USCIS waiting times are "ranges" but no one's case gets processed in the lower range time.

[eddie32 0]

I'm a bit confused on the wait time range.  The website says 50% of applicants get processed by the lower wait time boundary but as far as I can tell almost all cases are being processed by the upper wait time boundary currently for fiance visas.  How are they able to say 50% get processed by the lower wait time or am I missing something?

[powerpuff 6,704]

~ Topic moved from K1 Process to Progress Reports ~
 

Who is they exactly? As far as I know official USCIS website doesn’t give ranges like that. 
 

[Lil bear 4,217]

9 minutes ago, powerpuff said:

~ Topic moved from K1 Process to Progress Reports ~
 

Who is they exactly? As far as I know official USCIS website doesn’t give ranges like that. 
 

https://egov.uscis.gov/processing-times/
 

entering the form number and processing location gives the time range that OP is referring to.  
 @eddie32   The info  from vj members is not really able to be interpreted as representative of  the processing rates of the whole immigration applicants population. . We  are just a small window into that whole group.

Edited March 1, 2022 by Lil bear

[eddie32 0]

17 minutes ago, Lil bear said:

https://egov.uscis.gov/processing-times/
 

entering the form number and processing location gives the time range that OP is referring to.  
 @eddie32   The info  from vj members is not really able to be interpreted as representative of  the processing rates of the whole immigration applicants population. . We  are just a small window into that whole group.

I understand we are just a small window but it seems inaccurate.  For example, the processing time for i-129f is 9-12 months.  They say this means 50% are processed at 9 months and 92% are processed at 12 months (https://egov.uscis.gov/processing-times/more-info -> Scroll to "Estimated Time Range").  If you look at the spreadsheet from the May 2021 filers (approximately 10 months ago) from people that are using the USCIS phone app 92% of them are unprocessed: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1bYbU6iImqwTZCF2awJ5_IEPxH7IhON8do1YlMlhytAI/edit?usp=sharing.  

Edited March 1, 2022 by eddie32

[iwannaplay54 985]

It’s still a subset

[TheJs 34]

In general, it can be more helpful and accurate to just keep track of the true rate of approvals through the various excel sheets and the USCIS case tracker app. The case estimation time does help with when you can put in an inquiry and know when your case is truly out of the norm, though.

[powerpuff 6,704]

54 minutes ago, Lil bear said:

entering the form number and processing location gives the time range that OP is referring to.  

Gotcha, I see that now.
 

I do feel it’s quite generic and I wouldn’t rely on that. I really doubt USCIS does in-depth research on these processing ranges 

[eddie32 0]

37 minutes ago, iwannaplay54 said:

It’s still a subset

If it's not representative of filers as a whole then there must be a special group that gets processed faster.  Or the processing time range is just inaccurate.  

[Lil bear 4,217]

59 minutes ago, eddie32 said:

If it's not representative of filers as a whole then there must be a special group that gets processed faster.  Or the processing time range is just inaccurate.  

I imagine this is generated simply by the data tracked inside USCIS… i don't imagine there is anyone in USCIS who has time to skew data … are some applications more straightforward ? Probably.   My N400 application had a range of 7.5-13 months on the USCIS web site. Submitted June 20 2021… interview and approval Dec 16 2021. 6 months. 

[SalishSea 17,834]

5 hours ago, eddie32 said:

If it's not representative of filers as a whole then there must be a special group that gets processed faster.  Or the processing time range is just inaccurate.  

Maybe the straightforward petitions with good evidence and not thousands of photos and chat logs to wade through?

 

If there is, USCIS has never disclosed it.  The vast majority of VJ members will be approved around the "average" current processing time.

[Rocio0010 5,579]

6 hours ago, eddie32 said:

If it's not representative of filers as a whole then there must be a special group that gets processed faster.  Or the processing time range is just inaccurate.  

Processing times are just Bs and they just keep playing with them so that, when you file a SR for an outside of processing times, they can throw you a “it’s still under normal processing times”. 
Just bureaucracy.

[Letspaintcookies 2,310]

With my K1 I was one of the 50% and from what I remember many in my January group back then, too. But that's been a while now

[JD2 72]

Form I-129F (and I-130) still uses the cycle time methodology to calculate those ranges.  They are NOT 50% and 93%.  They can help you estimate the receipt date for a case inquiry (if you use the larger number).  https://egov.uscis.gov/processing-times/more-info  But even if they did start using processing time methodology, those figures are based on the past 6 months of adjudications.  Past performance does not guarantee future results.  Circumstances change.

Edited March 2, 2022 by JD2

[Mary1014 9]

11 hours ago, eddie32 said:

I understand we are just a small window but it seems inaccurate.  For example, the processing time for i-129f is 9-12 months.  They say this means 50% are processed at 9 months and 92% are processed at 12 months (https://egov.uscis.gov/processing-times/more-info -> Scroll to "Estimated Time Range").  If you look at the spreadsheet from the May 2021 filers (approximately 10 months ago) from people that are using the USCIS phone app 92% of them are unprocessed: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1bYbU6iImqwTZCF2awJ5_IEPxH7IhON8do1YlMlhytAI/edit?usp=sharing.  

Where did you find this spreadsheet? İs there any spreadsheets for other months? 

[eddie32 0]

10 hours ago, Mary1014 said:

Where did you find this spreadsheet? İs there any spreadsheets for other months? 

The spreadsheet is from the monthly k1 groups (you can google "may 2021 k1 visajourney" and you will find it)