Understanding USCIS I-130 processing times

[LObiadi 1]

I wanted to make sure that I am interpreting the "case processing" times correctly on the USCIS website.

My I-130 is in Texas Center. It was received 8/3/2021.

On USCIS, it shows that the average time to process at the TX center is between 10 to 13 months. 

Then under the "Receipt Date" column, it shows 10/01/2020. So does this mean, that they are backed up processing I-130 petitions to 10/1/2020, therefore the 10 to 13 months is from the 10/01/2020 date, which means add another 10 to 12 months to the posted processing time?

[arken 4,197]

Don't overthink. Go by 10-13 months processing time as posted.
 

1 hour ago, LObiadi said:

Then under the "Receipt Date" column, it shows 10/01/2020.

If your receipt date is Oct 1 2020 or before, then you can tell them "yo wat's happening, you gotta look into my case". That's it, not that they will look look it up for sure but that's the only meaning of that receipt date info.

[LObiadi 1]

On 12/23/2021 at 3:11 PM, JeanneAdil said:

 

From USCIS 

 

https://www.uscis.gov/family/family-of-us-citizens/k-3k-4-nonimmigrant-visas

 

However, because USCIS now takes less time to adjudicate the Form I-130, the current need for K-3 and K-4 visas is rare.

 

don't worry about the I 129 for Tunisia,   frontload the petition with proofs of the relationship as that will be more important 

and make sure the spouse has done all her tax returns even though she lives in Tunisia ,   she is obligated to file US taxes

Hi. So you are seeing the processing centers moving quicker now? We filed the I-130 on 8/3/21 and got the receipt letter in mail, shortly after. However, we haven't heard a thing since. It's now 6 months with no update of even an NOA2. Is this typical? I understand that the WHOLE process can take 12+ months, but I'm worried that our file has been misplaced or sitting on an empty desk. Any advice to at least be able to check that it is alive and in process?

[Chancy 6,235]

10 hours ago, LObiadi said:

Any advice to at least be able to check that it is alive and in process?

 

Enter your NOA1 receipt number here -- https://egov.uscis.gov/casestatus/landing.do

 

[LObiadi 1]

17 minutes ago, Chancy said:

 

Enter your NOA1 receipt number here -- https://egov.uscis.gov/casestatus/landing.do

 

Hi there. I have done that and it still just says that it's been received and the receipt #. Nothing else since we filed  8/3/21. 😪

[JeanneAdil 6,322]

26 minutes ago, LObiadi said:

Hi there. I have done that and it still just says that it's been received and the receipt #. Nothing else since we filed  8/3/21. 😪

then u r in normal processing times

u should create your own topic and state the type of visa and office that is handling the case

[Ontarkie 14,018]

~~Hijack post and related replies split and merged to an existing thread. Please do not post questions for your own case in other members threads.~~

[hopeJourney 14]

The processing times reported by USCIS for the I-130 should not be interpreted as the average time it takes to process a case. The reported times used a "cycle time methodology" which you can read about here: Case Processing Times (uscis.gov).

 

Basically, you pick reference month and see how many cases are pending. Then you calculate how many previous months of cases it takes to match the reference month's pending cases. USCIS doesn't release how many cases they receive each month for the I-130, but they do release quarterly cases (located here Immigration and Citizenship Data | USCIS). Let's work through a real example in the Texas Service Center.

 

In Jul-Sep 2021, Texas had 69,088 pending I-130 IR1/CR1 cases.

 

In Apr-Jun 2021, they received 21,888

In Jan-Mar 2021, they received 18,737

In Oct-Dec 2020, they received 19,653

 

21,888 + 18,737 + 19,653 = 60,278.

 

So it takes roughly 9-months (Oct 2020-Jun 2021) of receipts to equal the number of pending cases for Jul-Sep 2021. In Aug 2021, the wait time for Texas was 9.0 - 11.5 months, which is exactly what you would expect given the data USCIS provides. I understand this to mean that if you applied in Oct-Dec 2020, you should expect your case to have been processed by Jul-Sep 2021. I view this as an imperfect methodology but it likely gets you in the ballpark. I think the major issue with this method is it doesn't account for complex cases that take longer to process. Those cases will sit, but USCIS expects even those cases will be processed by the upper limit of the range. Only if a case is outside of that range can a person inquire about their case. 

 

You can imagine that if a service center receives a growing number of cases but their ability to process those cases stays the same, it will quickly grow the timeline for processing. Conversely, if they receive fewer cases or expand their ability to process cases, the time will lower.

 

The better methodology many USCIS forms use is the "Processing Time Methodology." They first calculate the amount of time it took to make a judgement on every case (e.g., approve, deny) in the last 6-months for a given form. Then they take the median of that number (50th percentile). That is the lower range. They also calculate the 93rd percentile and that is the upper range. If the lower-upper range was 9-15 months, that means that 50% of cases were processed within 9 months or less and 93% of cases were processed within 15 months or less. Interestingly, they do use this methodology for the historical processing times, but that data is provided overall for all service centers and for immediate relatives only. That information can be found here: Historic Processing Times (uscis.gov)

 

The thing I don't understand and I haven't seen addressed elsewhere is why some cases seemingly get processed much faster. Using the Texas Service Center above, you would expect non-complex cases submitted in Oct-Dec 2020 would get processed before Jan-Jun 2021 cases, but we have all seen examples of when that doesn't happen. Although, in general, they do seem to process them in a first in, first out process. 

 

Edited February 16, 2022 by hopeJourney