makes us look like we're not helping enough. Obviously everyone here understands that but it seems a lot of Ukrainians feel abandoned/left behind by the US. It seems perhaps asking Europe to cut Russia's gas and oil temporarily actually makes more sense to ask for, while it would be bad for their economy it seems maybe less insane than starting a potential nuclear war. Europe in theory could skirt by for some weeks without it which would stop USD flowing into Russia, it would be hard, but possibly doable. Of course "no fly zone" sounds more dramatic than "cut the gas"...might just be the theatricality of the former that Zelensky likes, being from an actor and all. I think Russia is probably more terrified of the gas and oil money drying up overnight than they are of the NFZ.

 

31 minutes ago, Dashinka said:

I think Zelenskyy is doing whatever a leader under attack would do, bring in as much help as possible.  Of course his preparations prior to February 24th are questionable.

It makes sense but I heard someone say in theory Poland or another NATO country could chose to send their own troops in, for example without necessarily triggering Article 5. I wonder why that hasn't been on the table yet, is it just too much of a grey area? It seems in a situation like this having NATO countries all around just complicates matters for a country like Ukraine who isn't a member. I don't get why non-NATO countries like Finland, Sweden or Austria are stepping up to help more?

 

Whatever preparations were made prior to the invasion are certainly questionable, it seems the US DoS was advising him closely about it but I do feel that the US has lead him on to think he would end up getting more help than we were actually prepared to offer. I would be pretty disappointed about that too if I were him.

Edited March 16, 2022 by millefleur

[Mike E 11,741]

7 minutes ago, millefleur said:

I understand that but the PR is backfiring on US a bit, makes us look like we're not helping enough. Obviously everyone here understands that but it seems a lot of Ukrainians feel abandoned/left behind by the US. It seems perhaps asking Europe to cut Russia's gas and oil temporarily actually makes more sense to ask for, while it would be bad for their economy it seems maybe less insane than starting a potential nuclear war.

If America were invaded, I too would expect the government   to set up  a no fly zone  and risk nuclear winter versus seeing my wife and daughter raped and killed.

Any potential invader of America who doesn’t want nuclear winter can say: “you know what, today I’m not going to invade America. Because I don’t want nuclear winter.  Today.”

 

I expect any citizen of any other NATO country would feel the same.  
 

Zelenskyy is making the case that Ukraine is a defacto member of NATO and NATO hasn’t exactly made clear noises to the contrary since 2009.  
 

So he is doing what his people expect him to do.  

[millefleur 5,047]

4 minutes ago, Mike E said:

Zelenskyy is making the case that Ukraine is a defacto member of NATO and NATO hasn’t exactly made clear noises to the contrary since 2009.  

But Ukraine is not a de facto member of NATO and even the DoS made that clear to Zelensky before the invasion, we sent pretty loud and clear signals about not sending troops of getting that level involved.

 

Europe is still paying Russia in USD right now for oil and gas, why not go after that instead? It's pressure he could exert directly on those countries. They can't play the "well, you're not a member of NATO so sorry" card because it's not a NATO question. Just seems like it's time to forget the NATO thing and go after other ways to end this faster, hit Russia where it hurts the absolute most. It won't cause people in Europe to die or disappear overnight if they suddenly don't have oil or gas but it would be a significant blow to Russia, the most significant financial blow possible.

[Mike E 11,741]

23 minutes ago, millefleur said:

It makes sense but I heard someone say in theory Poland or another NATO country could chose to send their own troops in, for example without necessarily triggering Article 5. I wonder why that hasn't been on the table yet,

Why would Poland bleed for this when a Russia hasn’t even threatened to attack Poland? And besides which Russia’s begging for help from  Belarus, Syria, and China suggests that Poland doesn’t need to send boots into Ukraine.  

 

23 minutes ago, millefleur said:

is it just too much of a grey area

Not at all.  
 

* The USA went to Korea, Vietnam, Grenada, Panama, Iraq (twice)

 

* The UK went to the Falklands 

 

* Canada sent warships to stop Spain from fishing off its shores 

 

all without triggering article 5. 

[millefleur 5,047]

5 minutes ago, Mike E said:

And besides which Russia’s begging for help from  Belarus, Syria, and China suggests that Poland doesn’t need to send boots into Ukraine.

So Zelensky asking for a no fly zone is just pure theatrical emoting and nothing more? That's good to know. Maybe we should tell Zelensky that so he can calm down and relax and get some extra sleep he deserves.

[Mike E 11,741]

3 minutes ago, millefleur said:

But Ukraine is not a de facto member of NATO and even the DoS made that clear to Zelensky before the invasion, we sent pretty loud and clear signals about not sending troops of getting that level involved.

Biden implied otherwise.  
 

Listen to https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.dw.com/en/joe-biden-its-one-thing-if-its-a-minor-incursion/av-60495444

 

 

3 minutes ago, millefleur said:

 . It won't cause people in Europe to die

Some will certainly freeze to death.  

3 minutes ago, millefleur said:

 

or disappear overnight if they suddenly don't have oil or gas but it would be a significant blow to Russia, the most significant financial blow possible.

I agree that the rest of Europe could sacrifice more.  It won’t. 
 

So Ukraine has to win this on its own with the west providing ground based weapons and ammo.  

[Dashinka 24,629]

7 minutes ago, millefleur said:

So Zelensky asking for a no fly zone is just pure theatrical emoting and nothing more? That's good to know. Maybe we should tell Zelensky that so he can calm down and relax and get some extra sleep he deserves.

Well, Zelenskyy is an actor by trade, so he does understand the theatrics of what he is doing.  He emoted Churchill when talking to the UK, and MLK here in the US.

[Mike E 11,741]

10 minutes ago, millefleur said:

So Zelensky asking for a no fly zone is just pure theatrical emoting and nothing more? That's good to know. Maybe we should tell Zelensky that so he can calm down and relax and get some extra sleep he deserves.

Nah I’m not going to tell Zelenskyy how to lead his country.  I’m sure DoS and the CIA tell him that each day, and hopefully he has tuned them out. 
 

Listening to DoS and the CIA was a catalyst for this tragedy 

1 minute ago, Dashinka said:

Well, Zelenskyy is an actor by trade, so he does understand the theatrics of what he is doing.  He emoted Churchill when talking to the UK, and MLK here in the US.

“Fake it till you make it”

 

—Winston Churchill, probably.  

Edited March 16, 2022 by Mike E

[millefleur 5,047]

4 minutes ago, Mike E said:

Listening to DoS and the CIA is was a catalyst for this tragedy 

Yeah, which is weird why he still seems to trust the US at this point or even waste time talking to Washington DC at this point....not really following it.

 

18 minutes ago, Mike E said:

I agree that the rest of Europe could sacrifice more.  It won’t. 

Europe never seems to step up, most haven't paid their fair share into NATO and now they don't seem to want to do more to help Ukraine. Really makes me wonder why Ukraine wants such people as allies then. I guess it's a "lesser of two evils" thing?

[Dashinka 24,629]

32 minutes ago, millefleur said:

But Ukraine is not a de facto member of NATO and even the DoS made that clear to Zelensky before the invasion, we sent pretty loud and clear signals about not sending troops of getting that level involved.

 

Europe is still paying Russia in USD right now for oil and gas, why not go after that instead? It's pressure he could exert directly on those countries. They can't play the "well, you're not a member of NATO so sorry" card because it's not a NATO question. Just seems like it's time to forget the NATO thing and go after other ways to end this faster, hit Russia where it hurts the absolute most. It won't cause people in Europe to die or disappear overnight if they suddenly don't have oil or gas but it would be a significant blow to Russia, the most significant financial blow possible.

Our VeeP seemed to indicate the Ukraine is part of NATO.

[millefleur 5,047]

4 minutes ago, Dashinka said:

Our VeeP seemed to indicate the Ukraine is part of NATO.

I heard that, I don't understand why the Ukrainian government trusted our government in the first place, to be honest. I don't know what they were expecting or hoping for. Just a sad situation all around.

[Mike E 11,741]

26 minutes ago, millefleur said:

Yeah, which is weird why he still seems to trust the US at this point or even waste time talking to Washington DC at this point....not really following it.

Zelenskyy is a professional entertainer and apparently was successful at it before politics. 
 

Entertainers play to their fans.  
 

He has 5.4 million followers on Twitter.  I suspect most are from NATO countries. 
 

When he asks for a no fly zone, voters among his fan base demand a no fly zone for Ukraine from their politicians.  Politicians ask their generals. The generals tell them it is a stupid idea. The politicians then ask “well what can we do”. And it turns what is being done must be quite a lot if Putin is begging for ISIS rejects from Syria to fight his battles.  
 

26 minutes ago, millefleur said:

 

Europe never seems to step up, most haven't paid their fair share into NATO and now they don't seem to want to do more to help Ukraine. Really makes me wonder why Ukraine wants such people as allies then. I guess it's a "lesser of two evils" thing?

Better allies aren’t available.  

[Dashinka 24,629]

12 minutes ago, Mike E said:

Zelenskyy is a professional entertainer and apparently was successful at it before politics. 
 

Entertainers play to their fans.  
 

He has 5.4 million followers on Twitter.  I suspect most are from NATO countries. 
 

When he asks for a no fly zone, voters among his fan base demand a no fly zone for Ukraine from their politicians.  Politicians ask their generals. The generals tell them it is a stupid idea. The politicians then ask “well what can we do”. And it turns what is being done must be quite a lot if Putin is begging for ISIS rejects from Syria to fight his battles.  
 

Better allies aren’t available.  

I also suspect most of them are women.