NOVEMBER 2021 I-129F K1 FILERS

[PKKS 11]

13 hours ago, Nuba said:

Hi PKKS:  

 

I too had hope for October when USCIS (briefly) showed 10.5 months processing time when they changed  the display from a range to a single number. Interestingly the fine print then said that this represented their internal cycle time, which is the amount of time it would take them to process the current backlog.  Assuming that the number of cases is (roughly) constant and they were working at a (roughly) constant rate, that would have put us in late Sep thru Oct.  

 

However this brief hope was soon dashed by reality.

 

1 - Soon after posting the forward-looking 10.5 they changed to a backward-looking methodology that uses the 80th percentile of time to completion over the past 6 months. The revised number was 13. According to  detailed daily processing data obtained by diligent folks on this forum running scripts against the USCIS check status page, this 13 months is accurate.

2- In order to achieve 10.5 months going forward they will have to average on each day more than the average number of cases in the backlog.  There is currently no indication that they have achieved this rate.

 

3 - The number of June applications processed so far has been miniscule. 

 

Our best hope for a Halloween treat is that after the March announcement of the intention to reduce the backlog they actually have more adjudicators who will come up to speed this summer.

 

Yeah! Totally agree. I am hoping for a late october, early november... and last resort december. I am really hoping for what happened last month to be the norm where they randomly started working on june cases mid-may. If that becomes more the norm... than Halloween is hopeful!

 

Honestly, I am just dying for them to finally be done with March and April... cause that had dragged on a bit.

 

Here's to a wishful rest of our summer! 🤞🏾🥂

[Nuba 57]

Encouraging K1 processing data reported by member DSBeijing (see their graph reproduced below)

 

A few observations:

 

1 -  Big jumps in cases processed in May and June.  Seems USCIS is actually accelerating as they said they would  in March.

 

2 -  In June they were just short of the break-even number to keep the backlog from growing further past the current 13 months.

 

3 - If we see a similar jump in July the backlog will actually start to decrease (holding our breath)

 

4 - If there continue to be jumps over the summer we November filers may yet get a Halloween treat!

 

Stay tuned...

 

Edited July 6, 2022 by Nuba

[Kiana & Katarina 192]

46 minutes ago, Nuba said:

Encouraging K1 processing data reported by member DSBeijing (see their graph reproduced below)

 

A few observations:

 

1 -  Big jumps in cases processed in May and June.  Seems USCIS is actually accelerating as they said they would  in March.

 

2 -  In June they were just short of the break-even number to keep the backlog from growing further past the current 13 months.

 

3 - If we see a similar jump in July the backlog will actually start to decrease (holding our breath)

 

4 - If there continue to be jumps over the summer we November filers may yet get a Halloween treat!

 

Stay tuned...

 

Ohh, I hope you're right about that. I'm an October '21 filer myself, so I've been anticipating that it will be early January when we see an NOA2.. This is definitely good news but I'm trying not to get my hopes up too much. Let's just stay positive and hope they keep progressing!

[Sam Burns 157]

Hi Nuba, where are you getting the barchart diagram from, is there a website or is this your own data?

Thanks

[Nuba 57]

See the original post here:
 

 

[Nuba 57]

Notes from a data dude gleaned from recent daily scans published elsewhere on VJ.

 

-  The never ending swamp of Apr/May seems finally to be  moving to the rearview mirror.  Recent Apr updates are follow-ups on previous RFEs. Although May processing is far rom complete. the bulk is now focused later in the month.

 

-  As of yesterday USCIS began processing June in earnest . This gives some hope that this is the month that the K1 delay finally levels off. My hope is that the VJ estimate peaks at around 410 days.

 

-  The high percentage of RFEs in newly touched cases occurring since May continues. My guess is that recently hired/trained adjudicators are erring on the side of caution.  Let's hope this returns to previous levels by the end of the year.

 

I continue to be optimistic that we will get Christmas presents and possibly something to be thankful for besides turkey.

[novfiler 17]

Case processing times have once again been increased! This is starting to feel like a never ending process - when we filed in November, case processing times were supposedly 6 months... Is there anyone more knowledgable about this able to provide an educated guess as to how long we'll be waiting? At this point, case processing times have been increased countless times and I'm finally getting why people are losing hope.

[Nuba 57]

6 hours ago, novfiler said:

Case processing times have once again been increased! This is starting to feel like a never ending process - when we filed in November, case processing times were supposedly 6 months... Is there anyone more knowledgable about this able to provide an educated guess as to how long we'll be waiting? At this point, case processing times have been increased countless times and I'm finally getting why people are losing hope.

 

Yeah it's discouraging. I watch the data pretty closely and the revision to 13.5 months wasn't unexpected since that is what the VJ internal data has been showing for a few weeks. The bigger problem is that although the pace of processing has picked up over the past few months, it still hasn't reached the point there the time frame will stop extending. I had hoped this inflection point would be this month but the daily processing counts for July have been disappointing thus far.  Right now the best we November filers can hope for is a Christmas present. 

 

One silver lining is that the processing times for the next steps in our journey are all shrinking consistently:  Employment Authorization, Advance Parole and Adjustment of Status.  So once we get past this interminable phase, the following steps should be more reasonable. 

[Nuba 57]

Update from fellow Nov 2021 filer and data dude:

 

No good news to report. Contrary to my hopes after several months of increasing numbers of I129F cases processed, in July things actually regressed a bit. USCIS upped their timeframe to 13.5 months and fewer cases were processed in July than in June.  The data available here on VJ show that the delay has still not leveled off. It is currently at about 13 months and three weeks and still increasing.

 

At this rate we will be lucky to have a New Year celebration. Maybe August will bring better news and we won't see an increase to 14 months in the posted time.

Edited August 7, 2022 by Nuba
typo

[Bakyt 0]

There are some case that got approved in March and August for November 2021 filers. I wonder why it took them so fast to get approved. Maybe they know someone at USCIS? 

[Chancy 6,243]

24 minutes ago, Bakyt said:

There are some case that got approved in March and August for November 2021 filers. I wonder why it took them so fast to get approved. Maybe they know someone at USCIS? 

 

The beneficiary could be Ukrainian.  Because of the war situation, cases with Ukrainian beneficiaries get expedited automatically.

 

[Nuba 57]

August was another discouraging month for us Nov filers. According to data posted here on VJ,  processing time for K1 has still not leveled off and the wait time is now at or close to 14 months. We shouldn't be surprised to see USCIS raise their posted time to 14 months in the next week or two. 

 

Unless something changes soon, we are looking at Jan for NOA2 at best.  Although promises from Mar to lower the times are hollow for K1, at least the processing times for the following steps continue to decrease.

[Kwilso25 1]

Hello everyone I know I need to create a timeline and all that just joining now so 

NOA1 date : November 17, 2021

 

Couple questions. From the google doc sheet it seems like RFE sent are going through the roof for July why is that? I see the other months had minimal RFEs sent.

 

Also my fiancé is from Peru, actually we are both here waiting and she is 5 months pregnant. Has anyone else dealt with Peru embassy and know anything about wait times for interviews (like Mexico but hopefully not the horror stories I’ve heard and seen of 2 years for an interview). 
 

Lastly I have been looking up info on how to get the passport for my newborn girl when she gets here in January so that we just have to get my fiancé visa and we can all finally go to the US as a family, is that process pretty straight forward since I am the father and a US citizen? Thanks guys and hang in there we will get through this! 
 

PS really appreciate you guys filling in the data and making updates i think I follow like 3 or 4 different groups waiting for this I-129f and it’s inspiring and helpful to know others are passionate about the process as well. When we all filed it said 3-5 months and now it seems like it may never happen but we gotta keep the faith. 

 

 

[J and E Visa 10]

11 hours ago, Kwilso25 said:

Couple questions. From the google doc sheet it seems like RFE sent are going through the roof for July why is that? I see the other months had minimal RFEs sent.

 

 

 

The best theory I've seen online for the increase in RFEs is that it's due to the new staff that USCIS has been training to adjudicate the backlogged I-129F cases. As newbies, they're probably erring on the side of caution and sending RFEs on cases that maybe more seasoned adjudicators would have accepted. The hope is that this means the RFE rate will start to decrease as the new staff gain confidence in what they're doing. 

 

Also, welcome to the waiting club! My fiancé is from Mexico so we've got that extra backlog to look forward to...Hang in there--hoping for a healthy pregnancy and arrival of your baby.

Edited September 14, 2022 by selember

[John007 3]

On 9/14/2022 at 9:58 AM, selember said:

The best theory I've seen online for the increase in RFEs is that it's due to the new staff that USCIS has been training to adjudicate the backlogged I-129F cases. As newbies, they're probably erring on the side of caution and sending RFEs on cases that maybe more seasoned adjudicators would have accepted. The hope is that this means the RFE rate will start to decrease as the new staff gain confidence in what they're doing. 

 

Also, welcome to the waiting club! My fiancé is from Mexico so we've got that extra backlog to look forward to...Hang in there--hoping for a healthy pregnancy and arrival of your baby.