The dreaded DS-5535 thread for Montreal. Post here and support each other (split)

[From_CAN_2_US 1,106]

Just now, Jorgedig said:

That is not at all what I meant.

 

It is less likely that western names are going to appear on watch lists for global terrorism.

That may be true (can’t be very sure), but you are forgetting the crime part of crime + terrorism…

[SalishSea 17,745]

Anyway, the recent uptick of DS535s issued in Montreal is unique to Montreal (vs consulates located in countries with similar fraud/risk profiles), so I still believe it is directly related to credible threats.

1 minute ago, From_CAN_2_US said:

That may be true (can’t be very sure), but you are forgetting the crime part of crime + terrorism…

I am?  How do you figure?

[From_CAN_2_US 1,106]

Just now, Krisara said:

I am puzzled by this as I thought full background checks are completed at the NVC stage?  If there was any question about possible criminal background or matching names, fingerprints, or any other nefarious suspicion, wouldn’t that have already been dealt with well before the interview stage via RFE?  
 

I might be wrong, but I don’t think NVC does any background check. I think they only make sure all the documents required are submitted. They don’t even confirm that the documents are sufficient, the final say is of the consulate.

 

I do wonder why they can’t do it earlier though, in all the months we are waiting for the interview…

 

[SalishSea 17,745]

1 minute ago, From_CAN_2_US said:

I might be wrong, but I don’t think NVC does any background check. I think they only make sure all the documents required are submitted. They don’t even confirm that the documents are sufficient, the final say is of the consulate.

 

I do wonder why they can’t do it earlier though, in all the months we are waiting for the interview…

 

NVC does actually does in fact do background checks.  There are multiple steps in the background check process throughout.

[From_CAN_2_US 1,106]

9 minutes ago, Jorgedig said:

Anyway, the recent uptick of DS535s issued in Montreal is unique to Montreal (vs consulates located in countries with similar fraud/risk profiles), so I still believe it is directly related to credible threats.

Thanks for reaffirming that, as I had observed that as well.

 

9 minutes ago, Jorgedig said:

I am?  How do you figure?

Your argument against the match to database being the primary reason was that if it were true then there wouldn’t be as many John Smith names as names originating in “certain countries,” because John Smith names are less likely to be on the terrorist list. But when you consider that the list also includes crime, like you later said, this argument falls apart.

 

Anyway, I actually have noticed that the majority of people (not all) targetted with DS5535, including in this group, appear to have originated from or have names from or links to specific countries. This is why I was worried of being issued a DS5535, because I have a Muslim name and lived almost half my life in the Middle East.

Edited January 1, 2022 by From_CAN_2_US

[SalishSea 17,745]

6 minutes ago, From_CAN_2_US said:

Thanks for reaffirming that, as I had observed that as well.

 

Your argument against the match to database being the primary reason was that if it were true then there wouldn’t be as many John Smith names as names originating in “certain countries,” because John Smith names are less likely to be on the terrorist list. But when you consider that the list also includes crime, like you later said, this argument falls apart.

 

Anyway, I actually have noticed that the majority of people (not all) targetted with DS5535, including in this group, appear to have originated from or have names from or links to specific countries. This is why I was worried of being issued a DS5535, because I have a Muslim name and lived almost half my life in the Middle East.

Well, and one doesn't even need official statistics to observe that the vast majority of people issued DS5535s since their inception have been from Pakistan.

[ice-qube 648]

17 minutes ago, Jorgedig said:

Anyway, the recent uptick of DS535s issued in Montreal is unique to Montreal (vs consulates located in countries with similar fraud/risk profiles), so I still believe it is directly related to credible threats.

I am?  How do you figure?

I don't believe this has anything to do with "credible threats" coming from Canada. The most likely hypothesis is that they decided to speed up clearing the interview queue  and used more liberal criteria for flagging cases to look at. The "credible threat" theory is only useful if all or a significant majority of the people who have connection to a particular country or region have been diverted to administrative processing. It simply is not the case. 

[SalishSea 17,745]

2 minutes ago, ice-qube said:

I don't believe this has anything to do with "credible threats" coming from Canada. The most likely hypothesis is that they decided to speed up clearing the interview queue  and used more liberal criteria for flagging cases to look at. The "credible threat" theory is only useful if all or a significant majority of the people who have connection to a particular country or region have been diverted to administrative processing. It simply is not the case. 

Then why is it unique to Montreal?

[ice-qube 648]

7 minutes ago, Jorgedig said:

Well, and one doesn't even need official statistics to observe that the vast majority of people issued DS5535s since their inception have been from Pakistan.

Pakistan has always been a country of concern and many always received DS-5535. However, I have no connection to Pakistan and I am not Muslim. I in fact have no direct connections to any country of concern.  The credible threat hypothesis for explaining this seems very weak. There were too many people with dissimilar stories that were caught up this time.

Just now, Jorgedig said:

Then why is it unique to Montreal?

Who can prove it is unique to Montreal? By all accounts, Montreal also had a longer, more backed up queue than many other consulates.

[SalishSea 17,745]

Just now, ice-qube said:

Pakistan has always been a country of concern and many always received DS-5535. However, I have no connection to Pakistan and I am not Muslim. I in fact have no direct connections to any country of concern.  The credible threat hypothesis for explaining this seems very weak. There were too many people with dissimilar stories that were caught up this time.

But again, why Montreal, and not consulates with similar risk/fraud profiles and similar backups?

[ice-qube 648]

Just now, Jorgedig said:

But again, why Montreal, and not consulates with similar risk/fraud profiles and similar backups?

If you are committed to hitting performance targets wherein you are supposed to clear out x% of your interview queue, something will have to give. They didn't hire *enough* officers to simply run interviews at normal snail's pace and hit whatever targets. You are going to have to speed it up more and that means everyone doesn't get as much scrutiny as they might otherwise. Or that could be the perception of the upper bureaucrats or political masters. You need to then decide how you are going to offset the increase in queue processing with security mandates. So how do you do that? That's right. Widen the criteria and divert them to *another* queue. Your performance target has now been reached.

[From_CAN_2_US 1,106]

11 minutes ago, ice-qube said:

I don't believe this has anything to do with "credible threats" coming from Canada. The most likely hypothesis is that they decided to speed up clearing the interview queue  and used more liberal criteria for flagging cases to look at. The "credible threat" theory is only useful if all or a significant majority of the people who have connection to a particular country or region have been diverted to administrative processing. It simply is not the case. 

The common link is Canada. Maybe they have intelligence that there is a security risk originating from Canada (from a Canadian citizen) and they are cross checking all Canadian citizen applicants with the database. 

Edited January 1, 2022 by From_CAN_2_US

[ice-qube 648]

Just now, From_CAN_2_US said:

The common link is Canada. Maybe they have intelligence that there is a security risk originating from Canada (from a Canadian citizen) and they are cross checking all Canadian citizen with the database. 

Well Canada indeed *Could* be a criterion that is being used, except this falls apart when you consider that every single person would be presumably cross-checked against most of these databases as a matter of course. After all, how long does it take to run a name check against a series of databases? There has to be a little bit more scrutiny to the AP than just doing a name check + country on these cases. That was already done at one or more of the points in the system. If it is the case that it was not done, they have bigger problems.

[From_CAN_2_US 1,106]

8 minutes ago, ice-qube said:

Well Canada indeed *Could* be a criterion that is being used, except this falls apart when you consider that every single person would be presumably cross-checked against most of these databases as a matter of course. After all, how long does it take to run a name check against a series of databases? There has to be a little bit more scrutiny to the AP than just doing a name check + country on these cases. That was already done at one or more of the points in the system. If it is the case that it was not done, they have bigger problems.

I believe there is an algorithm they use to determine whether it is a match or not. Should “John” be on the list for example, it’s not like every single John who applies for a US visa is flagged. It checks them on other parameters, and once it crosses a certain threshold, DS-5535 is triggered. It may be that being a Canadian citizen because of recent intelligence has been pushed to a higher risk parameter pushing Canadian citizen “Johns” across the threshold…

 

I am not sure about why it takes so much time, and it might be that they just sit on it (in fact I am quite sure there is a lot of that going on.) But they need to verify that the applicant is not the same person as the person on the database. Like you said, fingerprints may not be  available, and they need to check the past history and see if there are any overlaps to indicate it is the same person. This past is DOB, education, work history etc…

 

A lot of this speculation of course…. We have too little information to be sure of anything unfortunately…

Edited January 1, 2022 by From_CAN_2_US

[BatmanFlow 481]

11 minutes ago, From_CAN_2_US said:

The common link is Canada. Maybe they have intelligence that there is a security risk originating from Canada (from a Canadian citizen) and they are cross checking all Canadian citizen applicants with the database. 

It’s crazy because said Canadians who are getting the 5535 can come to USA for 6 months at a time with no visa. My mom literally was in USA when her interview date email came. 
so if they gave my mom this due to some threat associated with something to do with her, then they’ve done a horrible job weeks before since they allowed her in the country.