Success rate...

[denali_1963 0]

I wonder how they measure that people left, probably just by counting the I-94s;

Yes... they also try to match the admission number, first letter of last name and date of birth.

And that begs a question: does a K-1 holder who applied for AOS and AP keep his/her original I-94 ?

If yes, then anyone going for a short trip abroad after getting AP would have to surrender tha I-94 and be counted as "having left the US within xxx months". That would also make those percentages look a LOT more realistic.

Bartek

The article stated that the data is derived from I-94 that they collected in POE and also matching first & last names + birthdate. And they did this to all kind of visas. The percentage of people that left US within certain period of time does not indicate anything other than what it said. People that entered US with K1/K3 and left within 6 months does NOT mean that their marriage failed. It just said that they left between 0-6 months after their entrance as K1/K3 holder, nothing more nothing less, nothing to do with their marriage nor relationships. People can leave for many reasons: visiting families back home, vacations, etc. And it's also possible that they left with their spouses or partners

Conclusion: These numbers do not correlate with the success rate of their relationships whatsoever.

I was also thinking that wouldn't the numbers for the k-3 be higher becouse they can leave and re enter the country within a year. But with a k-1 visa they would have to wait longer to get ajusted. Maybe i am wrong.

[Jasman0717 9]

I just found these stats, supposedly from USCIS, for 2003

3889 K-1's (fiancée) entered the USA

54.0% left the USA within 6 months

28.2% left between 6 months to one year

17.7% lasted more than one year

1546 K-3 (spouse) entered the USA

70.3% left the USA within 6 months

22.6% left between 6 months to one year

7.1 % lasted more than one year

What do these mean exactly? Maybe the beneficiary got AP and went for a visit. I don't see any stats tracking if any of these returned. Maybe they all returned

[Fischkoepfin 1]

I wonder how they measure that people left, probably just by counting the I-94s;

Yes... they also try to match the admission number, first letter of last name and date of birth.

And that begs a question: does a K-1 holder who applied for AOS and AP keep his/her original I-94 ?

If yes, then anyone going for a short trip abroad after getting AP would have to surrender tha I-94 and be counted as "having left the US within xxx months". That would also make those percentages look a LOT more realistic.

Bartek

The article stated that the data is derived from I-94 that they collected in POE and also matching first & last names + birthdate. And they did this to all kind of visas. The percentage of people that left US within certain period of time does not indicate anything other than what it said. People that entered US with K1/K3 and left within 6 months does NOT mean that their marriage failed. It just said that they left between 0-6 months after their entrance as K1/K3 holder, nothing more nothing less, nothing to do with their marriage nor relationships. People can leave for many reasons: visiting families back home, vacations, etc. And it's also possible that they left with their spouses or partners

Conclusion: These numbers do not correlate with the success rate of their relationships whatsoever.

I was also thinking that wouldn't the numbers for the k-3 be higher becouse they can leave and re enter the country within a year. But with a k-1 visa they would have to wait longer to get ajusted. Maybe i am wrong.

zigzaggly!

[brtlmj 0]

The article stated that the data is derived from I-94 that they collected in POE and also matching first & last names + birthdate.

Admission number, first letter of last name and date of birth. No first name, no full last name. The "and" suggests that all three must match.

And they did this to all kind of visas. The percentage of people that left US within certain period of time does not indicate anything other than what it said.

Let me repeat my question: does a K-1 holder, after filing for AOS and getting AP, keep his/her original I-94 ? If not, then one would have to leave without filing for AOS in order to be counted. And that would be a strong indicator of a failed marriage.

Bartek

[Garfield fan 0]

Let me repeat my question: does a K-1 holder, after filing for AOS and getting AP, keep his/her original I-94 ?

Not sure about K1, but when I file for AOS I didn't surrender my I-94. They took it during the AOS interview, NOT when I filed it. If I left US before I got my AOS approved, then I believe I will have to surrender this I-94 at POE and when I returned, they will give me a new one.

If not, then one would have to leave without filing for AOS in order to be counted. And that would be a strong indicator of a failed marriage.

Care to explain how you come into this conclusion ??

My understanding is:

- K1/K3 enter US --> get I-94

- K1/K3 file for AOS --> still have I-94 with them

- K1/k3 with AOS pending, leaving the country for visit or vacation or other reasons --> surrender

their I-94 at POE --> counted

-K1/K3 with AOS pending, left the country for the above reasons and came back --> get

get new I-94

- K1/K3 left US before filing AOS due to family emergency and planning to go back ---> surrender I-94

--> counted

- K1/K3 left US because of relationship failure --> surrender I-94 --> counted

Based on that, my conclusion is the number they counted consists of many different reason of people leaving the US, and it's impossible to tell how many percents of them are in the last category.

[brtlmj 0]

Care to explain how you come into this conclusion ??

My understanding is:

- K1/K3 enter US --> get I-94

- K1/K3 file for AOS --> still have I-94 with them

- K1/k3 with AOS pending, leaving the country for visit or vacation or other reasons --> surrender

their I-94 at POE --> counted

-K1/K3 with AOS pending, left the country for the above reasons and came back --> get

get new I-94

- K1/K3 left US before filing AOS due to family emergency and planning to go back ---> surrender I-94

--> counted

- K1/K3 left US because of relationship failure --> surrender I-94 --> counted

Based on that, my conclusion is the number they counted consists of many different reason of people leaving the US, and it's impossible to tell how many percents of them are in the last category.

If a K-1 holder had to surrender the I-94 while applying for AOS, then there would be just two possible reasons - family emergency and failed marriage. I think we can reasonably estimate that emergencies of this magnitude are rather rare. This would mean that majority of K-1s leaving the States do it because of divorce.

Now, if a K-1 keeps his/her I-94 until the AOS interview, that adds another possibility - simple trips abroad, for any reason. In this case, I fully agree that a great majority of K-1s leaving the States would fall into this category. That would also make me feel much better

Bartek

[Jaylen Brit 0]

Of course the whole thing maybe be SOLEY about US/Russian marriages as it was on that website..

I tend to agree with Mrs Bruce tho - agendas anyone?

[Jenn! 918]

Of course the whole thing maybe be SOLEY about US/Russian marriages as it was on that website..

I tend to agree with Mrs Bruce tho - agendas anyone?

No, it's not just about US/Russian marriages. The site warning against Russian scams used the statistics from USCIS, but toally out of context.

http://uscis.gov/graphics/shared/statistic...stNonim2003.pdf

[onwa 6]

somebody with extra time should try and track VJ successes and divorces. Now that would be an interesting statistic.