DECEMBER 2021 1-129F K1 FILERS

[Gary Rich 261]

23 minutes ago, Gary Rich said:

It was denied on Sept 21st 2022. if that's the case then someone there must be looking at Dec 2021 packages because most of others remains the same ( I would like to think so.. i could be wrong) I just want to know why was it denied.

@mw & rg k1

 

and also why it was denied at that point in Sept. could it be that group made it all way to Sept and for some reason or another it was denied ( possible scammer ? ) what kind of red flag it drew.@mw & rg k1

Edited November 22, 2022 by Gary Rich

[mw & rg k1 635]

1 hour ago, Gary Rich said:

and also why it was denied at that point in Sept. could it be that group made it all way to Sept and for some reason or another it was denied ( possible scammer ? ) what kind of red flag it drew.@mw & rg k1

send me an email with the case number and I'll see if I have any history on it.   It may have been One of the more recient December Denials had an RFE from long ago which went unanswered. 

 

Speculating (of course), getting a Dec case opened many months ago would suggest Ukraine or Russia beneficiary.  No RFE response could have been relationship fell through, and Denial after so long could have been cleaning up the books.  .... maybe. 

[mw & rg k1 635]

2 hours ago, AJeane said:

Did you factor in the slowdowns for the Thanksgiving and Christmas holidays coming up?

only run for 3 weeks so far ... will be interesting to watch over the next few weeks  and holidays for sure

[Gary Rich 261]

5 minutes ago, mw & rg k1 said:

send me an email with the case number and I'll see if I have any history on it.   It may have been One of the more recient December Denials had an RFE from long ago which went unanswered. 

 

Speculating (of course), getting a Dec case opened many months ago would suggest Ukraine or Russia beneficiary.  No RFE response could have been relationship fell through, and Denial after so long could have been cleaning up the books.  .... maybe. 

I just sent it to you

[vldrnxrz 36]

On 11/19/2022 at 1:15 AM, mw & rg k1 said:

Yes, Gary ... I have tracked down some of these ....
One of the "Denials" (not expedite denials) looks like they had sent an RFE and gotten no response for a very long time and then just closed it

 

 

 

My experience is similar to Nikobe's   Packets generally are rejected if improperly filed after a few days.
It is quite possible that a case somehow got onto the "wrong pile" or that somehow a priority changed.
(remember when Ukraine/Russia conflict started?  Instantly, anyone from there jumped to the head of line)

I see only 6 (3 of which are Sept 2022 or newer updates) that involve RFE/RFER  in the latest scan.  The 3 old ones might get denied in the coming weeks.

 

For the 13 Dec case that was the surprise approval, I see:
    a RFE (Request for Evidence) was sent by USCIS September 20 2022
    Evidence Received by USCIS October 27 2022
    Approval given November 18 2022
 

Thank you so much for doing this. My NOA1 is 12/22/2021.. hoping for an update soon enough! 

[Lynxyonok 316]

9 hours ago, Gary Rich said:

and also why it was denied at that point in Sept. could it be that group made it all way to Sept and for some reason or another it was denied ( possible scammer ? ) what kind of red flag it drew.@mw & rg k1

I've been seeing a steady trickle of I-129Fs being denied at around 9 months of age across multiple submission months. My best guess is we're dealing with I-129Fs accompanying I-130 forms.

[mw & rg k1 635]

15 hours ago, Lynxyonok said:

I've been seeing a steady trickle of I-129Fs being denied at around 9 months of age across multiple submission months. My best guess is we're dealing with I-129Fs accompanying I-130 forms.

I was thinking the I-130 resulted in withdrawls rather than denials.
Of course, some of the withdrawls would also be due to relationship falling apart

 

[Crazy Cat 41,605]

19 minutes ago, mw & rg k1 said:

I was thinking the I-130 resulted in withdrawls rather than denials.
Of course, some of the withdrawls would also be due to relationship falling apart

 

I-129fs which accompany I-130s are normally closed administratively.  I'm not sure which category those fall into.

[Lynxyonok 316]

9 hours ago, mw & rg k1 said:

I was thinking the I-130 resulted in withdrawls rather than denials.
Of course, some of the withdrawls would also be due to relationship falling apart

 

(Opinion, not fact)

 

Withdrawals seem to be all over the place, however two categories seem to increase after 6 months or so: "denied" with no supporting reason and "document was mailed". I'm thinking I-130s are one of the two. Likely, the prior one.

[mw & rg k1 635]

Weekly Update: 

For December Group, only 6 observed touches this week, 3 Expedite Denies, 2 Denies, and 1 RFE

 

The USCIS seems primarily focused on September and doing some August Cleanup (first time I see a Bi-Modal distribution)

 Script does not protect against reading timeouts so do not count the actual Approved/Denied/RFE statistics but is intended

to get a sense of the general type of activity. (i.e. more RFE or more Approval/Denials) when the case is actually opened
 

Activity on untouched cases:
Week:    Was    Is    Delta   Approved    Denied    RFE        

08/06    63       51     12            6                 0           6
08/13    83       74       9            4                 0           4
08/20    169    152    17          11                0           8
08/27    342    264    78          59               1           21
09/03    359    328    31          17               0           12
09/10    407    341    66          55               0           11
09/17    709    628    81          64               0           20
09/24    716    652    64          60               0            5

 

[Gary Rich 261]

On 11/26/2022 at 10:27 AM, mw & rg k1 said:

Weekly Update: 

For December Group, only 6 observed touches this week, 3 Expedite Denies, 2 Denies, and 1 RFE

 

The USCIS seems primarily focused on September and doing some August Cleanup (first time I see a Bi-Modal distribution)

 Script does not protect against reading timeouts so do not count the actual Approved/Denied/RFE statistics but is intended

to get a sense of the general type of activity. (i.e. more RFE or more Approval/Denials) when the case is actually opened
 

Activity on untouched cases:
Week:    Was    Is    Delta   Approved    Denied    RFE        

08/06    63       51     12            6                 0           6
08/13    83       74       9            4                 0           4
08/20    169    152    17          11                0           8
08/27    342    264    78          59               1           21
09/03    359    328    31          17               0           12
09/10    407    341    66          55               0           11
09/17    709    628    81          64               0           20
09/24    716    652    64          60               0            5

 

Good day.. any updates

[mw & rg k1 635]

2 hours ago, Gary Rich said:

Good day.. any updates

Fridays (7pm PST) is when I run the scans ...

 

Doesn't seem to be any value in running them faster than that.

[Gary Rich 261]

14 hours ago, mw & rg k1 said:

Fridays (7pm PST) is when I run the scans ...

 

Doesn't seem to be any value in running them faster than that.

good morning.. i check tis morning on case tracking.. they are touching 229 group.. i'm not getting ahead of myself tho

[mw & rg k1 635]

On 12/2/2022 at 4:23 AM, Gary Rich said:

good morning.. i check tis morning on case tracking.. they are touching 229 group.. i'm not getting ahead of myself tho

Sorry ... script crashed last night and didn't check in until now ... having it running again and should have results shortly (hopefully before going to Symphony tonight)

 

[mw & rg k1 635]

For out december group, not much happening still
No significant changes observed dates ~DEC 1-3 

RFE: 1    Denied: 1  dates ~DEC 6-10 
Updated: 1 dates ~DEC 13-17 
RFE: 1    Withdrawn: 1  dates ~DEC 20-24 
RFE: 1 ~DEC 27-31 

 

Not surprising they aren't into December (my date range yet) 
as it looks like they are deep into late September.
Feeling bad for un opened cases in July as well as early august.

 

Week    Was:    Now:    Delta:    Approved:    Denied:    RFE:

07/30    84        84          0                0                  0             0
08/06    51        39         12               8                  0             3
08/13    74        65          9                4                  0             4
08/20    150    126        24              11                 1            11
08/27    260    176        84              56                 0            27
09/03    328    244        84              45                 0            37
09/10    341    266        75              36                 1            37
09/17    625    442       183            106               1            70
09/24    650    492       158            108               2            47
10/01    687    624        63              50                0            13
10/08    785    778         7                3                  0             3
10/15    662    662         0                0                  0             0