Success rate...

[KarenCee 3]

I would tend to agree with the above statement, but I think its not just for internet meetings, it happens to those meeting in person for the first time as well.

There are definitely those who do it right with the internet, meet someone online and then develop a real relationship, talking all the time, visiting, really getting to know each other. And there are others who base life-changing decisions on limited knowledge of their partners, whether met online or in person.

Agreed. Which is what Joel and I have been doing for the last two years. So we're not bothered at all by such stats. They're just numbers.

[Chuckles 0]

Doesn't surprise me in the least. Just like others have said, having a relationship on the internet, then actually having to live together are two different things.

If those stats are correct, it could also prove just how many of these are immigration fraud, and why those of us who are legit have to jump through hoops.

I just dont get the "see a pretty picture on the internet and pick out a life partner" mentality.

Those stats are not correct I've seen stats posted somewhere that completly contradict those.

But anyway, I agree with your statement. However, it should be noted that the internet is a place to meet people just the same as a public place such as a bar, coffee shop, work, grocery market, etc etc (list your favorite traditional meeting place here). I sincerly do not believe many people are getting married simply after having the initial meeting with someone. Even those who first met on the internet are eventually meeting in person and develop a relationship before the marriage proposal.

I think the real drag on the system is not immigration fraud, but fear of criminal behaivor by the immigrant. The background checks and name hits really bog things down. But its worth it in the end for everyone's safety.

[denali_1963 0]

Doesn't surprise me in the least. Just like others have said, having a relationship on the internet, then actually having to live together are two different things.

If those stats are correct, it could also prove just how many of these are immigration fraud, and why those of us who are legit have to jump through hoops.

I just dont get the "see a pretty picture on the internet and pick out a life partner" mentality.

Those stats are not correct I've seen stats posted somewhere that completly contradict those.

But anyway, I agree with your statement. However, it should be noted that the internet is a place to meet people just the same as a public place such as a bar, coffee shop, work, grocery market, etc etc (list your favorite traditional meeting place here). I sincerly do not believe many people are getting married simply after having the initial meeting with someone. Even those who first met on the internet are eventually meeting in person and develop a relationship before the marriage proposal.

I think the real drag on the system is not immigration fraud, but fear of criminal behaivor by the immigrant. The background checks and name hits really bog things down. But its worth it in the end for everyone's safety.

yes i agree.I think the internet is a wonderfull place to meet people. You can say whats on your mind and not have to face the person. I believe you can get to know each other better than u could in real person. One reason sex is not involved . You are forced to talk about your feelings instead of sex. Bar is not good place i tend to ignore men that i am attracted to in person but on computer state my feelings better. Some poeple are really shy and not appoach persons like they would on computer.

[MrMrsKnight 0]

I would tend to agree with the above statement, but I think its not just for internet meetings, it happens to those meeting in person for the first time as well.

There are definitely those who do it right with the internet, meet someone online and then develop a real relationship, talking all the time, visiting, really getting to know each other. And there are others who base life-changing decisions on limited knowledge of their partners, whether met online or in person.

Agreed. Which is what Joel and I have been doing for the last two years. So we're not bothered at all by such stats. They're just numbers.

Dave and I met online and that gave us time to talk A LOT about stuff .... talking was all we had and I'm glad we did a lot of it! When we finally met in person we already knew so much about each other.....

And yeah.... i couldn't care less about stats.... they're indeed just numbers!

[Kajikit 65]

Those stats sound pretty fishy to me... sure we've seen a lot of relationships fall by the wayside on VJ, but it's nowhere near 50%. I'd say it's more like 20 or 25%, which is pretty much the failure rate of a regular 'both-parties-in-the-same-place' engagement/marriage!

Are we that unusual a subset of immigrants? Or are those stats 'rigged' to create a scare-story?

[Jenn! 918]

Those stats sound pretty fishy to me... sure we've seen a lot of relationships fall by the wayside on VJ, but it's nowhere near 50%. I'd say it's more like 20 or 25%, which is pretty much the failure rate of a regular 'both-parties-in-the-same-place' engagement/marriage!

Are we that unusual a subset of immigrants? Or are those stats 'rigged' to create a scare-story?

I would agree. I also can't immagine that DHS would continue to issue K visas based on those stats...

And as I mentioned before, those stats were taken from a site warning against visa scams worked by Russian women...

Edited April 3, 2006 by jenn3539

[TracyTN 237]

I just found these stats, supposedly from USCIS, for 2003

"Supposedly" exactly. I can't find USCIS support for these. The stats as posted are from a site warning about Russian women immigration scams.

Don't forget what Jenn found.

This changes the context of these figures a bit.

[Jaylen Brit 0]

I don't belive the quoted stats - 54% failure rate??

No way. I can't see it being much higher than the normal divorce rate for couples meeting in the same country. So I DO think it'd be higher than so-called normal, but not by much.

[Trompe le Monde 1,107]

My guess if there is any accuracy at all to those stats, that it accounts for people leaving on AP

[MrsBruce5 0]

Hi All,

When I was in college, I had a wonderful professor who always told me to LOOK VERY CLOSELY at whom is putting out statistics, there is ALWAYS an agenda.

When we hear the word "statistic"-it makes most of us think that it's something official or important, but we rarely look at who is feeding the information to the reader.

Perfect example: An statistic I saw for milk-stating that children who drink milk grow an average of .25 inches more per year than children who don't drink milk.

Who put out this information for the public??? The American Dairy Farmers Association. It was in a little tiny text at the bottom of the left hand side of the page, thrown in with a bunch of other things.

My point here is-when you see a stat, consider the source before taking what you see as gospel. The source always will gain benefit from putting out such information.

As far as the stats for K visa's-NONSENSE...I don't believe that for a second.

Have a good day all !

-Rose

Edited April 4, 2006 by MrsBruce5

[Jenn! 918]

I hunted down the original source of these statistics. http://uscis.gov/graphics/shared/statistic...stNonim2003.pdf

As others and myself have speculated, they are not relevant to the original question, that is the success rate of K1 and K3 marriages.

Instead they come from a table that records:

"Length of Visit of Expected Long-Term Residents Who Departed During Fiscal Year 2003, by Class of Admission". In other words, this means that 3889 people who entered on a K1 left the U.S. in 2003. Of those, 54% left within 6 months of entry, etc.

Hope this clarifies...

I just found these stats, supposedly from USCIS, for 2003

3889 K-1's (fiancée) entered the USA

54.0% left the USA within 6 months

28.2% left between 6 months to one year

17.7% lasted more than one year

1546 K-3 (spouse) entered the USA

70.3% left the USA within 6 months

22.6% left between 6 months to one year

7.1 % lasted more than one year

Edited April 4, 2006 by jenn3539

[Fischkoepfin 1]

I wonder how they measure that people left, probably just by counting the I-94s; I've never seen anyone taking count of which visa-holders leave at what point after receiving the visa (too much hassle for the airlines). That of course would mean that the same people could have entered again, but we wouldn't know about it because they would have received a new I-94.

Of course the number is higher for people on K-3 because K-3 is a multiple-entry visa that is valid for 2 years unless AOS has been approved.

I honestly don't think that the divorce rate for K3 is 93% for the first year. That's totally unrealistic. I also don't believe that 83% of K1-relationships fail, even if people have met on the internet. It's not like internet-fiance(e)s are that unable to maintain relationships despite what people might claim.

[TracyTN 237]

Thanks Jenn. I quoted your initial post above doubting the voracity of the results, but no one seemed to pay attention!

[brtlmj 0]

I wonder how they measure that people left, probably just by counting the I-94s;

Yes... they also try to match the admission number, first letter of last name and date of birth.

And that begs a question: does a K-1 holder who applied for AOS and AP keep his/her original I-94 ?

If yes, then anyone going for a short trip abroad after getting AP would have to surrender tha I-94 and be counted as "having left the US within xxx months". That would also make those percentages look a LOT more realistic.

Bartek

[Garfield fan 0]

I wonder how they measure that people left, probably just by counting the I-94s;

Yes... they also try to match the admission number, first letter of last name and date of birth.

And that begs a question: does a K-1 holder who applied for AOS and AP keep his/her original I-94 ?

If yes, then anyone going for a short trip abroad after getting AP would have to surrender tha I-94 and be counted as "having left the US within xxx months". That would also make those percentages look a LOT more realistic.

Bartek

The article stated that the data is derived from I-94 that they collected in POE and also matching first & last names + birthdate. And they did this to all kind of visas. The percentage of people that left US within certain period of time does not indicate anything other than what it said. People that entered US with K1/K3 and left within 6 months does NOT mean that their marriage failed. It just said that they left between 0-6 months after their entrance as K1/K3 holder, nothing more nothing less, nothing to do with their marriage nor relationships. People can leave for many reasons: visiting families back home, vacations, etc. And it's also possible that they left with their spouses or partners

Conclusion: These numbers do not correlate with the success rate of their relationships whatsoever.