NOVEMBER 2021 I-129F K1 FILERS

[Nuba 57]

3 minutes ago, Ximena Anna said:

That's so fascinating! Where did you find that data? 

For daily updates, see the scans of USCIS processing in the July and August subforms adjacent to this one.  These are performed programmatically  by VJ members using custom scripts. Would bet we know USCIS progress better than USCIS itself

 

To see the dates currently being processed based on VJ self reported data, look for K1 items on the Timelines page. This is consistent with the daily scan data, which is not limited to VJ members.

https://www.visajourney.com/timeline/

 

Hope this helps.

[Nuba 57]

Quick update from a data dude. There is no indication yet of any speed up with the start of the new fiscal year Oct 1. The self reported time in VJ show the delay is inching closer to 14.5 months. Moreover, apparently due to overzealous code jockeys running many scans, it seems that USCIS has made changes to their web site so that the scanning scripts no longer work.  Hard to blame them since this was probably overloading their servers.  OTOH they could  run the same scripts themselves nightly and post the results but transparency to the people who actually pay their salaries with our fees isn't on the menu. 

 

Unless something changes we should expect to see the reported processing time change to 14.5 months by early Nov.  For reference, when I filed last Nov the reported time was 6-8 months. Since then the processing time has consistently increased by .5 month every month on average. If this continues we will be lucky to be processed in Feb .

[John007 3]

On 10/12/2022 at 4:54 AM, Nuba said:

Quick update from a data dude. There is no indication yet of any speed up with the start of the new fiscal year Oct 1. The self reported time in VJ show the delay is inching closer to 14.5 months. Moreover, apparently due to overzealous code jockeys running many scans, it seems that USCIS has made changes to their web site so that the scanning scripts no longer work.  Hard to blame them since this was probably overloading their servers.  OTOH they could  run the same scripts themselves nightly and post the results but transparency to the people who actually pay their salaries with our fees isn't on the menu. 

 

Unless something changes we should expect to see the reported processing time change to 14.5 months by early Nov.  For reference, when I filed last Nov the reported time was 6-8 months. Since then the processing time has consistently increased by .5 month every month on average. If this continues we will be lucky to be processed in Feb .

Hi Nuba, when do I need to fill out I-134 Affidavit of Support?  Is that once I get NOA2?

[Nuba 57]

2 hours ago, John007 said:

Hi Nuba, when do I need to fill out I-134 Affidavit of Support?  Is that once I get NOA2?

I don't claim to be an expert although this is my second time through the K1 process (long story). Yes, the I-134 is completed after the NOA2 and will be included in the packet you submit to the embassy for your interview.

 

There is an excellent guide to the K-1 process here on VJ that covers this and many other points.  The associated K1 flowchart is also very clear.  I encourage you to read through them to know what's coming when we finally get past NOA2.

 

Hope this helps.

 

 

[John007 3]

9 minutes ago, Nuba said:

I don't claim to be an expert although this is my second time through the K1 process (long story). Yes, the I-134 is completed after the NOA2 and will be included in the packet you submit to the embassy for your interview.

 

There is an excellent guide to the K-1 process here on VJ that covers this and many other points.  The associated K1 flowchart is also very clear.  I encourage you to read through them to know what's coming when we finally get past NOA2.

 

Hope this helps.

 

 

You are an expert in my book!  😜. Big relief on my end 😂 As always Thank you!

[SeaSing 26]

I am starting to follow this youtuber doing data analysis on I-129F applications. It may be of interest to some commenting in this November Thread: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jtQKxFji3HI

Key projections for Nov 21' filers starts at 04:26 mark. 

 

 

[Kiana & Katarina 192]

Hi guys, just to let you all know that we have a September/October/November filers group chat on Whatsapp if you want to join to talk more! (other months are welcome to join as well) https://chat.whatsapp.com/KltAm23lE6IIcS2sOpk2e1 feel free to join 

[Nuba 57]

Beginning of month update from fellow Nov filer and data dude. First the bad news.  According to VJ self-reported data and scans of USCIS site by individual members, over October the delay in processing I129F has slipped to 14.5 months. This is not yet being reported on the USCIS processing time site but don't be surprised to see it shortly unless things pick up..

 

In Mar USCIS announced their intent to reduce I129F processing time to 6 months over the fiscal year that started in Oct.  The final tallies aren't in yet but there are some indications that I129F processing did pick up in Oct.  The outstanding cases for months prior to Jul have been whittled down and Jul doesn't have all that far to go.  There are some signs that the abnormally high rate of RFEs we saw over the summer is abating.  These trends, if accurate, would free more resources to work on the current processing month, which is August. And indeed we did see a surge in late Aug cases processed in the last week or so.  I've been fooled before but I am hoping to see the delay stop increasing in the next few weeks.

 

TL;DR: Next key indicator is when they start processing Sep which I don't expect before mid Nov but hope springs eternal.

Edited November 1, 2022 by Nuba

[Nuba 57]

Sorry to report that reported processing time has just changed to 15 months.

Edited November 3, 2022 by Nuba

[Kwilso25 1]

5 hours ago, Nuba said:

Sorry to report that reported processing time has just changed to 15 months.

To think when we started it was less than half that. At this point I am just glad I can stay here in Peru with my fiancé and await out baby girl in January. Would be blessed to get approved by her birthday 🙏🏾

[Nuba 57]

As things are going with USCIS, we will be lucky to see Feb.

[Nuba 57]

A bit of encouraging news. First approvals from early Sep are being reported.

[mw & rg k1 636]

On 11/5/2022 at 12:21 PM, Nuba said:

A bit of encouraging news. First approvals from early Sep are being reported.

Later today, I will be posting an update in the Dec Group showing where USCIS is opening cases for the first time. Last week the majority was around 8/20 with side lobes +/‐ 2 weeks for the majority of them ... There are a few lucky early processing cases and a few unlucky ones too ... would you guys like this post here as well being that it is general activity as it is not month specific?  this was last weeks scan showing where the untouched cases are and where they are seeming to have the majority of focus.

[mw & rg k1 636]

On 11/5/2022 at 6:21 AM, Nuba said:

 

here is the update for this week showing where previously untouched cases are being processed (regardless of what next step occurs, I.e. RFE, Approved, Denied, etc)

 

If useful, you will find this update regularly by me in the December 2021 k1 forum.

 

[mw & rg k1 636]

Added some statistic calculation for updates of the above on going.
In general this will be found in the December 2021 k1 Forum even though it applies to us all 

 

Max (previously untouched) cases opened :    124
        Occurring week of:     2021-08-27

Total (previously untouched) cases opened :    421
Standard Deviation (grouped by week) :  27
Variance (grouped by week) :  755