Why are we rushing to defend Ukraine? [merged threads]

[Pooky 3,780]

1 hour ago, Dashinka said:

I was more referring to China and India supporting Russia financially.  I do wonder when Zelenskyy will start asking for manpower from the US/West.

 

Yes, the US government intelligence agencies are out of control.  History repeats itself.

Right now, China and India are not on good terms and haven’t been for quite some time, so it would likely be a case of one or the other, not both.

 

India, I would suggest is less likely to do so, as they are courting the West more for the military hardware they don’t manufacture in-country. Support Russia and that goes away in a hurry.

 

China is the more likely benefactor, but they have their own problems. The economy there is facing a massive correction, and they may not want to invest in an unpopular war in Europe, when their own focus is Taiwan.

 

Iran, on the other hand, has no such qualms and the US has paid them significant sums of money in the recent past. What better way to thumb their nose at “The Great Satan”?

Edited September 2, 2023 by Pooky

[Mike E 11,739]

3 hours ago, Dashinka said:

I was more referring to China and India supporting Russia financially.

If Vlad can convince countries as underdeveloped  as India to send cash, then he is the second coning of Jesus H Christ

[Mike E 11,739]

Robotyne has fallen. If Tokmak, 15 miles to the south falls, Russia will lose  a useful rail transfer station and the the goal of retaking Crimea becomes less unrealistic. And Tokmak is now in artillery range. So if Ukraine stalls, it can destroy the rail links and the one road into Tokmal that can carry heavy equipment. 

 

https://12ft.io/proxy?q=https%3A%2F%2Fhotair.com%2Fjohn-s-2%2F2023%2F08%2F31%2Fukraine-has-taken-robotyne-and-crossed-russias-first-line-of-defense-n575131

 

 

[TBoneTX 45,251]

Watch Out:  Beltway Insiders Are Using Percentage Math To Support Ukraine

 

It is an old Washington trick. If the dollar amount sounds too hard to sell, use percentages, such as percent of GDP or percent of a department's budget etc.

Former South Carolina Governor Nikki Haley tried it during the first GOP debate [...]

 

https://tippinsights.com/watch-out-beltway-insiders-are-using-percentage-math-to-support-ukraine/

[Mike E 11,739]

Not sure I understand why percentage math is not valid. The level of support to Ukraine is a rounding error to the U.S. yet would cripple Lichtenstein. 
 

Another interesting read, 

https://12ft.io/proxy?q=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.telegraph.co.uk%2Fbusiness%2F2023%2F09%2F03%2Fwhy-russia-putin-war-turning-ukraine-favour%2F%3Fli_source%3DLI%26li_medium%3Dliftigniter-rhr
 

The Ukrainians have gone one better than the Russians, who use Iranian-made Shahed “suicide” drones costing $20,000 apiece, by deploying disposable drones made of cardboard or foam costing just £2,750 each.

These Australian SYPAQ drones are as easy to assemble as an Ikea flatpack, but they are so small and coated with radar-absorbent materials that escape detection by Russian air defence.

 

[…]

 

Defeatists will reply: so what? Nazi Germany was pulverised from the air by thousand-bomber raids for three years, but did not surrender until the Allies occupied it. Imperial Japan held out until atom bombs annihilated Hiroshima and Nagasaki. Putin’s Russia won’t be beaten by drones or rockets alone.

No – but Putin’s regime lacks either the lethal discipline of Hitler’s Germany or the ritualised fanaticism of Hirohito’s Japan. Nor does the Russian leader have a Goebbels to whip up the Russians into a frenzy of enthusiasm for total war.

 

Zelensky should sell NFTs for each SYPAQ drone, offering a pre-deployment auction for some  drones and a post-deployment auction for those that score hits.

Edited September 3, 2023 by Mike E

[TBoneTX 45,251]

10 hours ago, Mike E said:

Not sure I understand why percentage math is not valid

The point is that they're obfuscating the actual dollar number that people can better relate to.

[TBoneTX 45,251]

Are 500,000 dead and wounded in Ukraine enough?  Apparently not.

 

[...] Do those calling for Ukraine to continually march into the teeth of the Russian war machine have a maximum number of Ukrainians in mind who can be slaughtered before they say, "You know, maybe we have to rethink our strategy"?  [...]

 

https://thehill.com/opinion/international/4183244-are-500000-dead-and-wounded-in-ukraine-enough-apparently-not/

[Mike E 11,739]

Yes a world leader previously said:
 

My own preference is a proposition of an armistice for six months, with the Black Sea ports open to the commerce of the world. This would put a stop to the effusion of blood, and hostilities would probably never be resumed. We can urge it on the high grounds of humanity and the interest of the whole civilised world. If it be refused by the Ukraine, it will afford good reason for recognition, and perhaps for more active intervention.

 

——

 

Oops. The above was said by the Emperor of France, in 1862, about Southern ports and potential Union refusal to reject a European demand for a ceasefire.

 

Not America’s business to tell Ukraine to concede territory.

 

By all means, tell Europe the money supply to Ukraine is ending (especially when these hypocrites continue to import Russian LNG). But Americans didn’t cotton to European interference into its affairs in the 18th, 19th, 20th, or 21st centuries, and we should not be interfering in Ukraine’s affairs. Let their men fight for their country, as American men fought for theirs in 1776, 1812, and 1862.

[Boiler 45,445]

It is very difficult to come up with casualty numbers, the BBC has been counting new graves, announcements etc but the one I liked was where a statistical analysis was done on inheritance claims, Russia has not been conscripting women so the surge in cases which were pretty much all male could be reasonably related to the war.

 

From memory that was 47,000 but it was sometimes ago.

 

Also interesting was the geographical spread, most were not Moscow etc but the provinces, also the Demographics had changed from a 22 year old professional to a 31 year old conscript.

 

The true number will never be known, Russia does not release that sort of thing

[TBoneTX 45,251]

7 minutes ago, Boiler said:

the surge in cases which were pretty much all male could be reasonably related to the war.

If the coronavirus was present during their autopsies, they died of Covid-1984.

[Boiler 45,445]

1 minute ago, TBoneTX said:

If the coronavirus was present during their autopsies, they died of Covid-1984.

I think they had used similar analysis on COVID deaths, being hit by a 155mm shell vs testing positive.

 

Here they had women as a control group.

 

I think in Russia you only have so long to file a claim or it goes to the State.

[Mike E 11,739]

I am convinced that Ukraine is winning the kill ratio.
 

The Ukrainian commanders have better Western arms, and they are in the same position as Bill Slim who commanded the allied efforts in Burma in WW2: they know they are not going to have troops replaced as fast as the enemy.
 

Slim managed

a 100 to 1 kill ratio.

 

Ukraine is still at 2-3 to 1, but it will get there, since it has an greater technological advantage than Slim had.

 

 

 

[Pooky 3,780]

8 minutes ago, Mike E said:

I am convinced that Ukraine is winning the kill ratio.
 

The Ukrainian commanders have better Western arms, and they are in the same position as Bill Slim who commanded the allied efforts in Burma in WW2: they know they are not going to have troops replaced as fast as the enemy.
 

Slim managed

a 100 to 1 kill ratio.

 

Ukraine is still at 2-3 to 1, but it will get there, since it has an greater technological advantage than Slim had.

 

 

 

What Ukraine lacks is decent air support. Even with the amateur hour farce that is Russian air tactics, the lack of any kind of sustained battlefield air support is making things difficult for Ukraine.

[TBoneTX 45,251]

5 minutes ago, Pooky said:

sustained battlefield air support

Ask Bidementia, and they shall receive.

[Mike E 11,739]

1 hour ago, Pooky said:

What Ukraine lacks is decent air support. Even with the amateur hour farce that is Russian air tactics, the lack of any kind of sustained battlefield air support is making things difficult for Ukraine.

 

Putin really should have waited until after the world finished replacing all its  F-16s with F-35s

 

Instead of figuring out to make 1000s of F-16s sitting in boneyards airworthy.

 

I believe there are over 4000 F-16s still air worthy. So that will give Ukraine the most powerful air force in the world.