Why are we rushing to defend Ukraine? [merged threads]

[TBoneTX 45,604]

Interesting, from VDH.  Comments?

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Have We Forgotten the Russian Way of War?

 

Masters and commanders of history who have sworn that they have defeated an incompetent, disorganized, and corrupt Russian army are legion.  For a time they seemed to have been correct.  But there is a pattern to their encounters with the Russian army that is germane to the current Ukrainian offensive.  [...]

 

https://amgreatness.com/2023/07/16/have-we-forgotten-the-russian-way-of-war/

[millefleur 5,047]

15 hours ago, TBoneTX said:

Interesting, from VDH.  Comments?

Will we soon see upscale houses in liberal communities with new lawn signs, “In this house, we believe in cluster bombs?”

 

Dark humor but it made me laugh heh.

 

 

Edited July 18, 2023 by millefleur

[Boiler 45,735]

Another excellent summary from Perun

 

https://youtu.be/1zcUe47xerQ

[Nature Boy 2.0 8,376]

21 hours ago, TBoneTX said:

Interesting, from VDH.  Comments?

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

Have We Forgotten the Russian Way of War?

 

Masters and commanders of history who have sworn that they have defeated an incompetent, disorganized, and corrupt Russian army are legion.  For a time they seemed to have been correct.  But there is a pattern to their encounters with the Russian army that is germane to the current Ukrainian offensive.  [...]

 

https://amgreatness.com/2023/07/16/have-we-forgotten-the-russian-way-of-war/

I don't really follow the news much anymore, makes me a lot happier. However I have to ask, what do the Germans have to do with this ?

[TBoneTX 45,604]

2 hours ago, Nature Boy 2.0 said:

what do the Germans have to do with this ?

You're asking whether the Germans are germane?

[TBoneTX 45,604]

How Is Ukraine's Counter-Offensive Going?  It Depends

For the most consequential conflict in the first quarter of the 21st century, the world is hopelessly uninformed about the Ukraine war.  Every media outlet has its own ideas about events in the theater.  [...]

 

https://tippinsights.com/hows-ukraine-counter-offensive-going-it-depends/

[TBoneTX 45,604]

Is Zelensky's 'ungrateful' act causing him to lose his luster?

[...] One year later, the Biden administration is addressing Zelensky's seeming ingratitude once again.  [...]

 

https://thehill.com/opinion/international/4110473-is-zelenskyys-ungrateful-act-causing-him-to-lose-his-luster/

[Pooky 3,821]

8 hours ago, TBoneTX said:

Is Zelensky's 'ungrateful' act causing him to lose his luster?

[...] One year later, the Biden administration is addressing Zelensky's seeming ingratitude once again.  [...]

Interesting article.

 

I can somewhat see things from Zelensky’s point of view. For all the military aid the West has sent, how far has it moved the needle with regard to the war in Ukraine?

 

At this point in the war, the most pertinent appraisal of the situation I have read likens things to the Western Front in WWI. Movement of the front line is slow and attrition is the name of the game. In that kind of war, a continuing supply of munitions is only useful so long as there is a continuing supply of personnel. Can Ukraine sustain its armed forces?

 

Russian tactics puzzle me. They have the weapons, they have the manpower, but their tactics leave much to be desired. I understand their air forces are built around supporting their ground forces, but they seem scared to commit in any numbers. Sure, they will lose a few, but if used correctly, they could decimate the Ukrainian front line. It’s as if they’re happy to fight a containing action and drag this thing out for a long time.

 

Ukraine, on the other hand, doesn’t have the air assets to fight the war as it needs to win. Hence the push to acquire F-16s, even though they are unsuited to the conditions in Ukraine. Without good tactical air support, Ukraine is never going to make serious, rapid headway. And Ukraine cannot afford to fight a war of attrition.

 

Where I disagree most strongly is rapid, or even immediate, membership of NATO. The war needs to be over before this goes anywhere. To grant membership now is to invite Putin to use nuclear weapons in Europe and that is wholly unacceptable. Putin is not the kind of leader to think that If NATO becomes involved, he will lose everything and back down. His mindset is that if that happens, he’ll take everyone with him. That cannot be allowed to happen and the NATO leadership is smart enough to make sure it doesn’t.

 

What the Biden administration needs to do is take a chill pill. Ukraine is fighting a war that the US does not want to and is losing good young mean and women doing so. The US is spending (other people’s) money, nothing more, to keep the war going. Maybe, just maybe, they could see why Zelenskyy might want a little more help, even if they can’t give it to him.

 

 

[Mike E 11,741]

5 minutes ago, Pooky said:

Where I disagree most strongly is rapid, or even immediate, membership of NATO. The war needs to be over before this goes anywhere. To grant membership now is to invite Putin to use nuclear weapons in Europe and that is wholly unacceptable

 

If Russia can divide Ukraine, NATO can divide Ukraine.

 

So, while not the most probable outcome, I can see a scenario where NATO cuts its losses, moves a peace keeping force into the portion of Ukraine that is 200 km from the Russian front, and then declares NATO occupied Ukraine to be a permanent part  of NATO. 

 

 

[Pooky 3,821]

28 minutes ago, Mike E said:

 

If Russia can divide Ukraine, NATO can divide Ukraine.

 

So, while not the most probable outcome, I can see a scenario where NATO cuts its losses, moves a peace keeping force into the portion of Ukraine that is 200 km from the Russian front, and then declares NATO occupied Ukraine to be a permanent part  of NATO. 

 

 

It can’t be a NATO peacekeeping force. Russia will not tolerate that and consider it almost the same as Ukraine joining NATO itself. Only bad outcomes proliferate in that scenario.

 

it would need to be a UN peacekeeping force and there ain’t no way certain players are gonna let that happen. 🙁

[millefleur 5,047]

10 hours ago, Pooky said:

it would need to be a UN peacekeeping force and there ain’t no way certain players are gonna let that happen. 🙁

Which "certain players"? I'm out of the loop with UN politics. 

[Mike E 11,741]

7 minutes ago, millefleur said:

Which "certain players"? I'm out of the loop with UN politics. 

China and Russia each have a veto at the UN Security Council

[millefleur 5,047]

3 minutes ago, Mike E said:

China and Russia each have a veto at the UN Security Council

Right, do they have a say in where peacekeepers are sent? I just assumed the UN could send them anywhere since they had them in the Yugoslav wars and also currently in Syria. But speaking of the Yugoslav wars, it seems the Peacekeepers did not really help there too much so probably not any kind of guarantee of stable peace. 

[Mike E 11,741]

11 minutes ago, millefleur said:

Right, do they have a say in where peacekeepers are sent?

my read of https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chapter_VII_of_the_United_Nations_Charter is that the UNSC decides peace keeping operations 

11 minutes ago, millefleur said:

 

 

I just assumed the UN could send them anywhere since they had them in the Yugoslav wars

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Nations_Protection_Force

 

UNPROFOR was created by UN Security Council Resolution 743 on 21 February 1992 during the Croatian War of Independence.^[2][3

 

^{https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Nations_Security_Council_Resolution_743}

 

Voting summary	15 voted for None voted against None abstained

 

11 minutes ago, millefleur said:

and also currently in Syria. 

https://peacekeeping.un.org/en/mission/past/unsmis/

 

Monitoring a cessation of armed violence in all its forms

Established by United Nations Security Council resolution 2043  of 21 April 2012, initially for a 90-day period, to monitor a cessation of armed violence in all its forms by all parties and to monitor and support the full implementation of the Joint Special Envoy’s six-point plan to end the conflict in Syria. 

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Nations_Security_Council_Resolution_2043
 

Voting summary	15 voted for None voted against None abstained

[millefleur 5,047]

It does feel a little bit one sided when just a bunch of "big players" get to call all the shots at the UN. (aka the "nuclear club" as I've heard people call it.) I understand why Ukraine feels it is unfair that Russia has a seat on the council. I was mistakenly under the illusion that the "security council" was more of a niche thing for specific matters, didn't realize they had as much say as they did.