Why are we rushing to defend Ukraine? [merged threads]

[Dashinka 24,629]

49 minutes ago, millefleur said:

Yes but it's actually already happening. The new scramble for Africa is China mining stuff like cobalt and other resources needed for tech/batteries. I recently saw a depressing but very good documentary about that. Colbat is essential for lithium batteries for electric cars, so there's another incident of "greenwashing" that nobody wants to talk about.

 

 

 

Yep, “green”, and to reduce the cobalt in the batteries, they are turning to nickel and manganese.  So many people think EVs are so environmentally friendly, being ignorant of what has to be done to get the mass of the minerals needed for these things.  When you mention that to a true “greenie” their response is almost always ‘we will just recycle the batteries’, of course knowing nothing about how much energy it takes to recover these minerals which is usually much more expensive than mining for new.  For some reason they think batteries are built to easily separate.  Anyway, this is a little off topic, except for the fact that Russia is a major supplier of nickel.

 

https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/how-nickel-is-replacing-cobalt-in-electric-vehicles-idtechex-reveals-301149643.html

Edited March 15, 2022 by Dashinka

[millefleur 5,047]

7 minutes ago, Dashinka said:

Anyway, this is a little off topic, except for the fact that Russia is a major supplier of nickel.

Exactly.....so, sanction issues again which might blowback and hit us in the face, should we opt for that.

 

Russia Can Hold Nickel Hostage

When Republicans talk about securing America’s “energy independence,” they mean pumping more oil. When Democrats do, they mean consuming less oil. President Biden said last week that the war in Ukraine is a reminder that “we need to become energy independent” and “should motivate us to accelerate the transition to clean energy.” The left’s climate policies would render the U.S. more, not less, vulnerable to potentially hostile dictators. Last week’s surge in nickel prices offered a preview of the dangers of relying too much on renewables.

 

Russia supplies about 20% of the world’s class 1 nickel, which is at least 99.8% pure. It is used mainly in stainless steel but is also a critical element in batteries, including those used in electric vehicles. More advanced electric-car batteries that store more energy need more nickel.

 

Read more here: https://www.wsj.com/articles/russia-can-hold-nickel-hostage-metals-mining-environment-china-class-domestic-electric-vehicles-11647287911

 

8 minutes ago, Dashinka said:

When you mention that to a true “greenie” their response is almost always ‘we will just recycle the batteries’, of course knowing nothing about how much energy it takes to recover these minerals which is usually much more expensive than mining for new.  For some reason they think batteries are built to easily separate.

It actually reminds me of the "no fly zone thing" - there's cognitive dissonance between something that sounds like a great idea in theory versus the material reality of it. I'm pretty sure everyone at this point agrees that fossil fuels are a problem - vast supplies seem to be mostly located in dictatorships/authoritarian counties, they pollute, the price is controlled by volatile markets, etc etc. However, jumping on the green/eco bandwagon merely raises other issues. Humanitarian questions about supplies/resources for that, also costs/infrastructure which are not built overnight, nuclear has always been a hot potato between "we might blow up the earth accidentally/storing nuclear waste is an issue" and "but it's cheap and the best we have right now", etc etc. Also, we can't build nuclear cars, lol, so there really isn't a truly "green" car that exists yet. There's certainly no easily solution here. Europe's dependence on Russia gas and oil has kind of brought this all to the forefront again in light of the invasion. I still bet that the gas and oil will continue to flow to Europe no matter how badly Russia beats up Ukraine, because they simply do not have another choice right now.

[Neonred 3,576]

1 hour ago, Mike E said:

 

The USA at least has vast wastelands that are bleached with sunshine.  

California?

1 hour ago, Mike E said:

 

Solar makes sense on a planet with 800 million people, not 8 billion.  

Making the case for a couple more raging pandemics?

[Mike E 11,741]

1 minute ago, Neonred said:

California?

much of it yes.  

 

Also much Arizona, Nevada, Utah, Colorado, New Mexico, Montana, Wyoming, North Dakota.  
 

1 minute ago, Neonred said:

Making the case for a couple more raging pandemics?

The last one has killed 6 million and counting. That’s not going to cut it.  I’m confident in the ability of Xi and Vlad to erase 6 billion people.  

[Dashinka 24,629]

24 minutes ago, millefleur said:

Exactly.....so, sanction issues again which might blowback and hit us in the face, should we opt for that.

 

Russia Can Hold Nickel Hostage

When Republicans talk about securing America’s “energy independence,” they mean pumping more oil. When Democrats do, they mean consuming less oil. President Biden said last week that the war in Ukraine is a reminder that “we need to become energy independent” and “should motivate us to accelerate the transition to clean energy.” The left’s climate policies would render the U.S. more, not less, vulnerable to potentially hostile dictators. Last week’s surge in nickel prices offered a preview of the dangers of relying too much on renewables.

 

Russia supplies about 20% of the world’s class 1 nickel, which is at least 99.8% pure. It is used mainly in stainless steel but is also a critical element in batteries, including those used in electric vehicles. More advanced electric-car batteries that store more energy need more nickel.

 

Read more here: https://www.wsj.com/articles/russia-can-hold-nickel-hostage-metals-mining-environment-china-class-domestic-electric-vehicles-11647287911

 

It actually reminds me of the "no fly zone thing" - there's cognitive dissonance between something that sounds like a great idea in theory versus the material reality of it. I'm pretty sure everyone at this point agrees that fossil fuels are a problem - vast supplies seem to be mostly located in dictatorships/authoritarian counties, they pollute, the price is controlled by volatile markets, etc etc. However, jumping on the green/eco bandwagon merely raises other issues. Humanitarian questions about supplies/resources for that, also costs/infrastructure which are not built overnight, nuclear has always been a hot potato between "we might blow up the earth accidentally/storing nuclear waste is an issue" and "but it's cheap and the best we have right now", etc etc. Also, we can't build nuclear cars, lol, so there really isn't a truly "green" car that exists yet. There's certainly no easily solution here. Europe's dependence on Russia gas and oil has kind of brought this all to the forefront again in light of the invasion. I still bet that the gas and oil will continue to flow to Europe no matter how badly Russia beats up Ukraine, because they simply do not have another choice right now.

Just look at Norilsk.  This town is an environmental catastrophe.  There are other examples of areas of China where rare-earths are mined as cheaply as possible.  Elon of course begs for a supplier that will responsibly mine nickel, but of course he does not really care as long as he keeps selling his "green" product.  A little secret when it comes to emissions from a vehicle.  Current ICE vehicles are measured for two types of emissions, tailpipe and evaporative.  Now of course an EV has no tailpipe emissions (if we ignore the source of the electricity), but evaporative emissions (hydrocarbons HC, what we used to term "the new car smell") comes from a types of materials used in the vehicle.  Some like the tires, and upholstery are similar between ICE and EVs, but one of the biggest HC emitters are plastics, and EVs use a whole lot more plastic than a comparable ICE vehicle.  HCs are much more damaging to the environment contributing a great deal to smog.  Right now our government overlords are classifying EVs as "zero emission", they are far from that.

[OriZ 3,157]

I'll admit right off the bat I haven't been reading a whole lot of anything in here lately but just wanted to say I don't know how anyone in their right mind can support Russia here 

 

 

[TBoneTX 45,572]

Satisfying the political heat of the moment (is this another type of global warming?) has to be tempered with the reality that sources for fossil fuel and mined elements must be continuous, or the sequelae could be even worse than what are perceived to be the immediate threats.  Imagine unabated inflation and shortages in the U.S., combined with declining self-defensive capabilities.

[MarJhi 963]

22 minutes ago, OriTbd said:

I'll admit right off the bat I haven't been reading a whole lot of anything in here lately but just wanted to say I don't know how anyone in their right mind can support Russia here 

 

 

To be honest, I haven't seen anyone really "support Russia". I know much of the media likes to make the argument that if you aren't 100% behind Zelinsky then you are pro Putin. Putin is a bad guy but Zelinsky is no saint either. Unfortunately the average citizens of both countries are having their lives destroyed. 

[TBoneTX 45,572]

Zelinsky wanted to appoint Col. Porkchop (Alexander Vindman) as Defense Minister or some such, if memory serves. 🤮

[Mike E 11,741]

18 hours ago, TBoneTX said:

Comments on this amazing article, please:

https://www.theamericanconservative.com/articles/tell-me-how-ukraine-ends/

On second thought, if the invasion is going so well for Vlad, why is he begging China for weapons, and begging Syria for troops?

 

Each day someone writes that Russia will inevitably win and each day someone writes that Russia will inevitably falter (several western generals today say it will be over in 2 weeks).  
 

All I know is, the longer it lasts, the more body bags being sent to Russia.  That’s not sustainable.  

[millefleur 5,047]

27 minutes ago, Mike E said:

why is he begging China for weapons,

I don't get this one. China sending money and other aid, sure, but weapons? Russia is the one who actually supplies China with weapons, not the other way around.

 

I'm going to go with this MIT expert on China here rather than just stuff US officials say:

Russia seeks military equipment and aid from China, U.S. officials say

China buys certain weapons from Russia, especially advanced fighter aircraft and surface-to-air missile systems, said Taylor Fravel, a political science professor at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology who specializes in Chinese defense.

 

“As far as I know, China does not sell any weapons systems to Russia,” Fravel said. “In other words, Russia has enabled China’s military modernization but China so far has not contributed much to the development of Russia’s armed forces, apart from the profits of Russian weapons sales, which can be reinvested to improve Russian capabilities.”

 

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/russia-seeks-military-equipment-and-aid-from-china-us-officials-say/ar-AAV0LDf

 

The weapons thing makes no sense if what this expert says is true, but Putin asking Xi for money and other help, that I can see for sure. Also, Russia is the 2nd largest supplier of arms in the world according to this 2019 data, at 21% versus China's 5%....Russia has factories working night and day making weapons, they have a very robust military-industrial complex. I just don't buy the "Russia is running out of weapons" thing. Russia has lots of other problems here (logistics, losing people like you mentioned), but lacking weapons doesn't appear to be it. The Syrian troops request makes more sense though.

https://www.statista.com/chart/17316/share-of-global-arms-exports-by-country/

[Neonred 3,576]

9 minutes ago, millefleur said:

I don't get this one. China sending money and other aid, sure, but weapons? Russia is the one who actually supplies China with weapons, not the other way around.

 

I'm going to go with this MIT expert on China here rather than just stuff US officials say:

Russia seeks military equipment and aid from China, U.S. officials say

China buys certain weapons from Russia, especially advanced fighter aircraft and surface-to-air missile systems, said Taylor Fravel, a political science professor at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology who specializes in Chinese defense.

 

“As far as I know, China does not sell any weapons systems to Russia,” Fravel said. “In other words, Russia has enabled China’s military modernization but China so far has not contributed much to the development of Russia’s armed forces, apart from the profits of Russian weapons sales, which can be reinvested to improve Russian capabilities.”

 

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/russia-seeks-military-equipment-and-aid-from-china-us-officials-say/ar-AAV0LDf

 

The weapons thing makes no sense if what this expert says is true, but Putin asking Xi for money and other help, that I can see for sure. Also, Russia is the 2nd largest supplier of arms in the world according to this 2019 data, at 21% versus China's 5%....Russia has factories working night and day making weapons, they have a very robust military-industrial complex. I just don't buy the "Russia is running out of weapons" thing. Russia has lots of other problems here (logistics, losing people like you mentioned), but lacking weapons doesn't appear to be it. The Syrian troops request makes more sense though.

https://www.statista.com/chart/17316/share-of-global-arms-exports-by-country/

I've got to wonder if those Chinese weapons are of the same quality as everything else made in China.

[Mike E 11,741]

16 minutes ago, Neonred said:

I've got to wonder if those Chinese weapons are of the same quality as everything else made in China.

I’m old enough to remember when Japanese quality was awful and then watch while Japanese manufacturers are America’s lunch in consumer electronics, motor cycles, and automobiles.  
 

As late as the mid 1990s Chinese manufacturing quality was still so bad that I went out of my way to buy American, Japanese, European, or Taiwanese.  These days I don’t have those qualms about the quality of Chinese stuff.  I just wish that more stuff was made else where for national security reasons. 
 

If I have any skepticism that Russia is seeking weapons from China it is that if Russia buys from China, Russia’s own weapons brand is permanently tarnished, and China will moving forward eat Russia’s lunch in the world arms sales market.  
 

So if Russia does deploy Chinese weapons then the situation for Russia in Ukraine is dire, especially if Russia does win (Chinese arms sales people will be telling their customers that their kit won the war in Ukraine).   

 

 

 

 

[TBoneTX 45,572]

Maybe Russia is buying all the U.S. stuff that Bidementia left in Afghanistan, as follows:

     Our stuff ---> free to Taliban ---> sold to China ---> sold to Russia

[Mike E 11,741]

6 minutes ago, TBoneTX said:

Maybe Russia is buying all the U.S. stuff that Bidementia left in Afghanistan, as follows:

     Our stuff ---> free to Taliban ---> sold to China ---> sold to Russia

So US cast off kit is better than made in Russia kit? Does Russia have spin doctors that can sell that story?