NOVEMBER 2021 I-129F K1 FILERS

[mw & rg k1 636]

Part of Weekly Update - Nov 18th, 2022 in December 2021 Filers Group

ran the unopened case script to see where activity is at USCIS.

 

Observations suggest: 
1) October will start seeing a few cases opened sometime next week.   

2) December 1-3 receipt date may see a few cases opened  in 10-11 weeks (Late January)

 

Details:

This is the 3rd week in a a row where the bulk of new opened cases has moved towards the end of year by one week.
It appears USCIS is into opening September cases now even though there are still a considerable number of untouched cases in August.

     Week:    Was:     Now:    Delta:
     08/06    64         63             1
     08/13    122       83           39
     08/20    243      171         72
     08/27    442      344         98
     09/03    612      359         253   (Most this week)
     09/10    559      407         152
     09/17    740      712          28
     09/24    724      717           7

[kcpaty 31]

Hello everyone. I have been reading this page for a while-10 months to be exact. With under 4 months before notification of approval/denial figured I'd join the party. When I initially sent petition timeline was 5 to 7 months. I'm ready like most of you for the wait to be over. 

[mw & rg k1 636]

Weekly Update: 

The USCIS seems primarily focused on September and doing some August Cleanup (first time I see a Bi-Modal distribution)

 Script does not protect against reading timeouts so do not count the actual Approved/Denied/RFE statistics but is intended

to get a sense of the general type of activity. (i.e. more RFE or more Approval/Denials) when the case is actually opened
 

Activity on untouched cases:
Week:    Was    Is    Delta   Approved    Denied    RFE        

08/06    63       51     12            6                 0           6
08/13    83       74       9            4                 0           4
08/20    169    152    17          11                0           8
08/27    342    264    78          59               1           21
09/03    359    328    31          17               0           12
09/10    407    341    66          55               0           11
09/17    709    628    81          64               0           20
09/24    716    652    64          60               0            5

[PKKS 11]

On 6/25/2022 at 5:18 AM, Nuba said:

Hi PKKS:  

 

I too had hope for October when USCIS (briefly) showed 10.5 months processing time when they changed  the display from a range to a single number. Interestingly the fine print then said that this represented their internal cycle time, which is the amount of time it would take them to process the current backlog.  Assuming that the number of cases is (roughly) constant and they were working at a (roughly) constant rate, that would have put us in late Sep thru Oct.  

 

However this brief hope was soon dashed by reality.

 

1 - Soon after posting the forward-looking 10.5 they changed to a backward-looking methodology that uses the 80th percentile of time to completion over the past 6 months. The revised number was 13. According to  detailed daily processing data obtained by diligent folks on this forum running scripts against the USCIS check status page, this 13 months is accurate.

2- In order to achieve 10.5 months going forward they will have to average on each day more than the average number of cases in the backlog.  There is currently no indication that they have achieved this rate.

 

3 - The number of June applications processed so far has been miniscule. 

 

Our best hope for a Halloween treat is that after the March announcement of the intention to reduce the backlog they actually have more adjudicators who will come up to speed this summer.

 

Hey Nuba

 

I hope you had a wonderful holiday. I guess our best hope now is a new year's, and maybe a valentine's treat. Hope you and your partner are keeping spirits high. Here's to hoping. 

[mw & rg k1 636]

It looks like USCIS has started opening previously untouched cases in October.

Most of the untouched activity is in late December

and I am starting to feel bad for Late July / Early August if the case was not opened yet.

 

Week    Was:    Now:    Delta:    Approved:    Denied:    RFE:

07/30    84        84          0                0                  0             0
08/06    51        39         12               8                  0             3
08/13    74        65          9                4                  0             4
08/20    150    126        24              11                 1            11
08/27    260    176        84              56                 0            27
09/03    328    244        84              45                 0            37
09/10    341    266        75              36                 1            37
09/17    625    442       183            106               1            70
09/24    650    492       158            108               2            47
10/01    687    624        63              50                0            13
10/08    785    778         7                3                  0             3
10/15    662    662         0                0                  0             0

 

Edited December 4, 2022 by mw & rg k1

[mw & rg k1 636]

Neighbor rebooted my PC for me at Home so posting this from Brazil (with Fiancée) 

 

Here is last Friday's opening previously unopened cases graphs.
Unfortunatly, I generally copy/paste the output of the statistics files so this was lost to me.
Maybe I need to make this an update to the script for next week).

 

[mw & rg k1 636]

Hard to get this to run from Brazil, but was able to get a weekly update completed.

 

For my date month (December), nothing really happening.

 

For rest of everyone,

 

Week    Was:    Now:    Delta:    Approved:    Denied:    RFE:
07/02     37       37           0               0                   0             0
07/09     15       15           0               0                   0             0
07/16     28       27           1               1                   0             0
07/23     18       15           3               2                   0             1
07/30     79       62          17              5                   1            10
08/06     33       26           7               1                   0             5
08/13     61       59           2               1                   0             1
08/20    111      81          30            22                  0             8
08/27    166    126         40             30                  0            10
09/03    181    176          5               1                   1             2
09/10    235    194         41             24                  0            15
09/17    352    264         88             43                  0            44
09/24    373    269        104            73                  3            28
10/01    488    357        131            83                  1            46
10/08    665    465        200           144                 0            53
10/15    659    631         28              22                 0             6

 

[kcpaty 31]

How do I know what "group" I'm in from my WAC number?

[kcpaty 31]

I also have a separate question. In my timeline on VJ it gives estimate of adjudication sometime in February 2023. However when I look up California service center on USCIS website based on my NOA1 date it says to call if after a date in April. Does that mean USCIS has until April to adjudicate or to expect adjudication in April not February. I hope that makes sense. 

[mw & rg k1 636]

Hello Fellow Visa Journey Followers.

 

Has been a challenge running my scripts from Brazil but still feeling blessed to be with my Fiancée.

We both just wish they would hurry up and get to our NOA2 (like the rest of you) so we could actually 

be together rather than just these spot times.

 

In my date group (December) there is nothing new to report (really) as  the bulk of activity seems to be in the September to October Date range.

 

 

Week    Was:    Now:    Delta:    Approved:    Denied:    RFE:
07/02    37       37         0                    0            0                0
07/09    15       13         2                    2            0                0
07/16    27       25         2                    1            0                1
07/23    15       15         0                   0             0                0
07/30    62       38         24                 19          0                5
08/06    26       22         4                   2             0                2
08/13    59       58         1                   1             0                0
08/20    81       68         13                 4             0                9
08/27    126    104       22                 17           0                4
09/03    176    147       29                 22            1               2  
09/10    194    164       30                 21           0                6
09/17    264    220       44                 35           1                5
09/24    269    211       58                 34           0                16
10/01    357    254       103               54           0                47
10/08    465    353       112               66           0                42
10/15    631    535       96                 83           0                8
10/22    679    659       20                 18           0                0

 

[mw & rg k1 636]

USCIS Has finally released its 2022 Q4 Data of all forms processed.

https://www.uscis.gov/sites/default/files/document/data/Quarterly_All_Forms_FY2022_Q4.pdf

 

 

The unfortunate trend continues where K1 Visa's are adding 1000's to the backlog quarter after quarter ... Unfortunate for new filers 
Hopefully December (my month) will start processing early in 2023.

 

[Lynxyonok 316]

6 hours ago, mw & rg k1 said:

USCIS Has finally released its 2022 Q4 Data of all forms processed.

https://www.uscis.gov/sites/default/files/document/data/Quarterly_All_Forms_FY2022_Q4.pdf

 

 

The unfortunate trend continues where K1 Visa's are adding 1000's to the backlog quarter after quarter ... Unfortunate for new filers 
Hopefully December (my month) will start processing early in 2023.

 

 

Thank you for providing hard data for this scenario. I've been talking about the backlog for half a year, only to be labeled a pessimist 😜

[Lynxyonok 316]

11 hours ago, mw & rg k1 said:

feeling blessed to be with my Fiancée.

 

Right there:

 

The most important part of it all.

[mw & rg k1 636]

4 hours ago, Lynxyonok said:

 

Thank you for providing hard data for this scenario. I've been talking about the backlog for half a year, only to be labeled a pessimist 😜

happy to send you the xls file with all the links to the USCIS hard data

[Briank22 0]

I'm sorry if someone else already made a comment or asked about this, but I'm relatively new to this site. I saw the post from USCIS a long time ago at this Link:

https://egov.uscis.gov/processing-times/reducing-processing-backlogs

 

I wonder if this will help any of us who filed this long ago, or it will only help others in the future?