Why are we rushing to defend Ukraine? [merged threads]

[TBoneTX 45,258]

Almost as bad as Hillary?

Russian Defense Official 'Accidentally' Falls Off of a 16th Floor Balcony

 

https://pjmedia.com/news-and-politics/rick-moran/2023/02/16/russian-defense-official-accidentally-falls-off-of-a-16th-floor-balcony-n1671217

[Boiler 45,445]

On 1/7/2023 at 10:09 PM, TBoneTX said:

Interesting thoughts.  Why wouldn't they last 10 minutes?

I lost this thread, perhaps because of the merge.

 

Just look at the resources used in Iraq to write down their air defense and this is nothing compared to what Russia can put together. Could a full Nato Air Force take the Russian system down to such an extent that they could obtain Air Supremacy, possibly but it would be a concentrated major effort and there would be losses, possibly substantial. Ukraine's system is based on Russia's, now not nearly as effective but has been effective enough to keep the Russian Air Force away. Planes like the A 10 can only operate in a permissive environment.

 

So not going to happen.

 

Ukraine basically needs a long range air to air system to keep the Russians away, they seem to be adverse to losses, so probably would not need that many planes with a long range threat to keep them back from the front line.

 

And a plane that can operate in a dispersed fashion, start building facilities for say the F 16 and they become a very obvious target that the Russians can take out.

[Dashinka 24,480]

9 hours ago, Boiler said:

I lost this thread, perhaps because of the merge.

 

Just look at the resources used in Iraq to write down their air defense and this is nothing compared to what Russia can put together. Could a full Nato Air Force take the Russian system down to such an extent that they could obtain Air Supremacy, possibly but it would be a concentrated major effort and there would be losses, possibly substantial. Ukraine's system is based on Russia's, now not nearly as effective but has been effective enough to keep the Russian Air Force away. Planes like the A 10 can only operate in a permissive environment.

 

So not going to happen.

 

Ukraine basically needs a long range air to air system to keep the Russians away, they seem to be adverse to losses, so probably would not need that many planes with a long range threat to keep them back from the front line.

 

And a plane that can operate in a dispersed fashion, start building facilities for say the F 16 and they become a very obvious target that the Russians can take out.

From what I am seeing Russia is fighting this much like they fought WWII, so I wonder when Zelensky will start asking for manpower with equipment.

[Boiler 45,445]

1 hour ago, Dashinka said:

From what I am seeing Russia is fighting this much like they fought WWII, so I wonder when Zelensky will start asking for manpower with equipment.

There is some truth to that, the war in the west and the war in the east were quite different so different lessons were learnt.

[Mike E 11,739]

Continuing the analogy, would  Ukraine  lay siege to St Petersburg?

[Boiler 45,445]

10 minutes ago, Mike E said:

Continuing the analogy, would  Ukraine  lay siege to St Petersburg?

With the help of Finland?

 

Russia may have shown impressive levels of incompetency but numbers have a competency of their own

[Mike E 11,739]

5 minutes ago, Boiler said:

With the help of Finland?

 

Russia may have shown impressive levels of incompetency but numbers have a competency of their own

Not seeing the analogy then.  
 

As for numbers the U.S. had those in Vietnam , Iraq, and Afghanistan.  All 3 were bitter defeats.  

Edited February 17, 2023 by Mike E

[Boiler 45,445]

1 minute ago, Mike E said:

Not seeing the analogy then.  
 

As for numbers the U.S. had those in Vietnam , Iraq, and Afghanistan.  All 3 were bitter defeats.  

No

 

I can see the analogy with Vietnam, Iraq and Afghanistan. Putin seemed to be assuming regime change as the end game, that did not work in any of those examples. Quite what his plan is now is unclear, it does seem this will only end with his demise one way or the other.

[Dashinka 24,480]

36 minutes ago, Boiler said:

No

 

I can see the analogy with Vietnam, Iraq and Afghanistan. Putin seemed to be assuming regime change as the end game, that did not work in any of those examples. Quite what his plan is now is unclear, it does seem this will only end with his demise one way or the other.

The one big difference here is in the case of WWII, Russia had been invaded, so public sentiment was on Stalin's side as to how to rid themselves of the invaders.  Of course a lot of the Russians were lost in the 3 years it took before the Western Front was opened in Normandy.  Now Putin was trying to sell a similar story with the Donbas area, but it is not quite the same.  That being said, Putin is a totalitarian, and needs to go, but I am not sure how that will happen with the folks he has supporting him, and the Russian government's push to stop any opposition.

[Mike E 11,739]

Governments are rarely toppled when bellies are full.  And when they are toppled the replacement government is usually worse. 
 

 

[Boiler 45,445]

Well the USSR had been invaded and a not insignificant percentage of the populace were thinking that was not a bad thing, many ended up between a rock and a hard place. And of course prior to Barbarossa they were effectively Allies. 

 

There was talk of Putin having medical issues but not sure how valid that is. Also we do not know who or what would takeover, there are potentially worse options. My guess would be that it would get messy and then Ukraine becomes an unnecessary side show, a distraction. Who knows?

 

I know I have sort of assumed history was a given, it had to be, but there are so many variables that could have changed things very substantially, some very small, so going forward the same applies.

[Boiler 45,445]

3 minutes ago, Mike E said:

Governments are rarely toppled when bellies are full.  And when they are toppled the replacement government is usually worse. 

I do not think anybody is expecting a significant change in the system, Putin will not stay in power forever and it has always been difficult to work out how the other cogs operate.

[Dashinka 24,480]

10 minutes ago, Boiler said:

I do not think anybody is expecting a significant change in the system, Putin will not stay in power forever and it has always been difficult to work out how the other cogs operate.

I definitely would like to see Putin go.  Like I told my wife, no one needs to be the head of a country in perpetuity.  

[TBoneTX 45,258]

2 hours ago, Dashinka said:

I wonder when Zelensky will start asking for manpower with equipment.

Whenever he does, he will get it, free, from Bidementia.

Later, same with a complete rebuild of U's structures and infrastructure, totally for free.

[TBoneTX 45,258]

1 hour ago, Mike E said:

As for numbers the U.S. had those in Vietnam , Iraq, and Afghanistan.  All 3 were bitter defeats.

Numbers are important, but even more so is the will to win.  For many examples, we can refer to the Muslim conquests in Europe during the Middle Ages.