Great Belarusian Battle Royale

[slavaskii 886]

Surprised this isn't a bigger topic here in the US. The likelihood of this spiraling out of control is absolutely insane, I'd love some of your thoughts as well. In the arena we have:

 

Belarus

Still furious over sanctions imposed in summer 2020 and as a result of the grounding of Protasevich's flight, Belarus has come up with an ingenious way of both raising money for their government and trying to force Europe's hand. I don't know why nobody believed Luka, but he made good on his promise to flood Europe with "migrants and drugs"; the drugs, I'm sure, we'll see soon.  At Belarus' border right now we have thousands of migrants, with more coming every day. My assumption is they're being taken on buses straight from Minsk from the border, though I'm not sure how some are getting lost in the forest and starving. Regardless, it's clear they're being directed to the Polish border one way or another, and are even being fashioned with bolt-cutters as a send-off gift. Oh, and one other thing - Belarus controls the gas line linking Europe to Russia. Did I mention it's freezing cold and Belarus just today announced they will shut off the line if they don't get what they want?

 

Poland

The gateway to the European Union and strong supporter of the Belarusian opposition, Poland immediately secured its borders with fences and troops. Absolutely no indication the PiS government will back down (nor should they - this is a carefully organized scheme). Currently in the middle of a judicial spat with the European courts, Poland, surprisingly, seems to have gotten the backing of the major EU powerhouses here over the crisis. No suggestion's been made for Poland to open the borders to asylum seekers, and it's doubtful they will. Polish troops have attempted to get the migrants to disperse and expressly told them they won't be allowed in, but this has been to no avail. Border crossings with Belarus will soon be closed. 

 

The Migrants

Each of the individuals at the border are purchasers of the 'Minsk Fun-Pass', an out-of-this world tourism experience that truly gives visitors the 'Belarusian experience'. Joking. Or am I? These individuals buy 'tour packages' in their home countries for well over $1,000, officially becoming "tourists" to visit Belarus. In actuality, they all know once they get to Belarus, they've been promised easy smuggling into Europe. Do they believe the bad things will happen to them? No, I don't believe so. But they do know Poland's not budging. As a personal note, I've been in Istanbul Airport several times since this crisis began and have seen the flights to Minsk filled with these people. They all know what's happening, but regardless of their complicity in funneling money to the Belarusian government, the fact remains that there's now thousands of them stranded at the border in horrific conditions - and all the flights to Minsk for the next few days are filled with more.

 

Russia

Lavrov: "If you [EU] pay off Belarus, perhaps the problem will go away?" Though having (likely) known about this plan all along, the Russians are probably shellshocked at the effectiveness of Belarus' execution. Ever their #1 fan, Russia appears ready to support Belarus with however this goes, though it's quite difficult to maintain ignorance when Belarus is literally admitting to bringing these people in themselves (after all, look at a map: how else is this possible?). Russia's solution is to deploy nuclear-capable bombers to the region and likely offer the support of its own soldiers if matters go from bad to worse, but like... have they bitten off more than they can chew here?

 

Ukraine

We all know what happens when something goes wrong somewhere in Eastern Europe: Ukraine gets the short end of the stick. Apparently Ukraine has already begun military drills and guarding its borders; as they should, for if something sours with the Polish border, dumping the migrants somewhere in a forest south of Belarus sounds like an extraordinary appealing option that not too many would be able to protest. In fact, I sincerely do see the crisis heading this way.

 

USA

Apparently disinterested, I'm not really sure why this isn't topic #1 for American foreign policy. This is effectively North Korea launching a nuke over Japan, except the nuke actually will explode and it will prolong itself over a period of weeks. Lets also not forget that this crisis, unlike those involving a North Korean missile scare, involves a hefty price - the Polish border wall will cost nearly $400 million to construct, and I'm sure having to pay a penalty just to deal with Belarus is in nobody's interest. 

 

How on earth will this end? 

[TBoneTX 45,308]

Lotta stuff going on...

[Nature Boy 2.0 8,370]

37 minutes ago, TBoneTX said:

Lotta stuff going on...

Too much 

[Neonred 3,564]

I am a little behind.

 

I'm still focused on the percent of the population of Belarus that died during WW II.  About 25%.  The greatest of any country.

 

My wife won't let me forget about how many people were lost by the Soviet Union during that war.  Most Americans seem to think the US won the war against Germany single handed.

 

 

[Rosalind F 178]

I feel bad for migrants trapped in the political games. Forests over there must be pretty cold right now. 

I absolutely despise Lukashenko but I think forcing EU to deal with him is quiet a trick. 

[Nature Boy 2.0 8,370]

1 hour ago, Neonred said:

I am a little behind.

 

I'm still focused on the percent of the population of Belarus that died during WW II.  About 25%.  The greatest of any country.

 

My wife won't let me forget about how many people were lost by the Soviet Union during that war.  Most Americans seem to think the US won the war against Germany single handed.

 

 

The siege of Stalingrad was a horror story . People eating rats and what not 

[Boiler 45,525]

You forgot Germany the end destination, does not seem many if any want to go to Poland.

[slavaskii 886]

2 hours ago, Boiler said:

You forgot Germany the end destination, does not seem many if any want to go to Poland.

Yes, you're correct about this; honestly I anticipated that Germany would be pressuring Poland to let them through, I'm quite surprised that even they're standing firm. I saw some pictures yesterday of migrants on the Belarusian side with signs that said "we're sorry, Poland"... not sure how orchestrated that was, but still, it drove the point home none of them see Poland as the final destination. 

 

I think it also speaks to the fact the thousands trapped there see the writing on the wall and realize they're stuck between a rock in a hard place. I'd reckon if given the opportunity, a substantial portion of the migrants would return back to Minsk. But that's clearly not an option anymore.

 

Also, don't have a source to confirm, but I read somewhere on a social media thread that two Russian paratroopers died outside Grodno. Very interested to verify this because Putin's patience is most certainly wearing thin.

[Boiler 45,525]

I think it is really up to the EU to knock heads together and allow them to exercise their human rights and claim asylum in Germany.

 

My assumption is that Germany is funding the issue on the Polish border.