Why are we rushing to defend Ukraine? [merged threads]

[Pooky 3,821]

1 hour ago, Ban Hammer said:

someone will have the idea to give them our a-10's.............

Now that is not a bad idea at all. It’s not like they’re being withdrawn for fatigue life reasons, the USAF brass just want more F-35 Thunderpigs. And the Warthog can take abuse even a naval aviator can only dream about dishing out.

 

And that gun …

 

 

[Dashinka 24,642]

1 hour ago, Pooky said:

Now that is not a bad idea at all. It’s not like they’re being withdrawn for fatigue life reasons, the USAF brass just want more F-35 Thunderpigs. And the Warthog can take abuse even a naval aviator can only dream about dishing out.

 

And that gun …

 

 

That gun certainly makes a distinctive sound.

[Nature Boy 2.0 8,376]

18 hours ago, millefleur said:

He just keeps playing his role and reading his lines like the actor he is. He's doing all he can in that sense.

 

They need air cover but it's basically impossible for them to get it is my understanding. They lack equipment and trained men. F-16's are not going to give them the air dominance they need, will just help a bit. Obviously it's better than nothing but will it be enough? Probably not. The mine clearing ops are extremely difficult under enemy fire.

 

It's definitely not going as well as they would like. I don't think it's a complete failure in that they have not given up, but they have not gone beyond the 1st defensive line (so I last heard.)

I haven't really followed it like some of you have, but didn't most think Russia would wrap it up in a few days? What does this say about Russian military dominance?  Just asking. 

[millefleur 5,047]

3 minutes ago, Nature Boy 2.0 said:

I haven't really followed it like some of you have, but didn't most think Russia would wrap it up in a few days? What does this say about Russian military dominance?  Just asking. 

The general assumption was that it would be over quickly. The reality is nobody really knew what the Kremlin had in mind and it's more and more apparent that they never wanted to conquer Ukraine but now they're kind of stuck in this war that they acted on. But for reference most people now speculate that the Kremlin was betting on a Georgia 2008 scenario. They had poor intel and did not realize the Ukrainians would fight back so hard. Ukraine also didn't think Russia would invade, so lots of missed assumptions and now we have this mess. 

[Mike E 11,741]

1 hour ago, millefleur said:

But for reference most people now speculate that the Kremlin was betting on a Georgia 2008 scenario

In terms of NATO interests, the Russian army in Georgia at worst threatens only Turkey, and Russia is not going to risk access  to the Bosporus. So there was no W was going to send weapons to Georgia to kill his buddy Vlad’s soldiers. 

 

Vlad underestimated how many enemies he made inside the CIA and MI6 when he invade Ukraine. Greatest failure of intel since W invaded Iraq.

[millefleur 5,047]

8 minutes ago, Mike E said:

Vlad underestimated how many enemies he made inside the CIA and MI6 when he invade Ukraine. Greatest failure of intel since W invaded Iraq.

 

Pretty much. To this day I still don't think Putin is fully aware of what is going on.

[millefleur 5,047]

 

[TBoneTX 45,649]

Is Yevgeny Prigozhin dead?  Some think it's probably true

 

[...] The one thing we do know is that nobody has managed to get him on camera in a while.  That's simply suspicious, and [...]

 

https://hotair.com/jazz-shaw/2023/07/12/is-yevgeny-prigozhin-dead-some-think-its-probably-true-n564148

[millefleur 5,047]

23 minutes ago, TBoneTX said:

Is Yevgeny Prigozhin dead?  Some think it's probably true

 

I haven't heard anything yet about Prigo. But Surovikin's disappearance is actually more unsettling and people are beginning to wonder about that. (Even though the Kremlin says he's fine, he still hasn't been seen.) 

 

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/jul/13/missing-russian-general-with-links-to-wagner-boss-is-resting-says-official

 

To be honest, Prigo is kind of expendable. If he ends up dead nobody will be shocked. But Surovikin is considered a competent and committed person (kind of rare in the Kremlin these days...) so if he ends up dead it will cause much more disquiet. 

[TBoneTX 45,649]

Exhaustive update/analysis.  Comments?

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

Putin's War, Week 72. Ukraine Misses NATO Membership but Still Wins and Ground Combat Gains Velocity

 

https://redstate.com/streiff/2023/07/14/putins-war-week-72-ukraine-misses-nato-membership-but-still-wins-and-ground-combat-gains-velocity-n774612

[TBoneTX 45,649]

Zelensky Activates 3,000 U.S. Military Reservists

 

KYIV — Casualties continue to mount in the ongoing Ukraine-Russia conflict, causing Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky to make the decision to call up 3,000 U.S. military reserve soldiers.  [...]

 

https://babylonbee.com/news/zelensky-activates-3000-us-military-reservists

[Mike E 11,741]

10 hours ago, TBoneTX said:

Exhaustive update/analysis.  Comments?

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

Putin's War, Week 72. Ukraine Misses NATO Membership but Still Wins and Ground Combat Gains Velocity

 

https://redstate.com/streiff/2023/07/14/putins-war-week-72-ukraine-misses-nato-membership-but-still-wins-and-ground-combat-gains-velocity-n774612

“But more important than what Ukraine did or didn’t get, we’re beginning to see a fault line develop between the US and Germany, on the one hand, and the rest of NATO on the other.  See more of my analysis here: NATO Summit Highlights NATO Unity on Ukraine but Also Reveals Divisions.“

Putin should take the win. In the long run, Europe can fall to Russia if Russia is patient.

[millefleur 5,047]

Ukraine doesn't have much more time left weatherwise, summer is fleeting each day. Will they make enough gains before September? The front line has barely budged. So many people love the WW2 Churchill-Hitler comparisons but this whole war is basically WW1 with drones. 

[Boiler 45,739]

Nice update on the Kerch Bridge

 

 

[millefleur 5,047]